Prediction Analysis Report - 2025-12-10
Summary
| Metric | Value | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Games Analyzed | 2 | |||
| Correct Predictions | 1/2 (50.0%) | |||
| Over/Under Correct | 1/2 (50.0%) | |||
| Avg Margin Error | 29.0 pts | Game AnalysisPhoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder - ✅ CORRECTPredicted: 101-118 | Actual: 89-138 | Margin Error: 32 pts Over/Under: UNDER 225.5 ❌ |
Confidence: High
What Happened: Oklahoma City Thunder defeated Phoenix Suns by 49 points. Top performer: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Oklahoma City Thunder): 43 PTS, 8 REB, 4 AST. Oklahoma City Thunder shot significantly better (59% vs 39%).
Top Performers:
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Oklahoma City Thunder): 43 PTS, 8 REB, 4 AST
- Luguentz Dort (Oklahoma City Thunder): 38 PTS, 1 REB, 0 AST
- Cason Wallace (Oklahoma City Thunder): 36 PTS, 2 REB, 0 AST
- Chet Holmgren (Oklahoma City Thunder): 33 PTS, 2 REB, 0 AST
- De'Aaron Fox (San Antonio Spurs): 21 PTS, 3 REB, 1 AST
- Stephon Castle (San Antonio Spurs): 16 PTS, 6 REB, 4 AST
- Luke Kornet (San Antonio Spurs): 10 PTS, 1 REB, 0 AST
- Kelly Olynyk (San Antonio Spurs): 9 PTS, 4 REB, 0 AST
- Injury impact was misjudged
- Home court advantage overweighted
- Historical H2H may not reflect current matchup
- Recent form was not predictive
- Defensive/offensive projection was off
- Vegas line was more accurate than prediction
- High Confidence: 41.6%
- Medium Confidence: 0.0%
- [2025-12-10] San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Lakers: Reassess injury impact assumptions for San Antonio Spurs vs Los Angeles Lakers matchups.
- [2025-12-10] Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder: Winner correct but margin off by 32 points. Consider total points methodology. O/U pick was UNDER 225.5, actual total was 227.
- [2025-12-10] San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Lakers: Reassess injury impact assumptions for San Antonio Spurs vs Los Angeles Lakers matchups.
- [2025-12-10] Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder: Winner correct but margin off by 32 points. Consider total points methodology. O/U pick was UNDER 225.5, actual total was 227.
- [2025-12-10] San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Lakers: Reassess injury impact
Lesson: Winner correct but margin off by 32 points. Consider total points methodology. O/U pick was UNDER 225.5, actual total was 227.
San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Lakers - ❌ WRONG
Predicted: 108-121 | Actual: 132-119 | Margin Error: 26 pts
Over/Under: OVER 238 ✅ | Actual Total: 251
Confidence: High
What Happened: San Antonio Spurs defeated Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points. Top performer: De'Aaron Fox (San Antonio Spurs): 21 PTS, 3 REB, 1 AST.
Top Performers:
Factors That Were Wrong:
Lesson: Reassess injury impact assumptions for San Antonio Spurs vs Los Angeles Lakers matchups.
Cumulative Learnings
Total Predictions Analyzed: 10
Overall Accuracy: 41.6%
Over/Under Accuracy: 50.0% (3/6)
Most Common Mistakes
1. Injury impact was misjudged (5 times) 1. Home court advantage overweighted (5 times) 1. Historical H2H may not reflect current matchup (5 times) 1. Recent form was not predictive (5 times) 1. Defensive/offensive projection was off (5 times)
Recent Lessons (Not Yet Applied)
_Report generated: 12/11/2025, 3:19:21 PM_