Prediction Analysis Report - 2025-12-11
Summary
| Metric | Value | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Games Analyzed | 4 | |||
| Correct Predictions | 2/4 (50.0%) | |||
| Over/Under Correct | 3/4 (75.0%) | |||
| Avg Margin Error | 21.5 pts | Game AnalysisBoston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks - ❌ WRONGPredicted: 118-105 | Actual: 101-116 | Margin Error: 28 pts Over/Under: UNDER 223.4 ✅ |
Confidence: Medium
What Happened: Milwaukee Bucks defeated Boston Celtics by 15 points. Top performer: Gary Harris (Milwaukee Bucks): 26 PTS, 2 REB, 1 AST. Milwaukee Bucks shot significantly better (58% vs 39%).
Top Performers:
- Gary Harris (Milwaukee Bucks): 26 PTS, 2 REB, 1 AST
- Myles Turner (Milwaukee Bucks): 15 PTS, 0 REB, 1 AST
- Kyle Kuzma (Milwaukee Bucks): 12 PTS, 0 REB, 3 AST
- Gary Trent Jr. (Milwaukee Bucks): 12 PTS, 1 REB, 0 AST
- Injury impact was misjudged
- Home court advantage overweighted
- Historical H2H may not reflect current matchup
- Recent form was not predictive
- Vegas line was more accurate than prediction
- Steven Adams (Houston Rockets): 10 PTS, 2 REB, 1 AST
- Ivica Zubac (LA Clippers): 9 PTS, 1 REB, 1 AST
- Amen Thompson (Houston Rockets): 8 PTS, 8 REB, 1 AST
- Kris Dunn (LA Clippers): 7 PTS, 6 REB, 3 AST
- Bryce McGowens (New Orleans Pelicans): 19 PTS, 2 REB, 0 AST
- Jordan Poole (New Orleans Pelicans): 18 PTS, 3 REB, 1 AST
- Micah Peavy (New Orleans Pelicans): 15 PTS, 1 REB, 0 AST
- Derik Queen (New Orleans Pelicans): 12 PTS, 7 REB, 0 AST
- Injury impact was misjudged
- Home court advantage overweighted
- Historical H2H may not reflect current matchup
- Recent form was not predictive
- Defensive/offensive projection was off
- Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets): 26 PTS, 8 REB, 1 AST
- Spencer Jones (Denver Nuggets): 25 PTS, 1 REB, 0 AST
- Tim Hardaway Jr. (Denver Nuggets): 25 PTS, 2 REB, 0 AST
- Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets): 24 PTS, 9 REB, 1 AST
- High Confidence: 51.0%
- Medium Confidence: 0.0%
- [2025-12-11] Denver Nuggets @ Sacramento Kings: Winner correct but margin off by 17 points. Consider total points methodology.
- [2025-12-11] Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks: Reassess injury impact assumptions for Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks matchups.
- [2025-12-11] LA Clippers @ Houston Rockets: Winner correct but margin off by 13 points. Consider total points methodology. O/U pick was UNDER 222.6, actual total was 228.
- [2025-12-11] Portland Trail Blazers @ New Orleans Pelicans: Reassess injury impact assumptions for Portland Trail Blazers vs New Orleans Pelicans matchups.
- [2025-12-11] Denver Nuggets @ Sacramento Kings: Winner correct but margin off
Factors That Were Wrong:
Lesson: Reassess injury impact assumptions for Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks matchups.
LA Clippers @ Houston Rockets - ✅ CORRECT
Predicted: 104-119 | Actual: 113-115 | Margin Error: 13 pts
Over/Under: UNDER 222.6 ❌ | Actual Total: 228
Confidence: High
What Happened: Houston Rockets defeated LA Clippers by 2 points. Top performer: Steven Adams (Houston Rockets): 10 PTS, 2 REB, 1 AST.
Top Performers:
Lesson: Winner correct but margin off by 13 points. Consider total points methodology. O/U pick was UNDER 222.6, actual total was 228.
Portland Trail Blazers @ New Orleans Pelicans - ❌ WRONG
Predicted: 117-112 | Actual: 120-143 | Margin Error: 28 pts
Over/Under: OVER 240.4 ✅ | Actual Total: 263
Confidence: Medium
What Happened: New Orleans Pelicans defeated Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points. Top performer: Bryce McGowens (New Orleans Pelicans): 19 PTS, 2 REB, 0 AST. New Orleans Pelicans shot significantly better (52% vs 44%).
Top Performers:
Factors That Were Wrong:
Lesson: Reassess injury impact assumptions for Portland Trail Blazers vs New Orleans Pelicans matchups.
Denver Nuggets @ Sacramento Kings - ✅ CORRECT
Predicted: 122-108 | Actual: 136-105 | Margin Error: 17 pts
Over/Under: OVER 239.7 ✅ | Actual Total: 241
Confidence: High
What Happened: Denver Nuggets defeated Sacramento Kings by 31 points. Top performer: Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets): 26 PTS, 8 REB, 1 AST. Denver Nuggets shot significantly better (59% vs 45%).
Top Performers:
Lesson: Winner correct but margin off by 17 points. Consider total points methodology.
Cumulative Learnings
Total Predictions Analyzed: 8
Overall Accuracy: 25.5%
Over/Under Accuracy: 75.0% (6/8)
Most Common Mistakes
1. Injury impact was misjudged (4 times) 1. Home court advantage overweighted (4 times) 1. Historical H2H may not reflect current matchup (4 times) 1. Recent form was not predictive (4 times) 1. Vegas line was more accurate than prediction (2 times)
Recent Lessons (Not Yet Applied)
_Report generated: 12/12/2025, 12:06:29 PM_