NBA Game Predictions - December 11, 2025

Today's Games

#### Recent Form

Boston Celtics (15-9):

• Won 5 straight games, 6 of last 7
• Last 5: 3-2 record with +0.4 point differential
• Averaging 118.4 PPG in last 5 games
• Hit season-high 24 three-pointers vs Lakers (126-105 win on Dec 5)
• Jaylen Brown averaging career-high 29 PPG, stepped up as primary option

Milwaukee Bucks (10-15):

• Struggling significantly, 10th in Eastern Conference
• Recent results include L 112-124 @ Detroit, W 113-109 vs Detroit, L 101-116 vs
Philly
• Ryan Rollins emerged with 22-point performance when Giannis left with injury
• Significant roster turnover and instability this season

#### Head-to-Head

• Celtics won all 3 meetings in 2024-25 season
• Last meeting: Celtics 111-105 win (Dec 6, 2024)
• Celtics average 111-119 points in recent matchups vs Bucks
• All-time: Celtics lead 121-112 in regular season

#### Injury Report

Boston Celtics:

• Jayson Tatum (OUT - Achilles repair) - MAJOR IMPACT: -10 points from season
average
• Chris Boucher (OUT - illness) - Minor impact
• Ron Harper Jr. (OUT) - Minimal impact

Milwaukee Bucks:

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (OUT - calf strain) - MAJOR IMPACT: -12 points, -10
rebounds from average
• Taurean Prince (OUT - neck surgery) - Moderate impact
• AJ Green (QUESTIONABLE) - Minor impact if out

#### Key Factors

1. Both Stars Out: Tatum and Giannis absences somewhat neutralize each other, but Celtics have proven they can win without Tatum (9-3 this season without him), while Bucks have struggled mightily 2. Home Court Advantage: Bucks get +3.5 points for home court at Fiserv Forum 3. Depth Advantage: Celtics have better supporting cast - Jaylen Brown (29 PPG), Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, Jordan Walsh all performing well 4. Rest Situation: Neither team on a back-to-back 5. Offensive Rating: Celtics offensive rating of 121.9 this season is elite, even without Tatum

#### Prediction Reasoning

The Celtics have demonstrated remarkable resilience without Tatum, maintaining a 121.9 offensive rating that exceeds last year's championship season. Jaylen Brown has elevated his game to MVP-caliber levels (29 PPG, career-high usage). The Bucks without Giannis lack a true offensive hub - Ryan Rollins and Kevin Porter Jr. have stepped up but cannot match the Celtics' firepower.

The line of 9.1 points is close to accurate given both teams' star absences. I lean toward the Celtics covering because:

• Boston's 5-game winning streak and system continuity
• Milwaukee's 10-15 record shows systemic issues beyond just Giannis
• H2H dominance (3-0 last season)

Taking UNDER 223.4 because both teams will be running less efficient offenses without their primary creators, and this could turn into a slower-paced, grind-it-out game.

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Game 2: Los Angeles Clippers @ Houston Rockets

Predicted Final Score: Houston Rockets 119 - Los Angeles Clippers 104

Spread Pick: Rockets -9.4 | Over/Under Pick: UNDER 222.6 **Confidence Level:** High

#### Recent Form

Houston Rockets (15-6):

• Elite 15-6 record, 3rd/4th in Western Conference
• Last 5: Strong performance with competitive games
• L 109-122 vs Dallas (Dec 7), W 117-98 vs Phoenix (Dec 5), W 129-101 vs Utah
• Kevin Durant averaging 25.3 PPG, reached 31,000 career points milestone
• Alperen Sengun (23.1 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 7.1 APG) returning from illness

Los Angeles Clippers (6-18):

• Disastrous 6-18 record, 14th in Western Conference
• Lost 5-16 in first 21 games, worst November in franchise history
• Last 5: 1-4 record, averaging 112.4 PPG while allowing 122.4 PPG (-10.0
differential)
• L 106-109 vs Minnesota, L 98-107 vs Memphis
• Chris Paul released on Dec 3, signaling organizational turmoil

#### Head-to-Head

• Rockets won 3 of 4 meetings in 2024-25 season
• Last meeting: Clippers won 134-117 (April 9, 2025)
• This is first meeting of 2025-26 season
• All-time: Rockets lead 128-92 in regular season

#### Injury Report

Houston Rockets:

• Fred VanVleet (OUT - ACL repair) - MAJOR IMPACT: -6 points, -5 assists from
average
• Tari Eason (OUT - oblique) - Moderate impact
• Alperen Sengun (probable) - Expected to return after illness

Los Angeles Clippers:

• Bradley Beal (OUT - hip fracture) - MAJOR IMPACT: -8 points from expected
average
• Chris Paul (OUT - released from team) - Significant roster impact
• Derrick Jones Jr. (OUT - knee) - Moderate defensive impact

#### Key Factors

1. Home Court Advantage: Rockets +3.5 points at Toyota Center 2. Roster Disparity: Rockets have Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun healthy; Clippers missing their best players 3. Organizational Stability: Rockets building cohesive unit; Clippers in disarray with Paul release 4. Recent Form: Rockets bouncing back from Dallas loss; Clippers on extended losing skid 5. Defensive Matchup: Rockets can throw multiple defenders at Kawhi Leonard; Clippers lack answers for Durant

#### Prediction Reasoning

This is one of the clearest mismatches on the slate. The Rockets are a legitimate Western Conference contender with Kevin Durant playing at an elite level and Alperen Sengun providing All-Star caliber production. The Clippers are dealing with a franchise-worst stretch and significant roster turnover.

The 9.4-point spread is justified given:

• Houston's dominant home record
• LA's -10.0 point differential in last 5 games
• Rockets' 3-1 H2H advantage last season
• Clippers missing multiple key rotation pieces

Taking UNDER 222.6 because the Clippers struggle to score consistently (112.4 PPG) and the Rockets' defense is solid. Expect Houston to control pace and limit Clippers to under 110 points.

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Game 3: Portland Trail Blazers @ New Orleans Pelicans

Predicted Final Score: New Orleans Pelicans 112 - Portland Trail Blazers 117

Spread Pick: Trail Blazers -4.4 | Over/Under Pick: OVER 240.4 Confidence Level: Medium

#### Recent Form

Portland Trail Blazers (9-15):

• Last 5: 1-4 record, averaging 119.2 PPG while allowing 127.4 PPG (-8.2
differential)
• L 96-119 vs Memphis (most recent), L 116-122 vs Detroit
• W 122-110 vs Cleveland snapped 3-game losing streak
• Deni Avdija outstanding: 31.0 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 9.2 APG over last 5 games
• Better road record (6-7) than home record (3-8)

New Orleans Pelicans (3-22):

• Worst record in NBA, on 7-game losing streak
• Last 5: 2-3 record, averaging 113.2 PPG while allowing 120.0 PPG (-6.8
differential)
• L 132-135 vs San Antonio (Dec 8) - Rookie Derik Queen triple-double (33/10/10)
• L 101-119 vs Brooklyn (Dec 6)
• Trey Murphy III averaging 25.7 PPG in December since returning from injury

#### Head-to-Head

• Portland won last 5 meetings against Pelicans
• Historically even all-time (41-41)
• Both teams rebuilding, but Portland has shown more competitiveness

#### Injury Report

Portland Trail Blazers:

• Scoot Henderson (OUT - hamstring tear) - Moderate impact on guard depth
• Donovan Clingan (OUT - contusion) - Significant rim protection loss
• Matisse Thybulle (OUT) - Defensive specialist loss
• Robert Williams III (QUESTIONABLE) - If out, major frontcourt impact
• Note: Lillard and Holiday injuries appear to be data errors as both play for
Milwaukee

New Orleans Pelicans:

• Zion Williamson (OUT - adductor strain) - MAJOR IMPACT: -8 points, -6 rebounds
• Dejounte Murray (OUT - Achilles rupture) - MAJOR IMPACT: -8 points, -6 assists
• Jordan Poole (QUESTIONABLE) - Moderate scoring impact if out

#### Key Factors

1. Home Court Advantage: Pelicans +3.5 points at Smoothie King Center, but they've been awful at home 2. Injury Devastation: Pelicans missing Zion AND Murray; arguably the most injured team in the league 3. H2H Dominance: Portland won last 5 meetings, owns the psychological edge 4. Star Power: Deni Avdija (near triple-double average) vs Trey Murphy/Derik Queen 5. Motivation: Both teams in lottery positioning, but Portland playing more competitive basketball

#### Prediction Reasoning

This is a matchup between two struggling teams, but Portland has shown more fight and has the clear head-to-head advantage. The Pelicans are decimated by injuries - missing Zion Williamson and Dejounte Murray essentially removes their two best players.

Deni Avdija has been phenomenal, averaging near-triple-double numbers, and provides the type of star presence the Pelicans cannot match. Despite Portland's own injury issues, they have enough healthy pieces to handle the league's worst team.

The book line of Portland -4.4 (originally listed as Pelicans +4.4) seems about right. Taking Portland to cover because:

• 5-0 H2H record recently
• Better overall roster health
• Avdija's dominant form
• Pelicans' 7-game losing streak

Taking OVER 240.4 because:

• Both teams play at moderate-to-fast pace
• Poor defense on both sides
• Portland averaging 119+ PPG
• Pelicans games tend to be high-scoring due to defensive struggles

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Game 4: Denver Nuggets @ Sacramento Kings

Predicted Final Score: Sacramento Kings 108 - Denver Nuggets 122

Spread Pick: Nuggets -10.1 | Over/Under Pick: OVER 239.7 **Confidence Level:** High

#### Recent Form

Denver Nuggets (17-6):

• Elite 17-6 record, 3rd in Western Conference
• Last 5: 4-1 record, averaging 123.8 PPG while allowing 109.2 PPG (+14.6
differential)
• W 115-106 @ Charlotte (most recent), W 134-133 vs Atlanta, W 135-120 vs
Indiana
• Jamal Murray scored season-high 52 points vs Pacers (10-11 from three)
• Nikola Jokic: 40+ points three times in 22 games, multiple triple-doubles

Sacramento Kings (6-18):

• Terrible 6-18 record, among worst in Western Conference
• L 105-116 vs Indiana (Dec 8), W 127-111 vs Miami (Dec 6), L 95-121 vs Houston
(Dec 4)
• Maxime Raynaud scored career-high 25 points vs Rockets
• Russell Westbrook providing veteran leadership but team lacks firepower

#### Head-to-Head

• Nuggets won ALL 4 meetings in 2025 (2 in 2024-25, 2 in 2025-26)
• Nov 3, 2025: Nuggets 130-124 (Jokic: 34 points, 14 assists)
• Nov 11, 2025: Nuggets 122-108 (Jokic: 35 points, 15 rebounds)
• Jan 23, 2025: Nuggets 132-123 (Jokic: 35/22/17 - triple-double)
• April 9, 2025: Nuggets 124-116 (Jokic: 32nd triple-double of season)
• Jokic absolutely dominates this matchup

#### Injury Report

Denver Nuggets:

• Aaron Gordon (OUT - strain) - Moderate impact on defense and secondary scoring
• Christian Braun (OUT - ankle sprain) - Rotation player loss
• Julian Strawther (OUT - management) - Minor impact

Sacramento Kings:

• Domantas Sabonis (OUT - meniscus tear) - MAJOR IMPACT: -15+ points, -12+
rebounds loss
• Zach LaVine (OUT - soreness) - Moderate scoring impact
• Dennis Schroder (DOUBTFUL - strain) - Point guard depth affected

#### Key Factors

1. Jokic Dominance: Nikola Jokic has torched Sacramento in every 2025 meeting, averaging 34+ points 2. Sabonis Absence: Kings losing their All-Star center removes only player capable of slowing Jokic 3. Home Court: Kings get +3.5 points at Golden 1 Center 4. Hot Streak: Murray and Jokic both playing at elite levels; Murray's 52-point game shows explosiveness 5. Experience: Nuggets' championship core vs Kings' inconsistent roster

#### Prediction Reasoning

This is a brutal matchup for Sacramento. The Nuggets have won all four meetings in 2025, and Nikola Jokic has been absolutely dominant against the Kings - averaging over 30 points with multiple triple-doubles. With Domantas Sabonis out due to a meniscus tear, the Kings have no answer for Jokic in the post.

The 10.1-point spread is large but justified given:

• Denver's 4-0 H2H record in 2025
• Jokic's dominance against Sacramento specifically
• Sabonis, LaVine, and likely Schroder all OUT for Kings
• Nuggets on a 4-1 run with elite +14.6 point differential

Taking OVER 239.7 because:

• Denver scores 123+ PPG regularly
• Games between these teams typically high-scoring (124-132 range)
• Jokic will feast without Sabonis defending
• Fast pace expected with both teams preferring up-tempo play

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Summary

• Total games analyzed: 4
• High confidence predictions: 2 (Rockets vs Clippers, Nuggets vs Kings)
• Medium confidence predictions: 2 (Celtics vs Bucks, Trail Blazers vs
Pelicans)

Games to Watch

1. Celtics @ Bucks - Fascinating test of whether the Celtics' system can thrive long-term without Tatum. Jaylen Brown's MVP-caliber play has been stunning.

2. Trail Blazers @ Pelicans - Battle of struggling franchises, but Deni Avdija's potential triple-double makes this worth watching.

Best Bets Summary

Game	Pick	Line	Confidence
LAC @ HOU	Rockets -9.4	Spread	High
DEN @ SAC	Nuggets -10.1	Spread	High
DEN @ SAC	OVER 239.7	Total	High
BOS @ MIL	Celtics -9.1	Spread	Medium
BOS @ MIL	UNDER 223.4	Total	Medium
LAC @ HOU	UNDER 222.6	Total	Medium
POR @ NOP	Trail Blazers -4.4	Spread	Medium
POR @ NOP	OVER 240.4	Total	Medium

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Disclaimer

These predictions are based on statistical analysis and current available data. NBA games involve inherent unpredictability, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions. Key factors such as game-time decisions on injuries, team motivation, and in-game adjustments can significantly impact outcomes.

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Sources

• ESPN NBA Standings
• Boston Celtics - ESPN
• Milwaukee Bucks - ESPN
• Houston Rockets - ESPN
• LA Clippers - ESPN
• Portland Trail Blazers - ESPN
• New Orleans Pelicans - ESPN
• Denver Nuggets - ESPN
• Sacramento Kings - ESPN
• Land of Basketball - H2H Stats
• CBS Sports - Celtics Offense Without Tatum
• Bleacher Nation - Game Predictions