Prediction Analysis Report - 2025-12-12
Summary
| Metric | Value | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Games Analyzed | 7 | |||
| Correct Predictions | 5/7 (71.4%) | |||
| Over/Under Correct | 3/7 (42.9%) | |||
| Avg Margin Error | 8.1 pts | Game AnalysisChicago Bulls @ Charlotte Hornets - ✅ CORRECTPredicted: 115-113 | Actual: 129-126 | Margin Error: 1 pts Over/Under: UNDER 230.5 ❌ |
Confidence: Low
What Happened: Chicago Bulls defeated Charlotte Hornets by 3 points. Top performer: Zach Collins (Chicago Bulls): 17 PTS, 2 REB, 1 AST.
Top Performers:
- Zach Collins (Chicago Bulls): 17 PTS, 2 REB, 1 AST
- Ryan Kalkbrenner (Charlotte Hornets): 15 PTS, 2 REB, 1 AST
- KJ Simpson (Charlotte Hornets): 11 PTS, 3 REB, 1 AST
- Jalen Smith (Chicago Bulls): 10 PTS, 1 REB, 0 AST
- Isaiah Stewart (Detroit Pistons): 23 PTS, 5 REB, 0 AST
- Caris LeVert (Detroit Pistons): 22 PTS, 8 REB, 1 AST
- Ronald Holland II (Detroit Pistons): 20 PTS, 3 REB, 2 AST
- Javonte Green (Detroit Pistons): 18 PTS, 0 REB, 0 AST
- Dominick Barlow (Philadelphia 76ers): 25 PTS, 1 REB, 0 AST
- Paul George (Philadelphia 76ers): 19 PTS, 5 REB, 4 AST
- VJ Edgecombe (Philadelphia 76ers): 17 PTS, 5 REB, 0 AST
- Joel Embiid (Philadelphia 76ers): 16 PTS, 3 REB, 3 AST
- Lonzo Ball (Cleveland Cavaliers): 26 PTS, 2 REB, 0 AST
- Marvin Bagley III (Washington Wizards): 12 PTS, 4 REB, 2 AST
- Dean Wade (Cleveland Cavaliers): 11 PTS, 2 REB, 0 AST
- Donovan Mitchell (Cleveland Cavaliers): 9 PTS, 4 REB, 3 AST
- Isaiah Collier (Utah Jazz): 7 PTS, 8 REB, 2 AST
- Kevin Love (Utah Jazz): 6 PTS, 1 REB, 0 AST
- Kyle Filipowski (Utah Jazz): 6 PTS, 1 REB, 0 AST
- Svi Mykhailiuk (Utah Jazz): 5 PTS, 3 REB, 1 AST
- Injury impact was misjudged
- Home court advantage overweighted
- Historical H2H may not reflect current matchup
- Recent form was not predictive
- Defensive/offensive projection was off
- Vegas line was more accurate than prediction
- Brandon Williams (Dallas Mavericks): 14 PTS, 5 REB, 2 AST
- P.J. Washington (Dallas Mavericks): 11 PTS, 2 REB, 3 AST
- Cooper Flagg (Dallas Mavericks): 10 PTS, 8 REB, 0 AST
- Anthony Davis (Dallas Mavericks): 6 PTS, 3 REB, 3 AST
- Donte DiVincenzo (Minnesota Timberwolves): 16 PTS, 4 REB, 0 AST
- Terrence Shannon Jr. (Minnesota Timberwolves): 12 PTS, 3 REB, 2 AST
- Rudy Gobert (Minnesota Timberwolves): 8 PTS, 1 REB, 0 AST
- Naz Reid (Minnesota Timberwolves): 7 PTS, 7 REB, 0 AST
- Injury impact was misjudged
- Home court advantage overweighted
- Historical H2H may not reflect current matchup
- Recent form was not predictive
- Defensive/offensive projection was off
- Vegas line was more accurate than prediction
- High Confidence: 30.0%
- Medium Confidence: 20.0%
- [2025-12-12] Atlanta Hawks @ Detroit Pistons: Winner correct but margin off by 13 points. Consider total points methodology. O/U pick was UNDER 234.5, actual total was 257.
- [2025-12-12] Cleveland Cavaliers @ Washington Wizards: Winner correct but margin off by 12 points. Consider total points methodology.
- [2025-12-12] Utah Jazz @ Memphis Grizzlies: Reassess injury impact assumptions for Utah Jazz vs Memphis Grizzlies matchups.
- [2025-12-12] Brooklyn Nets @ Dallas Mavericks: O/U pick was UNDER 221.5, actual total was 230.
- [2025-12-12] Minnesota Timberwolves @ Golden State Warriors: Reassess injury
Lesson: O/U pick was UNDER 230.5, actual total was 255.
Atlanta Hawks @ Detroit Pistons - ✅ CORRECT
Predicted: 107-121 | Actual: 115-142 | Margin Error: 13 pts
Over/Under: UNDER 234.5 ❌ | Actual Total: 257
Confidence: High
What Happened: Detroit Pistons defeated Atlanta Hawks by 27 points. Top performer: Isaiah Stewart (Detroit Pistons): 23 PTS, 5 REB, 0 AST. Detroit Pistons shot significantly better (58% vs 46%).
Top Performers:
Lesson: Winner correct but margin off by 13 points. Consider total points methodology. O/U pick was UNDER 234.5, actual total was 257.
Indiana Pacers @ Philadelphia 76ers - ✅ CORRECT
Predicted: 103-118 | Actual: 105-115 | Margin Error: 5 pts
Over/Under: UNDER 227.5 ✅ | Actual Total: 220
Confidence: High
What Happened: Philadelphia 76ers defeated Indiana Pacers by 10 points. Top performer: Dominick Barlow (Philadelphia 76ers): 25 PTS, 1 REB, 0 AST.
Top Performers:
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Washington Wizards - ✅ CORRECT
Predicted: 124-108 | Actual: 130-126 | Margin Error: 12 pts
Over/Under: OVER 243.5 ✅ | Actual Total: 256
Confidence: Medium
What Happened: Cleveland Cavaliers defeated Washington Wizards by 4 points. Top performer: Lonzo Ball (Cleveland Cavaliers): 26 PTS, 2 REB, 0 AST.
Top Performers:
Lesson: Winner correct but margin off by 12 points. Consider total points methodology.
Utah Jazz @ Memphis Grizzlies - ❌ WRONG
Predicted: 111-119 | Actual: 130-126 | Margin Error: 12 pts
Over/Under: OVER 241.5 ✅ | Actual Total: 256
Confidence: Medium
What Happened: Utah Jazz defeated Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points. Top performer: Isaiah Collier (Utah Jazz): 7 PTS, 8 REB, 2 AST.
Top Performers:
Factors That Were Wrong:
Lesson: Reassess injury impact assumptions for Utah Jazz vs Memphis Grizzlies matchups.
Brooklyn Nets @ Dallas Mavericks - ✅ CORRECT
Predicted: 106-112 | Actual: 111-119 | Margin Error: 2 pts
Over/Under: UNDER 221.5 ❌ | Actual Total: 230
Confidence: Medium
What Happened: Dallas Mavericks defeated Brooklyn Nets by 8 points. Top performer: Brandon Williams (Dallas Mavericks): 14 PTS, 5 REB, 2 AST.
Top Performers:
Lesson: O/U pick was UNDER 221.5, actual total was 230.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Golden State Warriors - ❌ WRONG
Predicted: 111-116 | Actual: 127-120 | Margin Error: 12 pts
Over/Under: UNDER 230.5 ❌ | Actual Total: 247
Confidence: Low
What Happened: Minnesota Timberwolves defeated Golden State Warriors by 7 points. Top performer: Donte DiVincenzo (Minnesota Timberwolves): 16 PTS, 4 REB, 0 AST. Minnesota Timberwolves shot significantly better (54% vs 46%).
Top Performers:
Factors That Were Wrong:
Lesson: Reassess injury impact assumptions for Minnesota Timberwolves vs Golden State Warriors matchups. O/U pick was UNDER 230.5, actual total was 247.
Cumulative Learnings
Total Predictions Analyzed: 7
Overall Accuracy: 21.4%
Over/Under Accuracy: 42.9% (3/7)
Most Common Mistakes
1. Injury impact was misjudged (2 times) 1. Home court advantage overweighted (2 times) 1. Historical H2H may not reflect current matchup (2 times) 1. Recent form was not predictive (2 times) 1. Defensive/offensive projection was off (2 times)
Recent Lessons (Not Yet Applied)
_Report generated: 12/14/2025, 2:42:04 PM_