Prediction Analysis Report - 2025-12-13
Summary
| Metric | Value | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Games Analyzed | 2 | ||
| Correct Predictions | 1/2 (50.0%) | ||
| Over/Under Correct | 1/2 (50.0%) | ||
| Avg Margin Error | 8.5 pts | Game AnalysisNew York Knicks vs Orlando Magic (NBA Cup Semifinal) - ✅ CORRECTPredicted: 114-108 (Knicks -6) | Actual: 132-120 (Knicks -12) |
Over/Under: UNDER 223.4 ❌ | Actual Total: 252
Confidence: Medium
What Happened: Knicks won convincingly by 12 points, covering the -5.4 spread easily. Jalen Brunson exploded for a season-high 40 points with 8 assists, validating the prediction that he was "on fire." The Magic, without Franz Wagner, couldn't match the Knicks' offensive firepower.
Key Factors That Played Out:
- ✅ Franz Wagner's absence was devastating (correctly predicted)
- ✅ Jalen Brunson performed at elite level (40 pts, predicted 30+)
- ❌ Over/Under prediction was way off - game was much higher scoring (252 vs 222 predicted)
- ❌ Both teams' defenses didn't show up - 252 total points vs predicted 222
- Historic record overweighted - 24-1 doesn't guarantee Cup success
- Wembanyama return impact UNDERESTIMATED - he was dominant despite "rust" concerns
- Thunder's dominance didn't translate to neutral site knockout game
- Cup semifinal intensity favored the underdog with nothing to lose
- ✅ O/U pick (UNDER 226.5) was correct - actual total was 220
- ✅ Predicted defensive battle did occur
- ✅ Wembanyama's rim protection did disrupt Thunder
- Knicks/Magic: UNDER 223.4 predicted, actual 252 (WRONG by 28.6 points)
- Spurs/Thunder: UNDER 226.5 predicted, actual 220 (CORRECT by 6.5 points)
- Lesson: Knicks games continue to go OVER expectations due to Brunson's
Lesson: Winner and spread prediction correct, but O/U pick was UNDER 223.4 and actual total was 252. Underestimated offensive pace in Cup semifinal stakes.
San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder (NBA Cup Semifinal) - ❌ WRONG
Predicted: 115-106 (Thunder -9) | Actual: 111-109 (Spurs +2) | **Margin Error:** 11 pts
Over/Under: UNDER 226.5 ✅ | Actual Total: 220
Confidence: Medium
What Happened: MAJOR UPSET! The Spurs defeated the 24-1 Thunder by 2 points in a defensive battle. Victor Wembanyama returned from injury with 22 points and 9 rebounds, making an immediate impact. The Thunder's historic 16-game winning streak ended.
Key Factors That Were Wrong:
Factors That Were Right:
Lesson: Massive lesson - elite regular season records don't guarantee Cup success. Returning star players may have more immediate impact than expected. The spread pick of Spurs +10.5 was actually correct (Spurs won outright), but winner prediction was wrong.
Key Patterns Identified
Over/Under Analysis
Upset Alert: Thunder Loss
The Thunder's upset loss highlights several important lessons:
1. Regular season records don't equal playoff success - 24-1 means nothing in single-elimination 2. Returning stars can exceed expectations - Wembanyama's "rust" was minimal 3. Cup/playoff atmospheres favor underdogs - Higher intensity, anything can happen 4. Neutral sites remove home court blowout potential - Both correct predictions on this factor
Spread Pick Analysis
| Game | Spread Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Knicks -5.4 | ✅ COVER | Knicks won by 12 |
| Spurs +10.5 | ✅ COVER | Spurs won outright |
Both spread picks were correct! The issue was the outright winner prediction for Game 2.
Cumulative Learnings
New Lessons to Add to Guidelines:
1. Cup/Playoff single-elimination games are unpredictable - Regular season dominance doesn't translate 2. Returning star players may have MORE impact than expected - Wembanyama came back strong 3. Continue UNDER bias caution - Knicks games especially go OVER 4. Spread picks more reliable than winner picks - Both spreads covered, only 1/2 winners correct
_Report generated: December 14, 2025_ _Note: Analysis performed manually due to neutral site game detection issue in script_