NBA Game Predictions - December 13, 2025
NBA Cup Semifinal - T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
| Away Team | Home Team | Book Spread | Confidence | Key Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks (108) | Orlando Magic (114) | Magic +5.4 | Medium | Franz Wagner OUT, neutral site, Brunson hot |
| San Antonio Spurs (115) | Oklahoma City Thunder (106) | Spurs +10.5 | Medium | Wembanyama returning, Thunder 24-1, elite defense |
Note: Both games are NBA Cup Semifinals played at T-Mobile Arena (neutral site). No home court advantage applies.
Detailed Analysis
NBA Cup Semifinal: New York Knicks vs Orlando Magic
Predicted Final Score: New York Knicks 114 - Orlando Magic 108 **Predicted Margin: Knicks -6 (covering the 5.4 spread)**
Spread Pick: Knicks -5.4 | Over/Under Pick: UNDER 223.4
Recent Form
New York Knicks (17-7):
- Last 10 games: 8-2
- Dec 9: W 117-101 vs Toronto (NBA Cup QF) - Brunson 35 pts
- Dec 5: W 146-112 vs Utah - Brunson 33 pts, McBride 22 pts
- Nov 30: W 116-94 vs Toronto - Towns 22 pts
- Averaging 119.8 PPG over last 10 games
- Best net rating in Eastern Conference (+8.6)
- Offense clicking on all cylinders, shooting 49.4% from the field
- Dec 10: W 117-108 vs Miami (NBA Cup QF) - Bane 37 pts
- Dec 7: L 100-106 @ New York - Wagner injured early
- Dec 6: W 106-105 vs Miami
- 5th-ranked defense in the NBA
- Offense has struggled without Franz Wagner (averaged 128.5 PPG with Wagner vs 100 PPG without)
- This game is at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
- Standard home court advantage (+3.5 pts) does NOT apply
- Both teams on equal footing in terms of crowd support
- Wagner was the Magic's best player in the head-to-head matchups
- Without him, Orlando scored 28+ fewer points per game vs the Knicks
- His playmaking and scoring creates space for Banchero
- The Magic must rely heavily on Desmond Bane (37 pts in QF win)
- 30+ points in last 3 NBA Cup games
- 35 points vs Toronto, 33 vs Utah
- Averaging 28.3 PPG for the season (8th in NBA)
- Has historically performed well in high-stakes games
- Magic have 5th-ranked defense in NBA
- Knicks have +8.6 net rating (best in East)
- Expect a lower-scoring affair than Knicks' recent games
- Playing ~32 minutes per game since return
- Cannot fully compensate for Wagner's absence
- May fatigue in 4th quarter of close game
- Knicks without McBride lose key perimeter defender and scorer
- Magic without both Wagner brothers lose significant rotation options
- Jordan Clarkson and Tyler Kolek must step up for NYK
- Knicks' superior healthy roster
- Wagner's massive absence
- Brunson's current form
- Neutral site (no home advantage for Magic)
- Road/neutral site favorites by 5+ points are historically risky
- Paolo Banchero showed he can carry the Magic (18 pts, 7 reb vs Heat)
- Desmond Bane exploded for 37 points - could replicate
- NBA Cup games have been unpredictable
- McBride's absence hurts Knicks' bench depth
- Prediction aligns with Vegas spread (within 1 point)
- Clear injury advantage to Knicks
- Head-to-head data strongly supports prediction
- Knicks' offensive efficiency has been elite
- Currently on a 16-game winning streak (franchise record)
- Tied the 2015-16 Warriors for best 25-game start in NBA history
- Quarterfinal: Demolished Phoenix 138-89 (49-point victory)
- Best defense in NBA: 106.2 PPG allowed, opponents shooting 42.7%
- SGA averaging 32.6 PPG this season (MVP frontrunner)
- Last 5: 5-0 (averaging 124.6 PPG, allowing 100.2 PPG)
- Went 9-3 without Wembanyama over his 12-game absence
- Quarterfinal: Beat Lakers 132-119 (Stephon Castle 30 pts)
- De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper have stepped up
- Last 5: 4-1 (showing strong form even without their star)
- Has missed 12 games since Nov. 14 with calf strain
- Practiced with team in Vegas, upgraded to probable
- If he plays, expect minutes restriction (25-30 min) and rust
- Even at 60-70% effectiveness, adds 5-7 points of value to Spurs
- 24-1 record doesn't happen by accident
- Elite on both ends: best defense + top-5 offense
- SGA is playing at MVP level (32.6 PPG)
- His rim protection could disrupt Thunder's interior attack
- But first game back against NBA's best is brutal timing
- Rust and minutes restriction limit immediate impact
- No crowd advantage for OKC
- Spurs won't face hostile environment
- Thunder: #1 in PPG allowed (106.2)
- Wembanyama's return improves Spurs D significantly
- Both teams will grind for every bucket
- Hartenstein and Wallace cleared and returning
- OKC has no excuses - best roster in NBA healthy
- Wembanyama's status is "probable" not confirmed
- First game back for a generational talent is unpredictable
- Thunder could blow out anyone if they get rolling
- Per guidelines: Cannot mark High when injury uncertainty exists
- Thunder are clearly the superior team with historic record
- Line is sharp and I'm only slightly deviating from Vegas
- Both teams' tendencies point to Under
- 95.3 WDAE - Knicks vs Magic Injury Report
- ESPN - Orlando Magic Injuries
- NBA.com - Knicks-Magic NBA Cup Semifinals Preview
- Posting and Toasting - NBA Cup Semifinal Preview
- ESPN - Knicks vs Magic Pregame
- Orlando Sentinel - Franz Wagner Injury Update
- Heavy Sports - Franz Wagner Injury Severity
- ESPN - Thunder Injury Status
- NBA.com - Victor Wembanyama Injury Update
- NBC Sports - Wembanyama Probable
- Yahoo Sports - Wallace and Hartenstein Cleared
- ESPN - Thunder vs Spurs Pregame
Orlando Magic (15-10):
Head-to-Head (2024-25 Season)
| Date | Result | Key Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | NYK 106-100 | Wagner played 7 min before injury |
| Earlier matchups | ORL 2-0 | Wagner averaged 32.5 PPG on 56% shooting |
Analysis: The Magic dominated the first two meetings with Franz Wagner as the primary weapon, averaging 128.5 PPG. However, the dynamic shifted dramatically in the December 7th game when Wagner went down early - the Knicks won 106-100 with Orlando managing only 100 points. This provides a clear template for what to expect today.
Injury Report
Orlando Magic:
| Player | Position | Injury | Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franz Wagner | F | High left ankle sprain | OUT | CRITICAL - Leading scorer (23.4 PPG), averaged 32.5 PPG vs NYK |
| Moritz Wagner | F | Knee | OUT | Moderate - Bench scoring/energy |
| Paolo Banchero | F | Groin (returning) | AVAILABLE | On minutes restriction (~32 min) |
| Colin Castleton | C | N/A | OUT | Minimal |
Estimated Offensive Impact: -12 to -15 PPG (Franz Wagner's production + spacing impact)
New York Knicks:
| Player | Position | Injury | Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles McBride | G | Left ankle sprain | OUT | Moderate - Key reserve (22 pts vs Utah) |
| OG Anunoby | F | Hamstring (returning) | AVAILABLE | On minutes restriction |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | C | Left calf tightness | AVAILABLE | Played 16 rebounds vs Toronto |
Estimated Offensive Impact: -5 to -7 PPG (McBride's bench scoring)
Net Injury Advantage: Knicks (+7 to +10 points)
Key Factors
1. Neutral Site - No Home Court Advantage
2. Franz Wagner Absence is Critical
3. Jalen Brunson is on Fire
4. Defensive Matchup
5. Paolo Banchero Minutes Restriction
6. Bench Depth Concerns (Both Teams)
Vegas Line Analysis
| Metric | Vegas Line | My Projection | Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Knicks -5.4 | Knicks -6 | +0.6 pts |
| Total | 223.4 | 222 | -1.4 pts |
Analysis: My projection aligns closely with Vegas, which is appropriate given the guidelines. The 5.4-point spread accurately reflects:
Spread Pick: KNICKS -5.4
Reasoning:
1. Franz Wagner's absence is devastating - he averaged 32.5 PPG against the Knicks this season 2. The Knicks won by 6 when Wagner played only 7 minutes in their last meeting 3. Jalen Brunson is in elite form with 30+ in last 3 Cup games 4. Neutral site removes any home underdog boost for Orlando 5. Vegas line is reasonable; slight lean toward Knicks covering
Confidence: Medium
Over/Under Pick: UNDER 223.4
Reasoning:
1. Last Knicks-Magic game without Wagner: 206 total points 2. Magic have 5th-ranked defense in NBA 3. Without Wagner, Magic's pace and scoring will slow significantly 4. Playoff atmosphere (Cup semifinal) typically produces tighter games 5. Both teams dealing with key injuries affecting offensive output
Projected Total: 222 points
Confidence: Medium
Confidence Level: MEDIUM
Why not HIGH:
Why not LOW:
Final Prediction Summary
| Category | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Final Score | Knicks 114, Magic 108 |
| Spread | Knicks -5.4 (COVER) |
| Over/Under | UNDER 223.4 |
| Confidence | Medium |
| Game Character | Defensive grind, Brunson leads Knicks, Magic keep it close but lack firepower |
NBA Cup Semifinal: San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder
Predicted Final Score: Oklahoma City Thunder 115 - San Antonio Spurs 106 Predicted Margin: Thunder -9
Spread Pick: Spurs +10.5 | Over/Under Pick: UNDER 226.5
Recent Form
Oklahoma City Thunder (24-1):
San Antonio Spurs (17-7):
Injury Report
Oklahoma City Thunder:
| Player | Status | Injury | Impact | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Hartenstein | AVAILABLE | Cleared (ankle) | Major boost - starting center returns | |||||
| Cason Wallace | AVAILABLE | Cleared (head) | Key perimeter defender back | |||||
| Nikola Topic | Out | Groin | Minimal - rookie | Thunder are at FULL STRENGTH San Antonio Spurs: | Player | Status | Injury | Impact |
| ----------------- | -------- | ----------------- | ------------------------------------- | |||||
| Victor Wembanyama | PROBABLE | Right calf strain | MASSIVE - 26.2 PPG, 12.9 RPG, 3.6 BPG |
Wembanyama Impact Assessment:
Key Factors
1. Thunder's Historic Dominance
2. Wembanyama's Return Creates Uncertainty
3. Neutral Site Limits Blowout Potential
4. Defensive Battle Expected
5. Thunder at Full Strength
Vegas Line Analysis
| Metric | Vegas Line | My Projection | Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Thunder -10.5 | Thunder -9 | -1.5 pts |
| Total | 226.5 | 221 | -5.5 pts |
Analysis: The 10.5-point spread is at the high end. With Wembanyama returning (even limited), the Spurs have more value than the line suggests. Taking Spurs +10.5 provides cushion.
Spread Pick: SPURS +10.5
Reasoning:
1. Wembanyama's return adds defensive presence and scoring potential 2. Spurs went 9-3 without him - this team has depth and chemistry 3. Neutral site removes any home court blowout advantage 4. Thunder are 11-6 ATS as double-digit favorites, not infallible 5. My projected margin (9) is under the spread
Confidence: Medium
Over/Under Pick: UNDER 226.5
Reasoning:
1. Thunder have elite defense (#1 in PPG allowed) 2. Wembanyama's rim protection elevates Spurs defense 3. Cup semifinal atmosphere = physical, grind-it-out game 4. Both teams prioritize defense 5. Projected total: 221 points
Confidence: Medium
Confidence Level: MEDIUM
Why not HIGH:
Why not LOW:
Final Prediction Summary
| Category | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Final Score | Thunder 115, Spurs 106 |
| Spread | Spurs +10.5 (COVER) |
| Over/Under | UNDER 226.5 |
| Confidence | Medium |
| Game Character | Defensive battle, SGA leads Thunder, Wembanyama rust limits Spurs ceiling |
Disclaimer
These predictions are based on statistical analysis, injury reports, and current available data as of December 13, 2025. NBA games involve inherent unpredictability, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions. Key factors: Franz Wagner OUT for Magic, Victor Wembanyama PROBABLE for Spurs.