Prediction Analysis Report - 2025-12-14
Summary
| Metric | Value | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Games Analyzed | 3 | |||
| Correct Predictions | 0/3 (0.0%) | |||
| Over/Under Correct | 2/3 (66.7%) | |||
| Avg Margin Error | 26.3 pts | Game AnalysisCharlotte Hornets @ Cleveland Cavaliers - ❌ WRONGPredicted: 106-119 | Actual: 119-111 | Margin Error: 21 pts Over/Under: UNDER 235.3 ✅ |
Confidence: UNDER 235.3
What Happened: Charlotte Hornets defeated Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points. Top performer: Sion James (Charlotte Hornets): 12 PTS, 3 REB, 1 AST.
Top Performers:
- Sion James (Charlotte Hornets): 12 PTS, 3 REB, 1 AST
- Miles Bridges (Charlotte Hornets): 10 PTS, 6 REB, 2 AST
- Kon Knueppel (Charlotte Hornets): 10 PTS, 3 REB, 2 AST
- Mason Plumlee (Charlotte Hornets): 9 PTS, 4 REB, 0 AST
- Injury impact was misjudged
- Home court advantage overweighted
- Historical H2H may not reflect current matchup
- Recent form was not predictive
- Vegas line was more accurate than prediction
- Jabari Walker (Philadelphia 76ers): 13 PTS, 1 REB, 0 AST
- Onyeka Okongwu (Atlanta Hawks): 10 PTS, 4 REB, 4 AST
- Vit Krejci (Atlanta Hawks): 10 PTS, 1 REB, 1 AST
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker (Atlanta Hawks): 9 PTS, 6 REB, 2 AST
- Home court advantage overweighted
- Historical H2H may not reflect current matchup
- Drake Powell (Brooklyn Nets): 31 PTS, 3 REB, 3 AST
- Ziaire Williams (Brooklyn Nets): 28 PTS, 2 REB, 1 AST
- Danny Wolf (Brooklyn Nets): 26 PTS, 2 REB, 0 AST
- Tyrese Martin (Brooklyn Nets): 25 PTS, 2 REB, 0 AST
- Injury impact was misjudged
- Home court advantage overweighted
- Historical H2H may not reflect current matchup
- Recent form was not predictive
- High Confidence: 30.0%
- Medium Confidence: 30.0%
- [2025-12-14] Charlotte Hornets @ Cleveland Cavaliers: Reassess injury impact assumptions for Charlotte Hornets vs Cleveland Cavaliers matchups.
- [2025-12-14] Philadelphia 76ers @ Atlanta Hawks: Consider reducing home court weight when away team has clear advantages. O/U pick was UNDER 228.3, actual total was 237.
- [2025-12-14] Milwaukee Bucks @ Brooklyn Nets: Reassess injury impact
Factors That Were Wrong:
Lesson: Reassess injury impact assumptions for Charlotte Hornets vs Cleveland Cavaliers matchups.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Atlanta Hawks - ❌ WRONG
Predicted: 114-112 | Actual: 117-120 | Margin Error: 5 pts
Over/Under: UNDER 228.3 ❌ | Actual Total: 237
Confidence: UNDER 228.3
What Happened: Atlanta Hawks defeated Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points. Top performer: Jabari Walker (Philadelphia 76ers): 13 PTS, 1 REB, 0 AST.
Top Performers:
Factors That Were Wrong:
Lesson: Consider reducing home court weight when away team has clear advantages. O/U pick was UNDER 228.3, actual total was 237.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Brooklyn Nets - ❌ WRONG
Predicted: 112-104 | Actual: 82-127 | Margin Error: 53 pts
Over/Under: UNDER 219.8 ✅ | Actual Total: 209
Confidence: UNDER 219.8
What Happened: Brooklyn Nets defeated Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points. Top performer: Drake Powell (Brooklyn Nets): 31 PTS, 3 REB, 3 AST. Brooklyn Nets shot significantly better (53% vs 39%).
Top Performers:
Factors That Were Wrong:
Lesson: Reassess injury impact assumptions for Milwaukee Bucks vs Brooklyn Nets matchups.
Cumulative Learnings
Total Predictions Analyzed: 5
Overall Accuracy: 21.0%
Over/Under Accuracy: 66.7% (2/3)
Most Common Mistakes
1. Home court advantage overweighted (3 times) 1. Historical H2H may not reflect current matchup (3 times) 1. Injury impact was misjudged (2 times) 1. Recent form was not predictive (2 times) 1. Vegas line was more accurate than prediction (1 times)
Recent Lessons (Not Yet Applied)
_Report generated: 12/15/2025, 9:05:25 AM_