Prediction Analysis Report - 2025-12-15

Summary

Confidence: LOW

What Happened: Detroit Pistons defeated Boston Celtics by 7 points. Top performer: Javonte Green (Detroit Pistons): 13 PTS, 1 REB, 0 AST.

Top Performers:

• Javonte Green (Detroit Pistons): 13 PTS, 1 REB, 0 AST
• Hugo Gonzalez (Boston Celtics): 9 PTS, 0 REB, 1 AST
• Anfernee Simons (Boston Celtics): 8 PTS, 1 REB, 0 AST
• Duncan Robinson (Detroit Pistons): 8 PTS, 2 REB, 1 AST

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Toronto Raptors @ Miami Heat - ❌ WRONG

Predicted: 114-119 | Actual: 106-96 | Margin Error: 15 pts

Confidence: LOW

What Happened: Toronto Raptors defeated Miami Heat by 10 points. Top performer: Jamal Shead (Toronto Raptors): 27 PTS, 10 REB, 1 AST. Toronto Raptors shot significantly better (48% vs 42%).

Top Performers:

• Jamal Shead (Toronto Raptors): 27 PTS, 10 REB, 1 AST
• Sandro Mamukelashvili (Toronto Raptors): 19 PTS, 0 REB, 1 AST
• Scottie Barnes (Toronto Raptors): 14 PTS, 6 REB, 4 AST
• Ja'Kobe Walter (Toronto Raptors): 8 PTS, 2 REB, 0 AST

Factors That Were Wrong:

• Injury impact was misjudged
• Home court advantage overweighted
• Historical H2H may not reflect current matchup
• Recent form was not predictive
• Defensive/offensive projection was off
• Vegas line was more accurate than prediction
• Prediction deviated 10.9 pts from Vegas (>3 pt rule violated)

Lesson: Reassess injury impact assumptions for Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat matchups.

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Dallas Mavericks @ Utah Jazz - ✅ CORRECT

Predicted: 116-118 | Actual: 133-140 | Margin Error: 5 pts

Confidence: LOW

What Happened: Utah Jazz defeated Dallas Mavericks by 7 points. Top performer: Lauri Markkanen (Utah Jazz): 27 PTS, 5 REB, 1 AST.

Top Performers:

• Lauri Markkanen (Utah Jazz): 27 PTS, 5 REB, 1 AST
• Kyle Filipowski (Utah Jazz): 27 PTS, 1 REB, 2 AST
• Cody Williams (Utah Jazz): 15 PTS, 2 REB, 0 AST
• Max Christie (Dallas Mavericks): 7 PTS, 3 REB, 0 AST

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Houston Rockets @ Denver Nuggets - ✅ CORRECT

Predicted: 117-119 | Actual: 125-128 | Margin Error: 1 pts

Confidence: LOW

What Happened: Denver Nuggets defeated Houston Rockets by 3 points. Top performer: Josh Okogie (Houston Rockets): 9 PTS, 0 REB, 3 AST.

Top Performers:

• Josh Okogie (Houston Rockets): 9 PTS, 0 REB, 3 AST
• Cameron Johnson (Denver Nuggets): 8 PTS, 2 REB, 0 AST
• Jonas Valanciunas (Denver Nuggets): 6 PTS, 1 REB, 2 AST
• Zeke Nnaji (Denver Nuggets): 5 PTS, 0 REB, 0 AST

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Memphis Grizzlies @ LA Clippers - ✅ CORRECT

Predicted: 115-111 | Actual: 121-103 | Margin Error: 14 pts

Confidence: LOW

What Happened: Memphis Grizzlies defeated LA Clippers by 18 points. Top performer: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Memphis Grizzlies): 30 PTS, 6 REB, 0 AST. Memphis Grizzlies shot significantly better (52% vs 46%).

Top Performers:

• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Memphis Grizzlies): 30 PTS, 6 REB, 0 AST
• Jock Landale (Memphis Grizzlies): 29 PTS, 3 REB, 0 AST
• Cam Spencer (Memphis Grizzlies): 29 PTS, 6 REB, 1 AST
• Vince Williams Jr. (Memphis Grizzlies): 25 PTS, 3 REB, 0 AST

Lesson: Winner correct but margin off by 14 points. Consider total points methodology.

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Cumulative Learnings

Total Predictions Analyzed: 5

Overall Accuracy: 24.0%

• High Confidence: 0.0%
• Medium Confidence: 0.0%

Most Common Mistakes

1. Injury impact was misjudged (1 times) 1. Home court advantage overweighted (1 times) 1. Historical H2H may not reflect current matchup (1 times) 1. Recent form was not predictive (1 times) 1. Defensive/offensive projection was off (1 times)

Recent Lessons (Not Yet Applied)

• [2025-12-15] Toronto Raptors @ Miami Heat: Reassess injury impact assumptions
for Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat matchups.
• [2025-12-15] Memphis Grizzlies @ LA Clippers: Winner correct but margin off by

_Report generated: 12/16/2025, 1:50:58 PM_