Prediction Analysis Report - 2025-12-17

Summary

Metric	Value
Games Analyzed	2
Correct Predictions	0/2 (0.0%)
Over/Under Correct	2/2 (100.0%)
Avg Margin Error	19.0 pts	Game Analysis Cleveland Cavaliers @ Chicago Bulls - ❌ WRONG Predicted: 119-113	Actual: 111-127	Margin Error: 22 pts Over/Under: UNDER 241.5 ✅

Actual Total: 238

Confidence: MEDIUM

What Happened: Chicago Bulls defeated Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points. Top performer: Tre Jones (Chicago Bulls): 20 PTS, 11 REB, 1 AST. Chicago Bulls shot significantly better (56% vs 48%).

Top Performers:

Tre Jones (Chicago Bulls): 20 PTS, 11 REB, 1 AST
Matas Buzelis (Chicago Bulls): 15 PTS, 1 REB, 1 AST
Nikola Vucevic (Chicago Bulls): 15 PTS, 4 REB, 1 AST
Josh Giddey (Chicago Bulls): 15 PTS, 11 REB, 3 AST

Factors That Were Wrong:

Home court advantage overweighted
Historical H2H may not reflect current matchup
Recent form was not predictive

Lesson: Consider reducing home court weight when away team has clear advantages.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Minnesota Timberwolves - ❌ WRONG

Predicted: 108-118 | Actual: 116-110 | Margin Error: 16 pts

Over/Under: UNDER 230.5 ✅ | Actual Total: 226

Confidence: MEDIUM

What Happened: Memphis Grizzlies defeated Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points. Top performer: Vince Williams Jr. (Memphis Grizzlies): 21 PTS, 4 REB, 2 AST.

Top Performers:

Vince Williams Jr. (Memphis Grizzlies): 21 PTS, 4 REB, 2 AST
Jock Landale (Memphis Grizzlies): 19 PTS, 3 REB, 0 AST
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Memphis Grizzlies): 13 PTS, 3 REB, 3 AST
Olivier-Maxence Prosper (Memphis Grizzlies): 12 PTS, 1 REB, 2 AST

Factors That Were Wrong:

Home court advantage overweighted
Historical H2H may not reflect current matchup
Recent form was not predictive
Vegas line was more accurate than prediction
Prediction deviated 17.5 pts from Vegas (>3 pt rule violated)

Lesson: Consider reducing home court weight when away team has clear advantages.

Cumulative Learnings

Total Predictions Analyzed: 2

Overall Accuracy: 0.0%

High Confidence: 0.0%
Medium Confidence: 0.0%

Over/Under Accuracy: 100.0% (2/2)

Most Common Mistakes

1. Home court advantage overweighted (2 times) 1. Historical H2H may not reflect current matchup (2 times) 1. Recent form was not predictive (2 times) 1. Vegas line was more accurate than prediction (1 times) 1. Prediction deviated 17.5 pts from Vegas (>3 pt rule violated) (1 times)

Recent Lessons (Not Yet Applied)

[2025-12-17] Cleveland Cavaliers @ Chicago Bulls: Consider reducing home court weight when away team has clear advantages.
[2025-12-17] Memphis Grizzlies @ Minnesota Timberwolves: Consider reducing home court weight when away team has clear advantages.

Report generated: 12/24/2025, 5:08:20 PM