NBA Game Predictions - December 25, 2025 (Christmas Day)
Summary Table
| Home Team | Away Team | Book Spread | Confidence | Key Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knicks (117) | Cavaliers (110) | NYK -5.6 | MEDIUM | Mobley OUT, Knicks home, better record | |
| Thunder (114) | Spurs (112) | OKC -9.5 | MEDIUM | Williams + Holmgren OUT, Spurs beat OKC twice this month | |
| Warriors (119) | Mavericks (108) | GSW -8.3 | MEDIUM | Kyrie OUT (surgery), Mavs decimated by injuries | Detailed AnalysisGame 1: Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York KnicksThursday, December 25, 2025 - 12:00 PM ET |
Predicted Final Score: New York Knicks 117 - Cleveland Cavaliers 110
Data Summary:
- Home (Knicks): 20-9 (120.1 PPG, 112.9 OPPG) | 2nd in Eastern Conference
- Away (Cavaliers): 17-14 (described as "disappointing" season) | Coming off back-to-back wins (141-118 vs NOP, 139-132 vs CHA)
- Evan Mobley (calf) - All-Star caliber, ~16 PPG
- Max Strus (foot) - ~10 PPG
- Larry Nance Jr. (calf) - ~6 PPG
- Lonzo Ball, Luke Travers, Chris Livingston (OUT)
- Estimated missing PPG: ~32+
- Miles McBride (ankle) - ~8 PPG - cleared for contact but no practice yet
- Landry Shamet (shoulder) - ~5 PPG
- Estimated missing PPG: ~13
- Rest: Cavaliers played Dec 23 (2 days rest), Knicks similar
- B2B: Neither team on back-to-back
- Home Court: +2.5 pts to Knicks
- First Christmas game for Cavaliers since 2018
- Vegas: Knicks -5.6
- Adjustment calculation: - Base: Knicks home court +2.5 - Better record: Knicks 20-9 vs Cavs 17-14 - Injury differential: +5-6 pts Knicks (Mobley is huge loss) - Predicted margin: Knicks by 7 pts - Deviation from Vegas: +1.4 pts (within acceptable range)
- Home (Thunder): 26-4 (121.9 PPG, 107 OPPG) | Best record in NBA, +14.9 differential
- Away (Spurs): 22-7 | League's most improved team, Wembanyama leading the charge
- Jalen Williams (heel) - RULED OUT - ~20 PPG, All-Star caliber
- Chet Holmgren (facial injury) - Took shot to face in Dec 23 loss, did not return - ~16 PPG
- Ousmane Dieng (calf) - Minor rotation player
- Estimated missing PPG: ~36+
- CLEAN INJURY REPORT - All key players healthy
- Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes - ALL AVAILABLE
- Estimated missing PPG: ~0
- Spurs have beaten the Thunder TWICE this month already
- Most recent: Dec 23 - Spurs won 130-110 (this was the game Holmgren got hurt)
- Rest: Thunder played Dec 23 (2 days rest), Spurs played Dec 23 (2 days rest)
- B2B: Neither team on back-to-back
- Revenge game for Thunder, but severely undermanned
- Vegas: Thunder -9.5
- This line appears to be STALE or not fully adjusted for Williams + Holmgren OUT
- Adjustment calculation: - Thunder home court: +2.5 - Thunder injury impact: -15 to -18 pts (Williams + Holmgren combined) - Spurs healthy and confident after 2 wins vs OKC - H2H dominance suggests Spurs matchup well - Predicted margin: Thunder by 2 pts (or Spurs outright upset) - Deviation from Vegas: ~7 pts - SIGNIFICANT
- Home (Warriors): 15-15 (middling) | At Chase Center
- Away (Mavericks): 12-19 | Coming off 131-130 win vs Denver on Dec 23
- Kyrie Irving (left knee SURGERY) - ~25 PPG - MAJOR LOSS
- Dereck Lively II (right foot SURGERY) - Starting center
- Dante Exum (right knee SURGERY)
- P.J. Washington (right midfoot) - Questionable
- Klay Thompson (left knee) - Probable vs his former team
- Estimated missing PPG: ~35+ confirmed out
- Seth Curry (glute) - ~8 PPG
- LJ Cryer (back) - G-League
- Al Horford (sciatica) - May play
- Estimated missing PPG: ~8-10
- Rest: Both teams played Dec 23 (2 days rest each)
- B2B: Neither team on back-to-back
- Home Court: +2.5 pts to Warriors
- Klay revenge game could be X-factor
- Vegas: Warriors -8.3
- Adjustment calculation: - Warriors home: +2.5 - Injury differential: +10-12 pts (Kyrie + Lively vs Curry) - Mavs record suggests they're struggling: 12-19 - Warriors .500 but at home - Predicted margin: Warriors by 11 pts - Deviation from Vegas: ~3 pts (at threshold but acceptable given injury data)
- CBS Sports - Cleveland Cavaliers Injuries
- ESPN - New York Knicks Injuries
- Clutch Points - Spurs Clean Injury Report
- CBS Sports - Oklahoma City Thunder Injuries
- Dallas Hoops Journal - Mavericks 10-Player Injury Report
- CBS Sports - Golden State Warriors Injuries
- NBA.com - 2025-26 Standings
- ESPN - NBA Standings
- NBA.com - 10 Numbers to Know for Christmas Day
Injury Impact:
Cleveland Cavaliers (OUT):
New York Knicks (OUT):
Injury differential: ~19 PPG advantage to Knicks
Situational Factors:
Spread Analysis:
Spread Pick: Knicks -5.6 | Over/Under Pick: UNDER 241
Reasoning for UNDER: Cleveland missing Mobley significantly impacts their half-court offense. While both teams can score, the Cavaliers will struggle to match their recent 140-point outputs without their second-best player.
Confidence Level: MEDIUM
Reasoning: Prediction aligns within 2 pts of Vegas spread. Knicks are the better team with home court advantage on Christmas at MSG. However, confidence is capped at MEDIUM due to Cleveland's high injury impact (>15 PPG out with Mobley, Strus, and Nance). The Cavaliers have been scoring at a high clip recently but face a steep challenge without their defensive anchor.
Game 2: San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Thursday, December 25, 2025 - 2:30 PM ET | Paycom Center
Predicted Final Score: Oklahoma City Thunder 114 - San Antonio Spurs 112
Data Summary:
CRITICAL INJURY SITUATION:
Oklahoma City Thunder (OUT):
San Antonio Spurs:
Injury differential: ~36 PPG advantage to Spurs
Recent H2H History:
Situational Factors:
Spread Analysis:
Spread Pick: Spurs +9.5 | Over/Under Pick: UNDER 233.1
Reasoning for UNDER: Without Williams AND Holmgren, the Thunder's offensive firepower is severely diminished. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will need to carry an enormous load. The Spurs' defense against a depleted Thunder should keep this lower-scoring.
Confidence Level: MEDIUM
Reasoning: While I am deviating significantly from Vegas (7+ points), the guidelines allow higher confidence when injury differential exceeds 20 PPG. The Thunder are missing ~36 PPG worth of production against a fully healthy Spurs team that has already beaten them twice this month. Vegas may not have fully adjusted for Williams being ruled OUT (heel) and Holmgren's facial injury from Tuesday's game. The Spurs +9.5 is my strongest conviction pick of the day. Confidence remains MEDIUM (not HIGH) because: 1. Deviation from Vegas >4 pts 2. SGA is capable of single-handedly keeping games close 3. Thunder are at home with best record in NBA
If Holmgren plays (probable but unlikely given facial injury): Reduce confidence, line makes more sense.
Game 3: Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors
Thursday, December 25, 2025 - 5:00 PM ET | Chase Center
Predicted Final Score: Golden State Warriors 119 - Dallas Mavericks 108
Data Summary:
SEVERE Injury Situation for Dallas:
Dallas Mavericks (OUT):
Dallas Mavericks (Questionable/Probable):
Golden State Warriors (OUT):
Golden State Warriors (Probable):
Injury differential: ~25+ PPG advantage to Warriors
Storyline: Klay Thompson returns to Chase Center. Emotional game but Thompson listed only as "probable" with knee soreness.
Situational Factors:
Spread Analysis:
Spread Pick: Warriors -8.3 | Over/Under Pick: UNDER 229.3
Reasoning for UNDER: Dallas without Kyrie Irving severely limits their half-court offense. Luka Doncic will need to do everything. Warriors' pace may push toward the over, but Dallas's depleted roster suggests lower-scoring output.
Confidence Level: MEDIUM
Reasoning: Prediction aligns reasonably with Vegas (within 3 pts). Warriors are at home and significantly healthier than Dallas. However, confidence is MEDIUM because: 1. Dallas is missing >15 PPG (Kyrie alone is ~25) 2. High injury game = capped confidence per guidelines 3. Luka Doncic is capable of special performances 4. Klay Thompson's return to Golden State adds emotional unpredictability
Predictions Summary
| Game | Spread Pick | Total Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE @ NYK | Knicks -5.6 | UNDER 241 | MEDIUM |
| SAS @ OKC | Spurs +9.5 | UNDER 233.1 | MEDIUM |
| DAL @ GSW | Warriors -8.3 | UNDER 229.3 | MEDIUM |
Key Themes - Christmas Day 2025
1. Injury-impacted slate: All three games feature significant injury differentials. No HIGH confidence picks warranted.
2. Thunder injury situation is critical: Jalen Williams (OUT) and Chet Holmgren (facial injury likely OUT) represent ~36 PPG missing. Spurs +9.5 is the best value play.
3. Dallas decimated: Without Kyrie Irving (surgery), Dereck Lively II (surgery), and potentially P.J. Washington, the Mavericks are severely undermanned against a healthier Warriors squad.
4. All games lean UNDER: Three high-profile injured players (Mobley, Williams/Holmgren, Irving) significantly reduce offensive output projections across the slate.
Sources
Injury Reports:
Standings & Context:
Predictions generated December 25, 2025. Verify injury status updates closer to tip-off as situations may change.