NBA Over/Under Predictions - January 30, 2026

Generated: 2026-01-30

Analysis: No back-to-back situation. Neither team has extreme pace tendencies. Reaves being out removes some scoring but not enough for a confident play. Mixed signals with no clear edge.

Pick: SKIP

Game 2: Sacramento Kings @ Boston Celtics

Vegas Total: 220.6

Analysis: Kings on second night of back-to-back after road game in Philadelphia. Tatum being out is massive - he's Boston's primary scorer (~28 PPG). Pace factor partially offsets B2B fatigue but injuries compound the scoring reduction.

Predicted Final Score: Boston Celtics 108 - Sacramento Kings 109

Over/Under Pick: UNDER 220.6

Analysis: High total at 234.1. Murray out but not a 20+ PPG scorer. No B2B situation for either team. Insufficient factors to take a position.

Pick: SKIP

Game 4: Portland Trail Blazers @ New York Knicks

Vegas Total: 225.6

Analysis: Knicks slow pace provides slight UNDER lean, but Portland isn't classified. Mixed pace matchup typically splits. Only one factor aligned - insufficient for a play.

Pick: SKIP

Game 5: Toronto Raptors @ Orlando Magic

Vegas Total: 220.1

Analysis: Orlando's slow pace identity provides slight UNDER lean but only one factor present. Total already relatively low at 220.1. No confident edge.

Pick: SKIP

Game 6: Cleveland Cavaliers @ Phoenix Suns

Vegas Total: 221.5

Analysis: Cleveland's slow-pace defensive identity meets a Phoenix team without their primary scorer Booker (~27 PPG). Two factors pointing UNDER with no conflicting signals. Cavs control tempo and Suns lack firepower.

Predicted Final Score: Phoenix Suns 105 - Cleveland Cavaliers 113

Over/Under Pick: UNDER 221.5

Analysis: Denver missing both Jokic (~26 PPG) and Aaron Gordon (~14 PPG) is devastating. Combined 40 PPG missing. Total already lowered to 209.3 but injuries of this magnitude warrant UNDER. Pace factor nullified by lack of playmaking without Jokic.

Predicted Final Score: Denver Nuggets 100 - Los Angeles Clippers 105.5

Over/Under Pick: UNDER 209.3 | Confidence: MEDIUM

_Factors aligned: 2 (major injuries x2). Vegas deviation: 3.8 pts. Note: Injuries may be partially priced in given low line._

Game 8: Brooklyn Nets @ Utah Jazz

Vegas Total: 227.9

Analysis: Nets on second night of back-to-back after playing in Denver (altitude) and now traveling to Utah (more altitude). Fatigue and travel compound the UNDER case. Clear B2B trigger applies.

Predicted Final Score: Utah Jazz 113 - Brooklyn Nets 111

Over/Under Pick: UNDER 227.9

Analysis: Pistons on second night of back-to-back after road game in Phoenix. Cross-country travel to Bay Area adds fatigue. Clear B2B trigger for UNDER.

Predicted Final Score: Golden State Warriors 112 - Detroit Pistons 108.5

Over/Under Pick: UNDER 224.4 | Confidence: MEDIUM

_Factors aligned: 1 strong (B2B away). Vegas deviation: 3.9 pts_

Key Factors Today

Back-to-Back Situations (Primary Driver)

• Sacramento Kings - 2nd game in 2 days (@ PHI yesterday)
• Brooklyn Nets - 2nd game in 2 days (@ DEN yesterday, altitude factor)
• Detroit Pistons - 2nd game in 2 days (@ PHX yesterday)

Major Injuries Affecting Totals

• Jayson Tatum (BOS) - OUT - Achilles (~28 PPG)
• Devin Booker (PHX) - OUT - Ankle (~27 PPG)
• Nikola Jokic (DEN) - OUT - Knee (~26 PPG)
• Aaron Gordon (DEN) - OUT - Hamstring (~14 PPG)

Pace Classifications Applied

• Slow Pace Teams Playing: Cleveland, Orlando, New York
• Fast Pace Teams Playing: Sacramento, Denver

---

Betting Notes

• All picks within ±4 pts of Vegas (hard limit respected)
• No HIGH confidence picks today (requires B2B + pace alignment + no conflicts)
• Heavy UNDER day due to 3 teams on back-to-backs
• SKIP is the right call when <2 factors align

_Run `/analyze-ou-errors` after games complete to update learnings._