NBA Over/Under Analysis - 2026-01-31
Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Total Picks | 5 |
| Correct | 2 |
| Accuracy | 40% |
| Skipped | 1 | Results | Game | Pick | Vegas | Actual | Result | Margin |
| ------------------------------------------ | --------- | ----- | ------ | -------- | ------ |
| Atlanta Hawks @ Indiana Pacers | OVER 236 | 232.7 | 253 | ✅ OVER | +20.3 |
| New Orleans Pelicans @ Philadelphia 76ers | UNDER 228 | 231.8 | 238 | ❌ OVER | +6.2 |
| Chicago Bulls @ Miami Heat | UNDER 229 | 233.4 | 243 | ❌ OVER | +9.6 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves @ Memphis Grizzlies | UNDER 226 | 229.6 | 245 | ❌ OVER | +15.4 |
| Dallas Mavericks @ Houston Rockets | UNDER 219 | 222.8 | 218 | ✅ UNDER | -4.8 |
Correct Picks (2)
Atlanta Hawks @ Indiana Pacers
- Pick: OVER 236
- Vegas: 232.7 | Actual: 253
- Confidence: MEDIUM
- Factors: None specified
- Margin: +20.3 pts
Dallas Mavericks @ Houston Rockets
- Pick: UNDER 219
- Vegas: 222.8 | Actual: 218
- Confidence: MEDIUM
- Factors: None specified
- Margin: -4.8 pts
Wrong Picks (3)
New Orleans Pelicans @ Philadelphia 76ers
- Pick: UNDER 228
- Vegas: 231.8 | Actual: 238
- Confidence: MEDIUM
- Factors: None specified
- Margin: +6.2 pts
- Why wrong: Game went OVER - scoring higher than expected
Chicago Bulls @ Miami Heat
- Pick: UNDER 229
- Vegas: 233.4 | Actual: 243
- Confidence: MEDIUM
- Factors: None specified
- Margin: +9.6 pts
- Why wrong: Game went OVER - scoring higher than expected
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Memphis Grizzlies
- Pick: UNDER 226
- Vegas: 229.6 | Actual: 245
- Confidence: MEDIUM
- Factors: None specified
- Margin: +15.4 pts
- Why wrong: Game went OVER - scoring higher than expected
Cumulative Stats
- Overall Accuracy: 40% (4/10)
- Last 5 Days: 0%, 40%, 40%
Lessons Learned
- 📉 UNDER picks outperforming OVER by 40%
- 2026-01-30: Wrong picks missed by avg 23.3 pts - totals were volatile
- 📈 OVER picks outperforming UNDER by 67%
- 🔴 MEDIUM confidence below 50% - review criteria
- 2026-01-31: Wrong picks missed by avg 10.4 pts - totals were volatile