NBA Over/Under Predictions - January 31, 2026

Generated: 2026-01-31

System Version: 1.0 Summary	Game	Vegas Total	Pick	Predicted	Confidence
SAS @ CHA	221.1	SKIP	-	-
ATL @ IND	232.7	OVER	236	MEDIUM
NOP @ PHI	231.8	UNDER	228	MEDIUM
CHI @ MIA	233.4	UNDER	229	MEDIUM
MIN @ MEM	229.6	UNDER	226	MEDIUM
DAL @ HOU	222.8	UNDER	219	MEDIUM	Picks Today: 1 OVER	4 UNDER	1 SKIP Game Analysis Game 1: San Antonio Spurs @ Charlotte Hornets Vegas Total: 221.1	Factor	Status	Impact
--------	-----------------------	-------
B2B	Neither team	Neutral
Pace	Neither classified	Neutral
Injuries	Jeremy Sochan (SAS) OUT	-1 pt

Analysis: Neither team on back-to-back. Neither team has an extreme pace classification. Sochan out reduces some scoring but not a primary offensive weapon. Hornets missing Plumlee (rim protector OUT) could mean easier scoring inside. Mixed signals with no clear edge.

Pick: SKIP

Game 2: Atlanta Hawks @ Indiana Pacers

Vegas Total: 232.7

Factor	Status	Impact
B2B	Neither team	Neutral
Pace	Fast vs Fast (ATL + IND)	+3 pts
Injuries	Haliburton OUT (IND), Risacher/Okongwu OUT (ATL)	-3 pts

Analysis: Two of the fastest-paced teams in the league meet. Both ATL and IND are classified as Fast Pace teams. The pace matchup is the strongest OVER signal per guidelines (+2 to +4 pts expected). However, significant injuries on both sides partially offset: Haliburton (~20 PPG) out for IND, multiple rotation players out for ATL. Net effect: pace advantage outweighs injury reduction. Vegas has this at a high 232.7 already, but pace vs pace historically goes OVER.

Predicted Final Score: Indiana Pacers 118 - Atlanta Hawks 118

Over/Under Pick: OVER 232.7 | Confidence: MEDIUM

_Factors aligned: 2 (fast vs fast pace, injuries net neutral). Vegas deviation: 3.3 pts_

Game 3: New Orleans Pelicans @ Philadelphia 76ers

Vegas Total: 231.8

Factor	Status	Impact
B2B	NOP AWAY B2B (played @ MEM 1/30)	-4 pts
Pace	Neither classified	Neutral
Injuries	Dejounte Murray OUT (NOP)	-2 pts

Analysis: Pelicans on second night of back-to-back after playing in Memphis last night. Dejounte Murray remains out. Away B2B is the strongest UNDER signal per guidelines (-4 to -5 pts expected). Combined with Murray's absence, expect reduced offensive efficiency from NOP. 76ers at home should control tempo.

Predicted Final Score: Philadelphia 76ers 116 - New Orleans Pelicans 112

Over/Under Pick: UNDER 231.8

Confidence: MEDIUM

_Factors aligned: 2 (away B2B, major injury). Vegas deviation: 3.8 pts_

Game 4: Chicago Bulls @ Miami Heat

Vegas Total: 233.4

Factor

Status

Impact

B2B

Neither team

Neutral

Pace

MIA = Slow

-2 pts

Injuries

Herro + Rozier OUT (MIA ~41 PPG), Giddey + Collins OUT (CHI ~18 PPG)

-5 pts

Analysis: Miami classified as slow-pace team creates baseline UNDER lean. The massive injury impact is key: Miami missing Tyler Herro (~23 PPG) AND Terry Rozier (~18 PPG) guts their backcourt scoring. Chicago without Giddey hurts playmaking. Combined ~59 PPG missing between both teams. Vegas line at 233.4 seems too high given firepower losses.

Predicted Final Score: Miami Heat 114 - Chicago Bulls 116

Over/Under Pick: UNDER 233.4 | Confidence: MEDIUM

_Factors aligned: 2 (slow pace home team, major injuries both sides). Vegas deviation: 3.4 pts_

Game 5: Minnesota Timberwolves @ Memphis Grizzlies

Vegas Total: 229.6

Factor	Status	Impact
B2B	MEM HOME B2B (played vs NOP 1/30)	-3 pts
Pace	Neither classified	Neutral
Injuries	Ja Morant + Zach Edey OUT (MEM ~40 PPG)	-6 pts

Analysis: This is the clearest UNDER of the day. Memphis on back-to-back with their two best players OUT: Ja Morant (~25 PPG) and rookie center Zach Edey (~15 PPG). That's 40+ PPG missing. Minnesota is the better team (9.8 point favorite) and should control pace against a depleted, fatigued Memphis squad. Home B2B + catastrophic injuries = strong UNDER signal.

Predicted Final Score: Minnesota Timberwolves 114 - Memphis Grizzlies 112

Over/Under Pick: UNDER 229.6 | Confidence: MEDIUM

_Factors aligned: 3 (home B2B, major injuries, pace control by favorite). Vegas deviation: 3.6 pts_

Game 6: Dallas Mavericks @ Houston Rockets

Vegas Total: 222.8

Factor	Status	Impact
B2B	Neither team	Neutral
Pace	HOU = Slow	-2 pts
Injuries	Kyrie Irving OUT (DAL ~25 PPG), Fred VanVleet OUT season (HOU)	-4 pts

Analysis: Houston classified as slow-pace team. Kyrie Irving being out guts Dallas's primary ball-handler and scorer. Dallas already big underdogs (+10.6). Houston should control tempo at home with their defensive identity. Both teams missing key guards. Vegas at 222.8 is reasonable but injuries + slow pace point UNDER.

Predicted Final Score: Houston Rockets 112 - Dallas Mavericks 107

Over/Under Pick: UNDER 222.8 | Confidence: MEDIUM

_Factors aligned: 2 (slow pace, major injury). Vegas deviation: 3.8 pts_

Key Factors Today

Back-to-Back Situations (Primary Driver)

New Orleans Pelicans - 2nd game in 2 days (@ MEM yesterday)
Memphis Grizzlies - 2nd game in 2 days (vs NOP yesterday)

Major Injuries Affecting Totals

Tyrese Haliburton (IND) - OUT - Wrist (~20 PPG)
Ja Morant (MEM) - OUT (~25 PPG)
Zach Edey (MEM) - OUT (~15 PPG)
Kyrie Irving (DAL) - OUT (~25 PPG)
Tyler Herro (MIA) - OUT (~23 PPG)
Terry Rozier (MIA) - OUT (~18 PPG)
Josh Giddey (CHI) - OUT (~15 PPG)
Dejounte Murray (NOP) - OUT (~15 PPG)

Pace Classifications Applied

Slow Pace Teams Playing: Miami, Houston
Fast Pace Teams Playing: Atlanta, Indiana

Betting Notes

All picks within ±4 pts of Vegas (hard limit respected)
No HIGH confidence picks today (historical HIGH accuracy was 0%)
Heavy UNDER day due to injury carnage across the league
ATL @ IND is lone OVER - fast pace vs fast pace trigger
SKIP is the right call for SAS @ CHA with no clear edge

_Run `/analyze-ou-errors` after games complete to update learnings._