NBA Over/Under Analysis - 2026-02-01

Summary

Metric	Value
Total Picks	6
Correct	5
Accuracy	83%
Skipped	4	Results	Game	Pick	Vegas	Actual	Result	Margin
--------------------------------------	---------	-----	------	--------	------
Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics	UNDER 217	217.1	186	✅ UNDER	-31.1
Chicago Bulls @ Miami Heat	UNDER 232	235.7	225	✅ UNDER	-10.7
Los Angeles Lakers @ New York Knicks	UNDER 227	229.1	212	✅ UNDER	-17.1
Orlando Magic @ San Antonio Spurs	UNDER 222	224.7	215	✅ UNDER	-9.7
LA Clippers @ Phoenix Suns	OVER 215	212.7	210	❌ UNDER	-2.7
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Denver Nuggets	OVER 226	224.1	232	✅ OVER	+7.9

Correct Picks (5)

Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics

Pick: UNDER 217
Vegas: 217.1 | Actual: 186
Confidence: MEDIUM
Factors: None specified
Margin: -31.1 pts

Chicago Bulls @ Miami Heat

Pick: UNDER 232
Vegas: 235.7 | Actual: 225
Confidence: HIGH
Factors: None specified
Margin: -10.7 pts

Los Angeles Lakers @ New York Knicks

Pick: UNDER 227
Vegas: 229.1 | Actual: 212
Confidence: LOW
Factors: None specified
Margin: -17.1 pts

Orlando Magic @ San Antonio Spurs

Pick: UNDER 222
Vegas: 224.7 | Actual: 215
Confidence: MEDIUM
Factors: None specified
Margin: -9.7 pts

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Denver Nuggets

Pick: OVER 226
Vegas: 224.1 | Actual: 232
Confidence: MEDIUM
Factors: None specified
Margin: +7.9 pts

Wrong Picks (1)

LA Clippers @ Phoenix Suns

Pick: OVER 215
Vegas: 212.7 | Actual: 210
Confidence: LOW
Factors: None specified
Margin: -2.7 pts
Why wrong: Game went UNDER - scoring lower than expected

Cumulative Stats

Overall Accuracy: 56% (9/16)
Last 5 Days: 0%, 40%, 40%, 83%

Lessons Learned

2026-01-30: Wrong picks missed by avg 23.3 pts - totals were volatile
📈 OVER picks outperforming UNDER by 67%
🔴 MEDIUM confidence below 50% - review criteria
2026-01-31: Wrong picks missed by avg 10.4 pts - totals were volatile
📊 Staying closer to Vegas (0-2 pts) has 46% better accuracy