NBA Over/Under Predictions - February 1, 2026
System Context
Current Accuracy: 40% (4/10) Key Learning: UNDER bias has hurt badly (33% on UNDERs vs 100% on OVERs). Being more selective today.
Game Analysis
1. Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: 217.1
| Factor | Analysis | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| B2B | Neither team on B2B | Neutral |
| Pace | MIL average / BOS slow | Slight UNDER |
| Injuries | Tatum OUT (Achilles) - massive | UNDER -4 pts |
| Team Trends | BOS 0% over rate (1 game) | UNDER |
Analysis: Tatum being out is HUGE - he's their leading scorer. However, Vegas has already adjusted this line down to 217.1 which is very low. The Tatum injury is likely priced in.
Pick: UNDER 217 | Confidence: MEDIUM Factors: Major injury (Tatum OUT), slow pace home team, low line already priced
2. Brooklyn Nets @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: 215.3
| Factor | Analysis | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| B2B | Neither team on B2B | Neutral |
| Pace | BKN average / DET average | Neutral |
| Injuries | Minor players out both sides | Neutral |
| Team Trends | BKN under trend / DET over trend | Mixed |
Analysis: Very low total already. No clear edge either direction. Mixed signals from team trends.
Pick: SKIP | Confidence: N/A Factors: Conflicting team trends, no B2B, no pace edge, already low total
3. Chicago Bulls @ Miami Heat
Vegas Total: 235.7
| Factor | Analysis | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| B2B | BOTH teams B2B (played each other yesterday!) | Strong UNDER |
| Pace | CHI average / MIA slow | Slight UNDER |
| Injuries | Vucevic OUT (CHI), Herro OUT (MIA) - both significant | UNDER -4 pts |
| Team Trends | CHI 100% over / MIA 100% over | OVER |
Analysis: CRITICAL - Both teams on B2B after playing each other yesterday. This is the strongest UNDER signal. Multiple key scorers out (Vucevic, Herro). Despite both teams trending OVER, fatigue + injuries should dominate. The 235.7 line seems high for this situation.
Pick: UNDER 232 | Confidence: HIGH Factors: Both teams B2B (strongest signal), slow pace home team, major injuries both sides (-3.7 from Vegas)
4. Sacramento Kings @ Washington Wizards
Vegas Total: 229.1
| Factor | Analysis | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| B2B | Neither team on B2B | Neutral |
| Pace | SAC fast (100+ poss) / WAS average | Slight OVER |
| Injuries | Minor players out | Neutral |
| Team Trends | SAC 0% over rate | UNDER |
Analysis: Sacramento is a fast-paced team but has gone UNDER in our tracked games. Washington is neutral. No strong signal either way.
Pick: SKIP | Confidence: N/A Factors: Mixed signals, no B2B, no major injuries
5. Utah Jazz @ Toronto Raptors
Vegas Total: 233.5
| Factor | Analysis | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| B2B | Neither team on B2B | Neutral |
| Pace | UTA average / TOR average | Neutral |
| Injuries | Poeltl OUT (TOR) - defensive anchor | OVER +1-2 pts |
| Team Trends | UTA 0% over rate (strong) | UNDER |
Analysis: Utah has gone UNDER in tracked games. Poeltl OUT could slightly increase scoring. Mixed signals - no strong edge.
Pick: SKIP | Confidence: N/A Factors: Conflicting signals between injury (OVER) and Utah UNDER trend
6. Los Angeles Lakers @ New York Knicks
Vegas Total: 229.1
| Factor | Analysis | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| B2B | Neither team on B2B | Neutral |
| Pace | LAL average / NYK slow | Slight UNDER |
| Injuries | Reaves OUT (LAL) - key scorer ~18 PPG | UNDER -2 pts |
| Team Trends | NYK neutral | Neutral |
Analysis: Knicks are a slow-pace team. Reaves being out removes a key scorer from LA. This points UNDER but not strongly enough for high confidence.
Pick: UNDER 227 | Confidence: LOW Factors: Slow pace home team, Reaves OUT (-2.1 from Vegas but within 4pt limit)
7. Orlando Magic @ San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Total: 224.7
| Factor | Analysis | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| B2B | SAS on B2B (played @ CHA yesterday) | Moderate UNDER |
| Pace | ORL slow (<97 poss) / SAS average | UNDER |
| Injuries | Franz Wagner OUT (ORL), Sochan OUT (SAS) | UNDER -2 pts |
| Team Trends | ORL neutral | Neutral |
Analysis: Spurs on B2B after road game at Charlotte. Orlando is one of the slowest teams in the league. Both teams missing scorers. This has multiple UNDER signals aligned.
Pick: UNDER 222 | Confidence: MEDIUM Factors: Home team B2B, slow pace away team (ORL), injuries both sides (-2.7 from Vegas)
8. LA Clippers @ Phoenix Suns
Vegas Total: 212.7
| Factor | Analysis | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| B2B | Neither team on B2B | Neutral |
| Pace | LAC average / PHX average | Neutral |
| Injuries | Booker OUT (PHX) - star scorer 25+ PPG | UNDER -4 pts |
| Team Trends | LAC 100% over / PHX 100% over | OVER |
Analysis: Booker being OUT is massive, but 212.7 is already a very low total - likely priced in. Both teams have trended OVER in our sample. The low line suggests value might actually be on the OVER given team trends.
Pick: OVER 215 | Confidence: LOW Factors: Both teams OVER trend, low line may be overcorrected (+2.3 from Vegas)
9. Cleveland Cavaliers @ Portland Trail Blazers
Vegas Total: 230.3
| Factor | Analysis | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| B2B | Neither team on B2B | Neutral |
| Pace | CLE slow (<97 poss) / POR average | Slight UNDER |
| Injuries | Jrue Holiday OUT, Scoot Henderson OUT (POR) | UNDER -3 pts |
| Team Trends | CLE 100% over rate | OVER |
Analysis: Cleveland is a slow-pace, defensive-minded team but has gone OVER in our sample. Portland missing key guards. Mixed signals.
Pick: SKIP | Confidence: N/A Factors: Conflicting signals - CLE over trend vs slow pace and POR injuries
10. Oklahoma City Thunder @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 224.1
| Factor | Analysis | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| B2B | Neither team on B2B | Neutral |
| Pace | OKC fast (100+ poss) / DEN fast (100+ poss) | OVER +3-4 pts |
| Injuries | Caruso OUT, Jalen Williams OUT (OKC) - significant | UNDER -3 pts |
| Team Trends | DEN 100% over rate | OVER |
Analysis: This is a pace-up matchup (Fast vs Fast) which typically goes OVER. However, OKC is missing Jalen Williams which is a significant scoring loss. The signals conflict but pace matchups are generally reliable.
Pick: OVER 226 | Confidence: MEDIUM Factors: Fast vs Fast pace matchup (+2 from Vegas), Denver OVER trend, offset by OKC injuries
Summary
| Game | Pick | Vegas | Deviation | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL @ BOS | UNDER 217 | 217.1 | -0.1 | MEDIUM |
| ORL @ SAS | UNDER 222 | 224.7 | -2.7 | MEDIUM |
| OKC @ DEN | OVER 226 | 224.1 | +1.9 | MEDIUM |
| LAL @ NYK | UNDER 227 | 229.1 | -2.1 | LOW |
| LAC @ PHX | OVER 215 | 212.7 | +2.3 | LOW |
| BKN @ DET | SKIP | 215.3 | - | - |
| CHI @ MIA | UNDER 232 | 235.7 | -3.7 | HIGH |
| SAC @ WAS | SKIP | 229.1 | - | - |
| UTA @ TOR | SKIP | 233.5 | - | - |
| CLE @ POR | SKIP | 230.3 | - | - |
Total Picks: 6 (4 SKIP) HIGH Confidence: 1 (CHI @ MIA - both teams B2B) MEDIUM Confidence: 3 LOW Confidence: 2
Best Bets
1. CHI @ MIA UNDER 232 (HIGH) - Both teams B2B after playing each other yesterday. Multiple injuries. This is as strong as B2B signals get.
2. ORL @ SAS UNDER 222 (MEDIUM) - Spurs B2B + Orlando's slow pace + injuries on both sides.
3. OKC @ DEN OVER 226 (MEDIUM) - Fast vs Fast pace matchup despite OKC injuries.