NBA Over/Under Predictions - February 2, 2026

Today's Picks Summary

#### Analysis:

• No B2B fatigue factor present
• Both teams are mid-pace, neither slow nor fast
• New Orleans has gone over in their only tracked game but sample size is tiny
• Charlotte has no O/U data in tracking
• Vegas has this as the highest total of the day at 231.3
• No strong signals in either direction

Pick: SKIP Reason: No clear edge. No B2B, neutral pace matchup, insufficient data on team trends.

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Game 2: Houston Rockets @ Indiana Pacers

Vegas Total: 219.3

Time: 7:10 PM ET #### Factor Analysis:	Factor	Finding	Impact
B2B Status	Neither team on B2B	Neutral
Pace	HOU slow (<97 poss) / IND fast (100+ poss)	Mixed (neutral)
Team O/U Trend	HOU: 0% over (under trend), IND: 100% over (1 game)	Conflicting
Historical Accuracy	HOU: 100% correct, IND: 100% correct	Both reliable

#### Analysis:

• Houston is a slow-pace team (listed in guidelines as <97 poss/game)
• Indiana is a fast-pace team (listed in guidelines as 100+ poss/game)
• When fast meets slow, pace typically splits → neutral impact
• Houston has strong under trend (0% over rate)
• Indiana has strong over trend (100% over rate)
• However, Houston's defensive identity should slow down Indiana's pace
• Vegas has this as lowest total of the day at 219.3 - already pricing in some
slowdown
• Houston's under trend is more sustainable as a slow-pace team

Predicted Total: 218.0 (1.3 pts under Vegas)

Pick: UNDER 219.3 Confidence: MEDIUM Factors Used: Pace mismatch (slow team on road), Houston under trend (100% accurate), low total already suggests caution

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Game 3: Minnesota Timberwolves @ Memphis Grizzlies

Vegas Total: 229.5

Time: 9:40 PM ET #### Factor Analysis:	Factor	Finding	Impact
B2B Status	Neither team on B2B	Neutral
Pace	MIN average / MEM average-to-fast	Slight OVER
Team O/U Trend	MIN: 100% over (1 game), MEM: 100% over (1 game)	OVER
Historical Accuracy	MIN: 0% correct, MEM: 0% correct	Both wrong previously

#### Analysis:

• No B2B for either team
• Both teams trend toward overs (100% rate each, though small samples)
• However, both teams had 0% prediction accuracy in our tracking - we've been
wrong on both
• Minnesota is a defensive-minded team despite recent over
• Memphis has young, athletic players who push pace
• No strong B2B signal to create edge
• Conflicting data: team trends say over, but our predictions on these teams
have been wrong

Pick: SKIP Reason: No B2B fatigue signal. Both teams' overs tracked at 100% but our predictions on them have been 0% accurate. Conflicting data, no clear edge.

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Game 4: Philadelphia 76ers @ Los Angeles Clippers

Vegas Total: 220.6

Time: 10:40 PM ET #### Factor Analysis:	Factor	Finding	Impact
B2B Status	LAC on B2B (played PHX yesterday)	UNDER (-3 to -4 pts)
Pace	PHI neutral / LAC neutral	Neutral
Team O/U Trend	PHI: 100% over (1 game), LAC: 50% (neutral)	Slight OVER
Historical Accuracy	PHI: 0% correct, LAC: 0% correct	Both wrong previously

#### Analysis:

• Key Factor: LA Clippers played in Phoenix last night and won 117-93.
They're on a home B2B.
• Per guidelines, home team B2B = -3 to -4 pts expected impact
• This is the strongest signal available today
• Clippers may rest players or see reduced minutes in second game
• The B2B factor strongly suggests UNDER
• Vegas total at 220.6 already somewhat low, but B2B fatigue not fully priced
• Philadelphia also has injury concerns (Embiid status always uncertain)

Predicted Total: 218.0 (2.6 pts under Vegas)

Pick: UNDER 220.6 Confidence: MEDIUM Factors Used: Home team B2B (LAC played yesterday), travel fatigue from Phoenix, low-scoring potential with fatigued Clippers

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Summary

Total Picks: 2 (2 UNDER, 0 OVER, 2 SKIP)

Best Bet of the Day

PHI @ LAC UNDER 220.6 - Clear B2B situation for Clippers provides edge

Learnings Applied

• Per guidelines: staying closer to Vegas (0-2 pts deviation) has 46% better
accuracy
• Both picks are within 3 pts of Vegas (1.3 and 2.6)
• Prioritizing B2B situations as the most reliable signal
• SKIP is valid when no clear edge exists

Factors Used Today

_Generated: 2026-02-02_ _System Version: O/U Predictor v1.0_