NBA Over/Under Predictions - February 3, 2026
Today's Picks Summary
| Game | Vegas Total | Pick | Predicted Total | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS @ DAL | 223.2 | UNDER 223.2 | 219.0 | HIGH |
| PHI @ GSW | 221.4 | UNDER 221.4 | 218.0 | HIGH |
| PHX @ POR | 218.5 | UNDER 218.5 | 215.0 | HIGH |
| DEN @ DET | 228.9 | OVER 228.9 | 231.0 | MEDIUM |
| ATL @ MIA | 241.1 | UNDER 241.1 | 238.0 | MEDIUM |
| CHI @ MIL | 223.4 | UNDER 223.4 | 220.0 | MEDIUM |
| UTA @ IND | 236.6 | SKIP | - | - |
| NYK @ WAS | 227.6 | SKIP | - | - |
| LAL @ BKN | 222.4 | SKIP | - | - |
| ORL @ OKC | 219.6 | SKIP | - | - |
Best Bets of the Day
BOS @ DAL UNDER 223.2
Confidence: HIGH
Key Factors:
- Jayson Tatum OUT (Achilles repair) — 25+ PPG star scorer removed from BOS
- Kyrie Irving OUT (knee surgery) — 25+ PPG star scorer removed from DAL
- Combined 50+ PPG of star scoring OFF the floor
- P.J. Washington OUT (concussion), Anthony Davis OUT, Dereck Lively OUT — Dallas decimated
- Boston 100% UNDER trend (2 games, 100% prediction accuracy)
- Dallas 100% UNDER trend (1 game, 100% prediction accuracy)
- Two star scorers OUT (20+ PPG) = -6 to -8 pts combined per guidelines
- Philadelphia on B2B (played yesterday at LAC, now traveling to GSW)
- Away team B2B = -4 to -5 pts expected impact per guidelines
- Stephen Curry OUT (patellofemoral pain) — 25+ PPG star scorer removed from GSW
- Jimmy Butler OUT (ACL tear), Jonathan Kuminga OUT — GSW missing massive scoring
- B2B fatigue + star scorer OUT = double UNDER signal
- Within 4 pts of Vegas (3.4 pts under) — justified by HIGH confidence factors
- Devin Booker OUT (ankle sprain) — 25+ PPG star scorer removed from PHX
- Damian Lillard OUT (Achilles management) — 25+ PPG star scorer removed from POR
- Scoot Henderson DOUBTFUL, Deni Avdija DOUBTFUL — POR further depleted
- Combined 50+ PPG of star scoring OFF the floor
- Already the lowest total on the board at 218.5
- Both teams' best scorers sidelined = massive UNDER pressure
- No B2B fatigue factor for either team
- Denver is classified as a fast-pace team (100+ possessions/game)
- Detroit is neutral pace but has gone over in their only tracked game
- Denver has gone OVER in both tracked games -- 100% OVER rate with a meaningful 2-game sample
- Denver's fast pace should push this game higher
- Both teams trending OVER aligns with our learning that OVER picks outperform UNDER (67% vs 47%)
- Detroit is neutral pace, so this is a fast vs neutral matchup -- slight OVER lean
- Keeping deviation small at 2.1 pts from Vegas
- Indiana played Houston yesterday and is now hosting Utah -- home B2B situation
- Per guidelines, home team B2B = -3 to -4 pts, which would push UNDER
- However, Indiana has gone OVER in both tracked games (100% rate) and they are a fast-pace team
- The B2B factor says UNDER, but Indiana's pace and OVER trend say OVER
- Vegas already has this as the second-highest total of the day at 236.6 -- the line may already be pricing in Indiana's high-scoring tendency
- B2B fatigue vs fast-pace OVER identity creates a direct conflict
- Our system says to SKIP when conflicting strong signals exist
- No B2B for either team -- primary edge finder is absent
- New York is a slow-pace team which provides a slight UNDER lean
- NYK went under in their only tracked game (0% OVER rate)
- However, NYK only has 1 game tracked -- tiny sample
- Washington has no tracking data at all
- Without B2B and with limited data, the edge here is thin
- The slow pace of NYK is a real factor but not strong enough alone
- No B2B fatigue for either team
- Atlanta is a fast-pace team and Miami is a slow-pace team -- classic pace split
- Per guidelines, fast vs slow = neutral (pace typically splits)
- Atlanta has 100% OVER trend but only 1 game tracked
- Miami is neutral at 50%
- This is the highest total on the board at 241.1 -- Vegas is already pricing in a high-scoring affair
- No strong signals in either direction without B2B or pace alignment
- MIA: Tyler Herro OUT (rib injury) — key scorer ~22 PPG removed
- MIA: Terry Rozier OUT (not with team) — another 15+ PPG scorer gone
- MIA: Norman Powell Questionable (personal reasons)
- ATL: Kristaps Porzingis Questionable (Achilles tendinitis) — if he sits, massive impact
- No B2B for either team
- Both teams are neutral pace -- no pace signal
- Both teams have gone under in their only tracked game (0% OVER rate each)
- Both teams had correct predictions previously -- encouraging
- However, sample sizes are just 1 game each
- Without B2B as a primary driver and with neutral pace, the UNDER trend from both teams is the only signal
- Two factors aligned (both teams' UNDER trend) but no strong primary factor
- Per learnings, we should lean OVER when possible since OVER outperforms -- this conflicts with the team trends
- Conflicting guidance: system says lean OVER, but team data says UNDER
- No B2B for either team
- Both teams are neutral pace -- no pace signal
- Boston has a strong UNDER trend: 0% OVER rate across 2 games (more meaningful sample)
- Dallas also went under in their only tracked game
- Critically, Boston is our most reliable team to predict: 100% accuracy across 2 games, both UNDER
- Dallas also 100% prediction accuracy (1 game)
- Both teams trending UNDER with high prediction accuracy is a meaningful signal
- 3 factors aligned: BOS UNDER trend (strong, 2 games), DAL UNDER trend, prediction accuracy on both
- Staying within 2 pts of Vegas per learnings (1.7 pts under)
- BOS: Jayson Tatum OUT (Right Achilles repair) — 25+ PPG star scorer, massive scoring loss
- DAL: Kyrie Irving OUT (Left Knee surgery) — 25+ PPG star scorer, massive scoring loss
- DAL: P.J. Washington OUT (concussion protocol) — key contributor
- DAL: Anthony Davis OUT, Dereck Lively II OUT, Dante Exum OUT — Dallas is decimated
- DAL: D'Angelo Russell Questionable (illness) — may also miss
- No B2B for either team
- Both teams are neutral pace
- Chicago is neutral at 50% OVER rate -- no directional signal
- Milwaukee went under in their 1 tracked game
- Chicago's prediction accuracy is only 50% -- unreliable
- Milwaukee has 100% accuracy but only 1 game
- Without B2B and with neutral pace, only one marginal factor (MIL under trend) is present
- Not enough aligned factors to justify a pick
- MIL: Giannis Antetokounmpo OUT (Right Calf strain) — 30+ PPG superstar, massive scoring loss
- MIL: Gary Harris OUT, Kevin Porter Jr. OUT, Taurean Prince OUT — depleted roster
- CHI: Josh Giddey OUT (Left Hamstring strain) — key playmaker/scorer ~15 PPG
- CHI: Zach Collins OUT, Tre Jones OUT — rotation players gone
- No B2B for either team
- Classic pace mismatch: Orlando is the slowest team in the league, OKC is one of the fastest
- Per guidelines, fast vs slow = neutral (pace typically splits)
- Orlando trends UNDER (0% OVER), OKC trends OVER (100% OVER) -- direct conflict
- Both have been correctly predicted before, but they point in opposite directions
- This is a textbook SKIP: conflicting team trends with a neutral pace matchup
- Primary factor: Philadelphia is on an AWAY B2B -- played at LA Clippers yesterday, now traveling to Golden State
- Away team B2B is the strongest fatigue signal: -4 to -5 pts per guidelines
- PHI has 100% OVER rate BUT we have been 0% accurate predicting PHI games (0/2) -- their OVER trend has been unreliable for us
- GSW also has 100% OVER rate but again 0% accuracy on our GSW predictions (0/1)
- The team OVER trends have been wrong every time we've tracked them for both teams -- this actually reinforces the UNDER pick since our OVER-leaning predictions on these teams have failed
- B2B fatigue is the most reliable factor in our system
- Away B2B with cross-country travel (LAC to GSW is short, but still second game in two nights)
- Embiid's availability is always a concern on B2Bs -- if he sits, massive scoring reduction
- Even if Embiid plays, fatigue from yesterday's game should reduce Philadelphia's output
- 4 factors align for UNDER: B2B away, historical inaccuracy of OVER trend for both teams, potential Embiid rest, fatigue travel
- GSW: Stephen Curry OUT (Right Patellofemoral pain) — 25+ PPG star scorer removed
- GSW: Jimmy Butler OUT (Right ACL tear) — another major scorer gone
- GSW: Jonathan Kuminga OUT (bone bruise), Seth Curry OUT — roster gutted
- PHI: Report NOT YET SUBMITTED — Embiid status unknown (historically rests on B2Bs)
- No B2B for either team
- Both teams are neutral pace
- Phoenix is neutral at 50% OVER rate
- Portland has no tracked data
- Phoenix has been our worst-predicted team: 0% accuracy across 2 games
- Lowest total on the board at 218.5
- No signals to exploit in any direction
- PHX: Devin Booker OUT (Right Ankle sprain) — 25+ PPG star scorer removed
- PHX: Jalen Green Questionable (hamstring/hip) — may also miss
- POR: Damian Lillard OUT (Left Achilles management) — 25+ PPG star scorer removed
- POR: Scoot Henderson DOUBTFUL (hamstring tear) — likely out, key young scorer
- POR: Deni Avdija DOUBTFUL (back strain) — another starter likely out
- POR: Jrue Holiday Questionable (personal reasons), Kris Murray OUT, Matisse Thybulle OUT
- Injury report was the decisive factor today — star absences across the slate
- 3 HIGH confidence picks all driven by 20+ PPG scorers OUT on both sides
- B2B remains the strongest primary signal (PHI pick)
- Staying within 4 pts of Vegas for HIGH confidence (justified by star absences)
- DEN OVER stays within 2.1 pts — optimal range for MEDIUM
- SKIP used for 3 games with mixed signals and no clear injury edge
Predicted Total: 219.0 | Edge: 4.2 points below Vegas (justified by dual star absences)
PHI @ GSW UNDER 221.4
Confidence: HIGH
Key Factors:
Predicted Total: 218.0 | Edge: 3.4 points below Vegas
PHX @ POR UNDER 218.5
Confidence: HIGH
Key Factors:
Predicted Total: 215.0 | Edge: 3.5 points below Vegas (justified by dual star absences)
Game-by-Game Analysis
Game 1: Denver Nuggets @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: 228.9
#### Factor Analysis:
| Factor | Finding | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| B2B Status | Neither team on B2B | Neutral |
| Pace | DEN fast (100+ poss) / DET neutral | Slight OVER |
| Team O/U Trend | DEN: 100% over (2 games), DET: 100% over (1 game) | OVER |
| Historical Accuracy | DEN: 50% correct, DET: 0% correct | Mixed |
#### Analysis:
Predicted Total: 231.0 (2.1 pts over Vegas)
Pick: OVER 228.9 | Confidence: MEDIUM | Factors Used: Denver fast pace, both teams 100% OVER trend, OVER picks outperforming in our system, no B2B fatigue
Game 2: Utah Jazz @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: 236.6
#### Factor Analysis:
| Factor | Finding | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| B2B Status | IND on B2B (played HOU yesterday) | UNDER (-3 to -4 pts) |
| Pace | UTA neutral / IND fast (100+ poss) | Mixed (neutral) |
| Team O/U Trend | UTA: no data, IND: 100% over (2 games) | OVER lean |
| Historical Accuracy | UTA: 100% correct (1), IND: 50% correct (2) | Mixed |
#### Analysis:
Pick: SKIP | Reason: Direct conflict between Indiana's B2B fatigue (UNDER signal) and their fast pace + 100% OVER trend. Vegas total already very high at 236.6 suggesting pace is priced in. No clear edge.
Game 3: New York Knicks @ Washington Wizards
Vegas Total: 227.6
#### Factor Analysis:
| Factor | Finding | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| B2B Status | Neither team on B2B | Neutral |
| Pace | NYK slow (<97 poss) / WAS neutral | Slight UNDER |
| Team O/U Trend | NYK: 0% over (1 game), WAS: no data | UNDER lean |
| Historical Accuracy | NYK: 100% correct (1), WAS: no data | N/A |
#### Analysis:
Pick: SKIP | Reason: No B2B situation. NYK slow pace provides slight UNDER lean but insufficient data and only one factor aligned. Need stronger signals.
Game 4: Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat
Vegas Total: 241.1
#### Factor Analysis:
| Factor | Finding | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| B2B Status | Neither team on B2B | Neutral |
| Pace | ATL fast (100+ poss) / MIA slow (<97 poss) | Mixed (neutral) |
| Team O/U Trend | ATL: 100% over (1 game), MIA: 50% neutral | Slight OVER |
| Historical Accuracy | ATL: 100% correct (1), MIA: 50% correct (2) | Mixed |
#### Analysis:
#### Injury Update:
With Herro OUT and Rozier OUT, Miami is missing ~37 combined PPG from their backcourt. Even though the pace matchup is neutral, this is a significant scoring reduction. The highest total on the board (241.1) may not have fully priced in Rozier being out.
3 factors now align: Herro OUT (star scorer, -3 to -4 pts), Rozier OUT (key scorer, -1 to -2 pts), potential Porzingis absence. Staying within 4 pts of Vegas at 3.1 pts under.
Predicted Total: 238.0 (3.1 pts under Vegas)
Pick: UNDER 241.1 | Confidence: MEDIUM | Factors Used: Herro OUT (-3 to -4 pts), Rozier OUT (-1 to -2 pts), potential Porzingis absence, highest total on board may not reflect full injury impact
Game 5: Los Angeles Lakers @ Brooklyn Nets
Vegas Total: 222.4
#### Factor Analysis:
| Factor | Finding | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| B2B Status | Neither team on B2B | Neutral |
| Pace | LAL neutral / BKN neutral | Neutral |
| Team O/U Trend | LAL: 0% over (1 game), BKN: 0% over (1 game) | UNDER lean |
| Historical Accuracy | LAL: 100% correct (1), BKN: 100% correct (1) | Both right |
#### Analysis:
Pick: SKIP | Reason: No B2B, neutral pace matchup. Both teams have UNDER trends but only 1 game each. Conflict between system OVER lean and team UNDER trends. Not enough conviction.
Game 6: Boston Celtics @ Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Total: 223.2
#### Factor Analysis:
| Factor | Finding | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| B2B Status | Neither team on B2B | Neutral |
| Pace | BOS neutral / DAL neutral | Neutral |
| Team O/U Trend | BOS: 0% over (2 games), DAL: 0% over (1 game) | UNDER |
| Historical Accuracy | BOS: 100% correct (2), DAL: 100% correct (1) | Both right |
#### Analysis:
#### Injury Update:
This changes everything. Both teams are missing their best scorer (Tatum for BOS, Irving for DAL). Combined that's 50+ PPG removed from the game. Per guidelines, star scorer OUT (20+ PPG) = -3 to -4 pts each, so combined impact is -6 to -8 pts. Dallas is especially gutted with Irving, Washington, Davis, and Lively all out.
5 factors now align: BOS UNDER trend (strong), DAL UNDER trend, Tatum OUT (-3 to -4 pts), Irving OUT (-3 to -4 pts), Dallas roster decimation. This escalates to HIGH confidence.
Predicted Total: 219.0 (4.2 pts under Vegas — justified by dual star absences meeting HIGH confidence threshold)
Pick: UNDER 223.2 | Confidence: HIGH | Factors Used: Tatum OUT (-3 to -4 pts), Irving OUT (-3 to -4 pts), BOS 100% UNDER trend, DAL 100% UNDER trend, Dallas severely shorthanded, 100% prediction accuracy on both teams
Game 7: Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 223.4
#### Factor Analysis:
| Factor | Finding | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| B2B Status | Neither team on B2B | Neutral |
| Pace | CHI neutral / MIL neutral | Neutral |
| Team O/U Trend | CHI: 50% neutral, MIL: 0% over (1 game) | Slight UNDER |
| Historical Accuracy | CHI: 50% correct (2), MIL: 100% correct (1) | Mixed |
#### Analysis:
#### Injury Update:
Giannis being OUT is the biggest single-player absence on the entire slate. He's a 30+ PPG scorer, which per guidelines = -3 to -4 pts minimum (likely more for a player of his caliber). Giddey being out for Chicago removes another 15+ PPG. Combined that's ~45+ PPG of scoring removed.
3 factors now align: Giannis OUT (-3 to -4 pts), Giddey OUT (-1 to -2 pts), Milwaukee UNDER trend (100%, 1 game). Staying within 4 pts of Vegas at 3.4 pts under.
Predicted Total: 220.0 (3.4 pts under Vegas)
Pick: UNDER 223.4 | Confidence: MEDIUM | Factors Used: Giannis OUT (-3 to -4 pts), Giddey OUT (-1 to -2 pts), Milwaukee 100% UNDER trend, both teams depleted rosters
Game 8: Orlando Magic @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 219.6
#### Factor Analysis:
| Factor | Finding | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| B2B Status | Neither team on B2B | Neutral |
| Pace | ORL slow (<97 poss) / OKC fast (100+ poss) | Mixed (neutral) |
| Team O/U Trend | ORL: 0% over (1 game), OKC: 100% over (1 game) | Conflicting |
| Historical Accuracy | ORL: 100% correct (1), OKC: 100% correct (1) | Both right |
#### Analysis:
Pick: SKIP | Reason: Direct conflict between Orlando's UNDER trend and OKC's OVER trend. Pace mismatch (slow vs fast) is neutral per guidelines. No B2B. Classic conflicting signals.
Game 9: Philadelphia 76ers @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 221.4
#### Factor Analysis:
| Factor | Finding | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| B2B Status | PHI on B2B (played @ LAC yesterday) | UNDER (-4 to -5 pts) |
| Pace | PHI neutral / GSW neutral | Neutral |
| Team O/U Trend | PHI: 100% over (2 games), GSW: 100% over (1 game) | OVER lean |
| Historical Accuracy | PHI: 0% correct (2), GSW: 0% correct (1) | Both wrong |
#### Analysis:
#### Injury Update:
Stephen Curry being OUT is a game-changer. Combined with Butler's ACL tear, GSW is missing two of their top scorers. Add PHI's away B2B fatigue and potential Embiid rest, and this is the strongest UNDER case on the slate.
5+ factors align: PHI away B2B (-4 to -5 pts), Curry OUT (-3 to -4 pts), Butler OUT (-3 to -4 pts), GSW roster decimation, potential Embiid rest.
Predicted Total: 218.0 (3.4 pts under Vegas — justified by B2B + dual star absences at HIGH confidence)
Pick: UNDER 221.4 | Confidence: HIGH | Factors Used: PHI away B2B (-4 to -5 pts), Curry OUT (-3 to -4 pts), Butler OUT (-3 to -4 pts), Kuminga OUT, potential Embiid rest on B2B, GSW roster severely depleted
Game 10: Phoenix Suns @ Portland Trail Blazers
Vegas Total: 218.5
#### Factor Analysis:
| Factor | Finding | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| B2B Status | Neither team on B2B | Neutral |
| Pace | PHX neutral / POR neutral | Neutral |
| Team O/U Trend | PHX: 50% neutral, POR: no data | Neutral |
| Historical Accuracy | PHX: 0% correct (2), POR: no data | Poor |
#### Analysis:
#### Injury Update:
This changes entirely. Both teams are missing their franchise player and best scorer. Booker OUT for PHX (-3 to -4 pts) and Lillard OUT for POR (-3 to -4 pts) = combined -6 to -8 pts impact. Portland is especially gutted with Henderson and Avdija also likely out. This is already the lowest total on the board at 218.5, and it should go even lower.
4+ factors align: Booker OUT (-3 to -4 pts), Lillard OUT (-3 to -4 pts), Henderson likely OUT, Portland roster decimated. This meets HIGH confidence criteria with dual star absences.
Predicted Total: 215.0 (3.5 pts under Vegas — justified by dual star absences at HIGH confidence)
Pick: UNDER 218.5 | Confidence: HIGH | Factors Used: Booker OUT (-3 to -4 pts), Lillard OUT (-3 to -4 pts), Henderson DOUBTFUL, Avdija DOUBTFUL, both teams' best scorers absent, Portland severely depleted
Summary
Total Picks: 7 (1 OVER, 6 UNDER, 3 SKIP)
Best Bets (HIGH Confidence)
1. BOS @ DAL UNDER 223.2 — Tatum OUT + Irving OUT = 50+ PPG removed. Both teams 100% UNDER trend with 100% prediction accuracy. Dallas decimated. 2. PHI @ GSW UNDER 221.4 — PHI away B2B + Curry OUT + Butler OUT. Triple UNDER signal (fatigue + dual star absences). GSW roster gutted. 3. PHX @ POR UNDER 218.5 — Booker OUT + Lillard OUT = 50+ PPG removed. Henderson & Avdija doubtful. Both rosters severely depleted.
Additional Picks (MEDIUM Confidence)
4. DEN @ DET OVER 228.9 — Denver fast pace + 100% OVER trend (2 games). OVER picks outperforming UNDER in our system (67% vs 47%). 5. ATL @ MIA UNDER 241.1 — Herro OUT + Rozier OUT = ~37 PPG removed from MIA backcourt. Highest total on board may not reflect full injury impact. 6. CHI @ MIL UNDER 223.4 — Giannis OUT (30+ PPG superstar) + Giddey OUT. Milwaukee depleted across the roster.
Learnings Applied
Factors Used Today
| Factor | Times Used | Direction | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Star Scorer OUT | 5 | UNDER | |
| B2B Away | 1 | UNDER | |
| Fast Pace | 1 | OVER | |
| Team O/U Trend | 7 | Mixed | |
| Roster Depletion | 4 | UNDER | _Generated: 2026-02-03_ |