NBA Over/Under Analysis - 2026-02-05
Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Total Picks | 2 |
| Correct | 1 |
| Accuracy | 50% |
| Skipped | 6 | Results | Game | Pick | Vegas | Actual | Result | Margin |
| ------------------------------------ | --------- | ----- | ------ | -------- | ------ |
| Charlotte Hornets @ Houston Rockets | UNDER 214 | 217.4 | 208 | ✅ UNDER | -9.4 |
| San Antonio Spurs @ Dallas Mavericks | UNDER 224 | 227.2 | 258 | ❌ OVER | +30.8 |
Correct Picks (1)
Charlotte Hornets @ Houston Rockets
- Pick: UNDER 214
- Vegas: 217.4 | Actual: 208
- Confidence: MEDIUM
- Factors: None specified
- Margin: -9.4 pts
Wrong Picks (1)
San Antonio Spurs @ Dallas Mavericks
- Pick: UNDER 224
- Vegas: 227.2 | Actual: 258
- Confidence: HIGH
- Factors: None specified
- Margin: +30.8 pts
- Why wrong: Game went OVER - scoring higher than expected
Cumulative Stats
- Overall Accuracy: 52% (15/29)
- Last 5 Days: 83%, 0%, 50%, 67%, 50%
Lessons Learned
- OT risk: DEN@NYK double OT added 45 pts to total, turning a 10.3 pt UNDER win
into a loss on the books
- 📊 Staying closer to Vegas (0-2 pts) has 23% better accuracy
- 📈 OVER picks outperforming UNDER by 27%
- 🔴 MEDIUM confidence below 50% - review criteria
- 2026-02-05: Wrong picks missed by avg 30.8 pts - totals were volatile