NBA Over/Under Predictions - February 5, 2026
Today's Picks Summary
| Game | Vegas Total | Pick | Predicted Total | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAS @ DAL | 227.2 | UNDER 227.2 | 224.0 | HIGH |
| CHA @ HOU | 217.4 | UNDER 217.4 | 214.0 | MEDIUM |
| BKN @ ORL | 214.6 | SKIP | - | - |
| WAS @ DET | 227.1 | SKIP | - | - |
| UTA @ ATL | 242.8 | SKIP | - | - |
| CHI @ TOR | 225.8 | SKIP | - | - |
| GSW @ PHX | 216.0 | SKIP | - | - |
| PHI @ LAL | 232.8 | SKIP | - | - |
Best Bet of the Day
SAS @ DAL UNDER 227.2
Confidence: HIGH
Key Factors:
- San Antonio on away B2B — played OKC at home last night, now travels to Dallas. Away B2B = -4 to -5 pts per guidelines
- Away B2B is 100% accurate in our system (2/2) — most reliable UNDER pattern
- Dallas is decimated: Kyrie Irving OUT (season-ending ACL), Dereck Lively OUT (season-ending), P.J. Washington OUT (concussion protocol) — three key starters missing, plus multiple newly acquired players from the AD trade unlikely to play or integrate immediately
- SAS also missing Sochan (~15 PPG) — combined missing PPG across both teams is massive but largely priced into the line
- Dallas 0% OVER rate (2 games, both UNDER) and 100% prediction accuracy (2/2) — strongest UNDER-trending team in our system
- San Antonio 0% OVER rate (2 games, both UNDER) and **100% prediction accuracy** (1/1) — both teams lean UNDER
- Trade deadline chaos on Dallas: Middleton, Gafford, Bagley, Branham all Day-to-Day — first game with new roster construction
- Both teams have >0% prediction accuracy, meeting HIGH confidence requirement
- Houston on home B2B — hosted Boston last night, now hosts Charlotte. Home B2B = -3 to -4 pts per guidelines
- Houston is a slow-pace team — pace alignment supports UNDER direction
- Houston 33% OVER rate (1 over, 2 under in 3 games) — UNDER trend
- Fred VanVleet OUT (season-ending torn ACL) — already priced into line but removes Houston's primary playmaker/scorer
- Houston prediction accuracy: 67% (2/3) — proven in system
- Charlotte has no tracking data (0 games) — unproven team caps at MEDIUM
- Important caveat: Home B2B alone is not as reliable as away B2B. Our only home B2B pick was WRONG (NOP@MIL, 0/1). However, that failure involved replacement player effect from Giannis OUT — here, VanVleet has been out all season (no replacement player spike expected)
- No major Charlotte injuries — CHA relatively healthy
- No B2B for either team — primary edge finder absent
- Orlando is a slow-pace team providing a slight UNDER lean, but that alone is insufficient
- Franz Wagner OUT (22+ PPG, high ankle sprain since December) — already priced into the line given extended absence
- Cam Thomas OUT (15.6 PPG, personal/trade deadline reasons) — may not be priced in if announced recently
- Both teams have neutral O/U trends (50%)
- The 214.6 total is already the second-lowest on the board — Vegas accounts for these teams' defensive identities and injuries
- Without B2B, only 1 factor aligns (pace) — below the 2-factor minimum for a LOW pick
- Trade deadline uncertainty: Cam Thomas may be traded, adding roster chaos
- No B2B for either team
- Both teams trend OVER: WAS 100% (1 game), DET 100% (2 games)
- Washington is a completely new roster post-trade deadline: Trae Young OUT, Anthony Davis OUT, Tre Johnson OUT, D'Angelo Russell DTD. This is essentially a G-League lineup
- Cade Cunningham Questionable (24+ PPG wrist) — if he sits, Detroit loses their star and the game becomes two depleted rosters
- Trade deadline chaos on both sides creates extreme unpredictability
- Per auto-SKIP rule: both teams missing 30+ PPG combined makes this too unpredictable (replacement player effect)
- Washington has zero tracking data in our system
- No B2B for either team
- Atlanta is a fast-pace team, but Utah is neutral — pace is mixed/slight OVER
- Keyonte George OUT (24.2 PPG) — Utah's breakout star and primary scorer. Massive loss
- Walker Kessler OUT (season-ending torn labrum) — defensive anchor removed
- Jaren Jackson Jr. OUT (newly traded from MEM, unlikely to debut)
- Jonathan Kuminga OUT (knee, newly acquired by ATL from GSW)
- Buddy Hield OUT (newly acquired, availability unclear)
- Both teams are in extreme trade deadline roster flux
- The 242.8 total is the highest on the board — but this was likely set before the full trade deadline picture became clear
- Per auto-SKIP rule: both teams missing 30+ PPG combined without B2B = too unpredictable
- Star absences without B2B are unreliable for UNDER picks (learned from PHX@POR 255 and MIL 131 without B2B)
- Toronto on home B2B — hosted Minnesota last night. Home B2B = -3 to -4 pts
- However, both teams trend OVER: CHI 67% (3 games), TOR 100% (1 game) — directly conflicts with UNDER signal
- Chicago in massive roster flux: Giddey OUT (18+ PPG), multiple newly acquired players (Simons, Ivey, Conley all DTD) — first-game-together dynamics
- Toronto without Poeltl (14 PPG, defensive anchor) — his absence could boost scoring (defensive anchor OUT = +1 to +2 pts per guidelines), which conflicts with the B2B UNDER lean
- Home B2B is 0/1 in our system (NOP@MIL failed) — unreliable alone
- Chicago prediction accuracy: 33% (1/3) — poorly predicted team
- Toronto has no tracking data — unproven
- Pace is neutral — no pace alignment to support the B2B signal
- Per updated rules: MEDIUM UNDER requires B2B + one more aligned factor. Here B2B conflicts with OVER trends and defensive anchor absence
- No B2B for either team
- Stephen Curry OUT (27+ PPG, knee) — third consecutive missed game
- Devin Booker OUT (27+ PPG, ankle) — out since Jan 23
- Jimmy Butler OUT (22+ PPG, season-ending ACL) — acquired by GSW
- Kristaps Porzingis OUT (17+ PPG, illness) — hasn't played since Jan 7
- Combined missing PPG across both teams exceeds 90+ PPG — extreme depletion
- The 216.0 total is the lowest on the board and already prices in these absences
- Phoenix is 0% prediction accuracy (0/3) — worst team in our system. Per rules, never assign HIGH on 0% accuracy teams
- Per auto-SKIP rule: both teams missing 30+ PPG combined = too unpredictable
- Star absences without B2B unreliable for UNDER (learned lesson)
- Replacement player effect is completely unpredictable at this scale
- No B2B for either team
- Joel Embiid DTD (33+ PPG, ankle) — THE swing factor. If he plays, 232.8 makes sense. If he sits, total drops significantly
- However, per our rules, star absences without B2B are unreliable for UNDER (learned from multiple failures)
- Philadelphia prediction accuracy: 33% (1/3) — poorly predicted team
- Los Angeles prediction accuracy: 100% (1/1) — but only 1 game sample
- Philly trends OVER at 67% (3 games)
- No pace alignment — both neutral
- Highest total on the board at 232.8 — big number but Embiid's status is the only factor and we can't reliably bet on star absence
- B2B is the anchor for every pick — both picks have B2B as primary factor
- Away B2B (SAS) gets HIGH — 2/2 in system, strongest pattern
- Home B2B (HOU) gets MEDIUM — 0/1 in system but prior failure was replacement player effect, not B2B itself. HOU slow pace adds alignment
- OVER picks deserve priority (75% accuracy) but no OVER setups available today — no fast-vs-fast matchups without B2B conflicts or roster chaos
- Star absences without B2B = SKIP (applied to 4 games)
- Trade deadline roster flux = SKIP (applied to 5 games)
Predicted Total: 224.0 (3.2 pts under Vegas — justified by away B2B + both teams trending UNDER + Dallas roster devastation)
Pick: UNDER 227.2 | Confidence: HIGH | Factors Used: SAS away B2B (-4 to -5 pts), DAL 100% UNDER trend (2 games), SAS 100% UNDER trend (2 games), DAL missing 3 starters (Kyrie/Lively/PJ Washington), trade deadline roster chaos
Additional Picks
CHA @ HOU UNDER 217.4
Confidence: MEDIUM
Key Factors:
Why not HIGH: Charlotte has 0 games in our system (unproven). Home B2B is 0/1 in our tracking (though the failure was due to replacement player effect, not the B2B signal itself). Per rules, HIGH requires proven teams.
Predicted Total: 214.0 (3.4 pts under Vegas — justified by home B2B + slow pace + Houston UNDER trend)
Pick: UNDER 217.4 | Confidence: MEDIUM | Factors Used: HOU home B2B (-3 to -4 pts), HOU slow pace, HOU 33% OVER rate (UNDER trend), VanVleet OUT (priced in), Charlotte unproven (caps confidence)
Game-by-Game Analysis
Game 1: Brooklyn Nets @ Orlando Magic
Vegas Total: 214.6
#### Factor Analysis:
| Factor | Finding | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| B2B Status | Neither team on B2B | Neutral |
| Pace | BKN neutral / ORL slow (<97 poss) | Slight UNDER |
| Team O/U Trend | BKN: 50% neutral (2 games), ORL: 50% neutral (2 games) | Neutral |
| Historical Accuracy | BKN: 100% correct (1), ORL: 100% correct (1) | Good |
#### Analysis:
Pick: SKIP | Reason: No B2B, only 1 factor (pace), major injuries already priced into low line. Insufficient edge.
Game 2: Washington Wizards @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: 227.1
#### Factor Analysis:
| Factor | Finding | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| B2B Status | Neither team on B2B | Neutral |
| Pace | WAS neutral / DET neutral | Neutral |
| Team O/U Trend | WAS: 100% over (1 game), DET: 100% over (2 games) | OVER lean |
| Historical Accuracy | WAS: no data, DET: 50% correct (2) | Mixed |
#### Analysis:
Pick: SKIP | Reason: No B2B, massive roster upheaval on both teams from trade deadline, both teams missing 30+ PPG combined (auto-SKIP trigger), Washington has no system data. Replacement player chaos without B2B.
Game 3: Utah Jazz @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: 242.8
#### Factor Analysis:
| Factor | Finding | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| B2B Status | Neither team on B2B | Neutral |
| Pace | UTA neutral / ATL fast (100+ poss) | Slight OVER |
| Team O/U Trend | UTA: 50% neutral (2 games), ATL: 100% over (2 games) | OVER lean |
| Historical Accuracy | UTA: 100% correct (1), ATL: 50% correct (2) | Mixed |
#### Analysis:
Pick: SKIP | Reason: No B2B, massive trade deadline roster upheaval on both teams, both missing 30+ PPG combined (auto-SKIP), star absences without B2B unreliable for UNDER. Despite the high total looking tempting, replacement player effect makes direction unpredictable.
Game 4: Chicago Bulls @ Toronto Raptors
Vegas Total: 225.8
#### Factor Analysis:
| Factor | Finding | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| B2B Status | TOR on home B2B (hosted MIN last night) | UNDER (-3 to -4) |
| Pace | CHI neutral / TOR neutral | Neutral |
| Team O/U Trend | CHI: 67% over (3 games), TOR: 100% over (1 game) | OVER lean |
| Historical Accuracy | CHI: 33% correct (3), TOR: no data | Poor |
#### Analysis:
Pick: SKIP | Reason: Home B2B (0/1 in system) conflicts with both teams' OVER trends and Poeltl defensive anchor absence (+scoring). Chicago roster in trade flux. Toronto unproven. No pace alignment. Conflicting signals without resolution.
Game 5: Charlotte Hornets @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 217.4
_(See Additional Picks section above for full analysis)_
Pick: UNDER 217.4
Confidence: MEDIUMGame 6: San Antonio Spurs @ Dallas MavericksVegas Total: 227.2 _(See Best Bet section above for full analysis)_ Pick: UNDER 227.2 | Confidence: HIGHGame 7: Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix SunsVegas Total: 216.0 #### Factor Analysis: | Factor | Finding | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B2B Status | Neither team on B2B | Neutral | ||
| Pace | GSW neutral / PHX neutral | Neutral | ||
| Team O/U Trend | GSW: 50% neutral (2 games), PHX: 67% over (3 games) | Slight OVER | ||
| Historical Accuracy | GSW: 50% correct (2), PHX: 0% correct (3) | PHX very poor |
#### Analysis:
Pick: SKIP | Reason: No B2B, combined 90+ PPG missing (auto-SKIP trigger), Phoenix 0% prediction accuracy (0/3), replacement player effect at this scale is completely unmodelable. Line already low at 216.
Game 8: Philadelphia 76ers @ Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Total: 232.8
#### Factor Analysis:
| Factor | Finding | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| B2B Status | Neither team on B2B | Neutral |
| Pace | PHI neutral / LAL neutral | Neutral |
| Team O/U Trend | PHI: 67% over (3 games), LAL: 50% neutral (2 games) | Slight OVER |
| Historical Accuracy | PHI: 33% correct (3), LAL: 100% correct (1) | Mixed |
#### Analysis:
Pick: SKIP | Reason: No B2B, Embiid DTD creates binary outcome that can't be modeled, star absence without B2B unreliable, Philadelphia 33% prediction accuracy. Only 1 factor and it's uncertain.
Summary
Total Picks: 2 (0 OVER, 2 UNDER, 6 SKIP)
Best Bet (HIGH Confidence)
1. SAS @ DAL UNDER 227.2 — SAS away B2B (100% system accuracy on away B2B, 2/2). Both teams 0% OVER rate, both 100% prediction accuracy. Dallas missing 3 starters + trade deadline chaos. Predicted total: 224.0.
Additional Pick (MEDIUM Confidence)
2. CHA @ HOU UNDER 217.4 — HOU home B2B + slow pace + UNDER trend. VanVleet OUT (season, priced in). Charlotte unproven caps at MEDIUM. Home B2B is 0/1 but prior failure was replacement player effect, not B2B failure. Predicted total: 214.0.
Why So Many SKIPs (6 of 8)
Today's slate is dominated by trade deadline chaos. Multiple teams (WAS, DAL, UTA, ATL, CHI, GSW) have dramatically reshuffled rosters in the last 24 hours. Our system correctly identifies that:
1. Star absences without B2B are unreliable (proven 0/2 on Feb 3) 2. Replacement player effect is unpredictable without fatigue as anchor 3. Both teams missing 30+ PPG combined = auto-SKIP (triggers on 4 games) 4. Trade deadline roster flux makes pace/trend data obsolete for affected teams 5. Quality over quantity — 2 picks with B2B edge beats 8 picks with no edge
Only 3 games have any B2B factor (TOR, HOU, SAS), and one of those (TOR) has conflicting signals. The 2 picks we make both have B2B as the primary factor, consistent with our system's rule that B2B is the anchor for every UNDER pick.
Learnings Applied
Factors Used Today
| Factor | Times Used | Direction | |
|---|---|---|---|
| B2B Away | 1 | UNDER | |
| B2B Home | 1 | UNDER | |
| Slow Pace Opponent | 1 | UNDER | |
| Team O/U Trend | 8 | Mixed | |
| Roster Depletion | 2 | Context | _Generated: 2026-02-05_ |