NBA Over/Under Predictions - February 6, 2026

Today's Picks Summary

Best Bet of the Day

MIA @ BOS UNDER 229.6

Confidence: MEDIUM

Key Factors:

• Pace mismatch: Fast vs Slow — Miami is a fast-pace team (104.3 poss/game)
but Boston is a slow-pace team (95.3 poss/game). Fast vs Slow = neutral per guidelines, BUT Boston at home controls pace. Home team pace tends to dominate, and BOS has been the strongest UNDER team in our system
• Boston 0% OVER rate (0 overs in 4 games, 100% UNDER trend) — the strongest
UNDER-trending team in our entire dataset
• Boston 100% prediction accuracy (4/4) — best team in our system, every
pick on BOS games has been correct
• Tyler Herro OUT (ribs) — Miami's leading scorer (~24 PPG). Major scoring
loss for the away team. Announced on today's injury report
• Terry Rozier OUT (not with team) — another key Miami scorer/playmaker
• Jayson Tatum OUT (Achilles repair, season-ending) — Boston's star, but
this has been priced in all season. No replacement player spike expected
• Miami slow-pace identity historically — guidelines list MIA as slow-pace,
and even with updated 104.3 pace number, MIA on the road at Boston will be forced into Boston's slower tempo
• Vegas deviation: 2.6 pts — within the 2-4 pt range, requires strong
factors (BOS UNDER dominance + Herro OUT + pace control)
• Staying close to Vegas (0-2 pts) has 75% accuracy — our 2.6 deviation is
just outside the sweet spot but supported by multiple aligned factors

Why not HIGH: No B2B situation present. Per guidelines, HIGH confidence UNDER requires B2B as primary factor. Despite Boston's perfect UNDER record and prediction accuracy, the absence of B2B fatigue caps this at MEDIUM. Also, MEDIUM confidence picks are at 45% accuracy — we must be selective.

Why this MEDIUM pick is worth taking: Unlike most MEDIUM picks that have dragged our accuracy down, this one has: (1) Boston's unmatched 4/4 prediction accuracy, (2) Boston's 100% UNDER trend, (3) a major away scorer OUT (Herro), and (4) pace control at home. This is the strongest non-B2B setup we've seen.

Predicted Total: 227.0 (2.6 pts under Vegas — justified by BOS UNDER dominance + Herro OUT + Boston home pace control)

Pick: UNDER 229.6 | Confidence: MEDIUM | Factors Used: BOS 100% UNDER trend (4 games), BOS 100% prediction accuracy (4/4), Herro OUT (~24 PPG), Rozier OUT, BOS slow pace at home, pace mismatch favors UNDER

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Game-by-Game Analysis

Game 1: Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics

Vegas Total: 229.6

_(See Best Bet section above for full analysis)_

Pick: UNDER 229.6

Confidence: MEDIUM Game 2: New York Knicks @ Detroit Pistons Vegas Total: 222.4 #### Factor Analysis:	Factor	Finding	Impact
B2B Status	DET on home B2B (hosted WSH last night)	UNDER (-3 to -4)
Pace	NYK average (97.8) / DET fast (100.1)	Neutral
Team O/U Trend	NYK: 33% over (1/3, UNDER trend), DET: 100% over (2/2)	Conflicting
Historical Accuracy	NYK: 100% correct (2/2), DET: 50% correct (1/2)	Mixed
Key Injuries	McBride OUT (NYK), Hart Q (NYK)	Minor

#### Analysis:

• Detroit on home B2B — hosted Washington last night. Home B2B = -3 to -4
pts
• However, Detroit has 100% OVER rate (2/2) — directly conflicts with the
B2B UNDER signal
• Home B2B is 0/1 in our system (NOP@MIL failed due to replacement player
effect)
• Detroit is a fast-pace team (100.1 poss/game) — their natural tempo pushes
scoring UP, conflicting with B2B fatigue
• NYK trends UNDER (33% over rate) which supports UNDER, but DET trends OVER
which opposes it
• No major scoring injuries — McBride and Hart are role players, not star
scorers
• Per updated rules: MEDIUM UNDER requires B2B + one more aligned factor. Here
B2B conflicts with DET's OVER trend and fast pace
• DET prediction accuracy is only 50% — not a well-predicted team

Pick: SKIP | Reason: Home B2B (0/1 in system) directly conflicts with DET's 100% OVER trend and fast pace. Conflicting signals without resolution. Home B2B alone is unreliable per system data.

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Game 3: Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks

Vegas Total: 224.6

#### Factor Analysis:

Factor	Finding	Impact
B2B Status	Neither team on B2B	Neutral
Pace	IND fast (100.8) / MIL average (98.0)	Neutral
Team O/U Trend	IND: 100% over (3/3), MIL: 67% over (2/3)	OVER lean
Historical Accuracy	IND: 50% correct (1/2), MIL: 33% correct (1/3)	Poor
Key Injuries	Haliburton OUT (IND), Mathurin OUT (IND), Giannis OUT (MIL)	Massive

#### Analysis:

• No B2B for either team — primary edge finder absent
• Massive injuries on both sides: Haliburton OUT (tear), Mathurin OUT (not
with team) for Indiana. Giannis OUT (calf strain) for Milwaukee
• Combined missing PPG easily exceeds 30+ across both teams → **auto-SKIP
trigger**
• Per lessons learned: Star absences without B2B are unreliable for UNDER.
Giannis OUT previously led to MIL scoring 131 (no B2B, Feb 3) and 128 in regulation (B2B, Feb 4) — his absence doesn't reliably suppress scoring
• Indiana has 100% OVER rate (3/3) and Milwaukee 67% OVER (2/3) — both trend
OVER, but with massive roster depletion the trends become unreliable
• Milwaukee prediction accuracy: 33% (1/3) — poorly predicted team
• Per rules: never assign HIGH on 0% accuracy teams. MIL at 33% is close

Pick: SKIP | Reason: No B2B, both teams missing 30+ PPG combined (auto-SKIP trigger), star absences without B2B unreliable. Giannis OUT + Haliburton OUT + Mathurin OUT creates unpredictable replacement player dynamics.

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Game 4: New Orleans Pelicans @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Vegas Total: 236.6

#### Factor Analysis:

Factor	Finding	Impact
B2B Status	Neither team on B2B	Neutral
Pace	NOP fast (100.0) / MIN fast (100.8)	OVER (+2-4)
Team O/U Trend	NOP: 100% over (2/2), MIN: 100% over (2/2)	Strong OVER
Historical Accuracy	NOP: 0% correct (0/2), MIN: 0% correct (0/1)	Very poor
Key Injuries	Murray OUT (NOP, season-ending Achilles), Randle Q (MIN)	Moderate

#### Analysis:

• No B2B for either team
• Fast vs Fast pace matchup — both teams at 100+ poss/game. Per guidelines,
Fast vs Fast = OVER (+2 to +4 pts). This is an auto-OVER trigger IF no B2B and no major injuries
• Both teams 100% OVER rate — NOP (2/2) and MIN (2/2) strongly trend OVER
• Dejounte Murray OUT (season-ending Achilles) — already priced in given
extended absence
• Julius Randle QUESTIONABLE (thumb) — if he sits, that's ~21 PPG missing.
But per rules, star absence without B2B is unreliable for UNDER
• The 236.6 total is the highest on the board — Vegas already accounts for the
pace and scoring environment
• NOP prediction accuracy: 0% (0/2) and MIN: 0% (0/1) — both teams have
ZERO prediction accuracy in our system
• Per rules: **never assign HIGH confidence on teams with 0% prediction
accuracy**
• Despite Fast vs Fast + both trending OVER, we cannot assign meaningful
confidence when both teams are 0% accuracy. The OVER setup looks strong but our system has never correctly predicted either team
• OVER picks are 75% accurate overall — this would be an OVER lean, but the 0%
accuracy on both teams is a red flag

Pick: SKIP | Reason: Despite strong OVER setup (Fast vs Fast, both 100% OVER trend), both teams have 0% prediction accuracy (0/2 NOP, 0/1 MIN). Cannot assign meaningful confidence on teams we've never correctly predicted. The 236.6 line is already high, accounting for pace.

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Game 5: Memphis Grizzlies @ Portland Trail Blazers

Vegas Total: 232.0

#### Factor Analysis:

Factor	Finding	Impact
B2B Status	Neither team on B2B	Neutral
Pace	MEM fast (101.1) / POR fast (100.9)	OVER (+2 to +4)
Team O/U Trend	MEM: 100% over (2/2), POR: 100% over (1/1)	Strong OVER
Historical Accuracy	MEM: 0% correct (0/1), POR: 0% correct (0/1)	Very poor
Key Injuries	Ja OUT, Aldama OUT, Edey OUT, Jerome OUT (MEM); Lillard OUT, K.Murray OUT (POR)	Massive

#### Analysis:

• No B2B for either team
• Fast vs Fast pace matchup — both teams at 100+ poss/game. Auto-OVER
trigger per guidelines
• Both teams trend 100% OVER — MEM (2/2) and POR (1/1)
• Memphis is decimated: Ja Morant OUT (UCL sprain), Santi Aldama OUT
(management), Zach Edey OUT (reaction), Ty Jerome OUT (management), Brandon Clarke OUT (calf). Memphis is missing their best player plus several rotation pieces
• Portland missing Lillard OUT (injury management) and Kris Murray OUT
(back)
• Combined missing PPG easily exceeds 30+ → auto-SKIP trigger
• Both teams 0% prediction accuracy — MEM (0/1) and POR (0/1)
• Per rules: never HIGH on 0% accuracy teams, and star absences without B2B
unreliable
• Despite the -7 spread favoring Portland heavily, replacement player dynamics
with this many injuries make the total unpredictable

Pick: SKIP | Reason: No B2B, both teams missing 30+ PPG combined (auto-SKIP), both teams 0% prediction accuracy (0/1 each). Memphis missing 5+ rotation players and Portland missing Lillard. Replacement player effect at this scale is unmodelable.

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Game 6: Los Angeles Clippers @ Sacramento Kings

Vegas Total: 222.4

#### Factor Analysis:

Factor	Finding	Impact
B2B Status	Neither team on B2B	Neutral
Pace	LAC slow (95.9) / SAC average (99.4)	Neutral
Team O/U Trend	LAC: 50% neutral (2/4), SAC: 50% neutral (1/2)	Neutral
Historical Accuracy	LAC: 0% correct (0/3), SAC: 100% correct (1/1)	Mixed
Key Injuries	Beal OUT (hip), Garland OUT (trade pending) (LAC); K.Murray OUT (ankle), Sabonis Q (SAC)	Significant

#### Analysis:

• No B2B for either team
• LA Clippers have 0% prediction accuracy (0/3) — worst in system alongside
PHX. Per rules, never HIGH on 0% accuracy teams
• Beal OUT (hip fracture, season-ending) — priced in. Garland OUT (trade pending
from CLE) — newly acquired, may not play regardless
• Keegan Murray OUT (ankle sprain) for Sacramento. Sabonis QUESTIONABLE (back) —
if he sits, combined missing PPG is significant
• Pace is neutral (slow vs average) — no strong directional signal
• Both teams have neutral O/U trends (50%)
• Trade deadline flux on Clippers side — newly acquired players (Garland,
Jackson, Mathurin all trade pending/OUT) create unpredictable lineup dynamics
• Without B2B and with 0% LAC accuracy, no edge exists

Pick: SKIP | Reason: No B2B, LAC 0% prediction accuracy (0/3), trade deadline roster flux on LAC, neutral pace and O/U trends. No factors align for a confident directional pick.

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Summary

Total Picks: 1 (0 OVER, 1 UNDER, 5 SKIP)

Best Bet (MEDIUM Confidence)

1. MIA @ BOS UNDER 229.6 — Boston's perfect UNDER record (4/4 games, 100% UNDER trend) and perfect prediction accuracy (4/4 correct) make this the only actionable game. Herro OUT (~24 PPG) and Rozier OUT remove significant Miami scoring. Boston controls pace at home (95.3 poss/game, slowest on today's slate). Predicted total: 227.0.

Why So Many SKIPs (5 of 6)

Today's slate is challenging for the O/U system:

1. Only 1 B2B situation — DET home B2B, but it conflicts with DET's 100% OVER trend and fast pace 2. Multiple 0% accuracy teams — LAC (0/3), MEM (0/1), POR (0/1), NOP (0/2), MIN (0/1) appear in 4 of 6 games. Cannot assign confidence on teams we've never correctly predicted 3. Massive injury load across the board — IND@MIL, MEM@POR, and LAC@SAC all have 30+ PPG missing combined (auto-SKIP) 4. Trade deadline aftermath — Clippers in particular have multiple players with "Trade Pending" status 5. No reliable OVER setups — NOP@MIN and MEM@POR have Fast vs Fast pace but both involve 0% accuracy teams with massive injuries

Learnings Applied

• B2B is anchor for UNDER picks — only game with B2B (NYK@DET) has
conflicting signals, so we SKIP rather than force it
• 0% accuracy teams get no confidence — applied to LAC, MEM, POR, NOP, MIN
• Star absences without B2B = SKIP — applied to IND@MIL (Giannis +
Haliburton), MEM@POR (Ja + Lillard)
• Boston's UNDER dominance is the edge — 4/4 UNDER, 4/4 prediction accuracy
is the single strongest signal on the board
• OVER picks deserve priority (75% accuracy) but no clean OVER setups today
• Stay close to Vegas — our 2.6 pt deviation on MIA@BOS is conservative
• Quality over quantity — 1 well-supported pick beats 6 mediocre ones

Factors Used Today