NBA Over/Under Predictions - February 7, 2026
Today's Picks Summary
| Game | Vegas Total | Pick | Predicted Total | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEM @ POR | 234.9 | UNDER 234.9 | 228.5 | HIGH |
| HOU @ OKC | 211.4 | UNDER 211.4 | 208.5 | MEDIUM |
| CLE @ SAC | 234.1 | UNDER 234.1 | 231.0 | MEDIUM |
| WAS @ BKN | 219.9 | SKIP | - | - |
| DAL @ SAS | 230.1 | SKIP | - | - |
| UTA @ ORL | 237.3 | SKIP | - | - |
| CHA @ ATL | 231.4 | SKIP | - | - |
| DEN @ CHI | 232.7 | SKIP | - | - |
| GSW @ LAL | 221.6 | SKIP | - | - |
| PHI @ PHX | 223.6 | SKIP | - | - |
Best Bet of the Day
MEM @ POR UNDER 234.9
Confidence: HIGH
Key Factors:
- Dual B2B — BOTH teams played yesterday (Feb 6) — Memphis played at Portland last night, Portland hosted Memphis. This is the strongest UNDER signal in our system. Dual B2B record: 1/1 (DEN@NYK scored 216 in regulation, 10.3 pts under Vegas 226.3)
- Memphis away B2B — away B2B is our most reliable UNDER pattern (2/2 historically). Travel factor adds additional fatigue even though MEM stays in the same city
- Portland home B2B — second game in two nights at home
- Massive injuries on Memphis — Ja Morant OUT (wrist), multiple rotation players likely still OUT from yesterday's report. Memphis has been severely shorthanded
- Portland also depleted — Lillard likely still out (injury management from recent reports)
- MEM 100% OVER trend (2/2) — this is a conflicting signal, BUT dual B2B has proven to override team OVER tendencies. DEN@NYK both had OVER trends and still went UNDER in regulation
- POR 100% OVER trend (1/1) — small sample, and dual B2B is the dominant factor
- Vegas deviation: 6.4 pts — this EXCEEDS the 4-pt hard limit. Must adjust. Revised predicted total: 231.0 would be 3.9 pts under. However, dual B2B historically showed -10.3 pts from Vegas (DEN@NYK). Setting at 228.5 (6.4 under) would be aggressive. Compromise: 228.5 — dual B2B impact of -6 to -8 pts per guidelines supports this range, but we should note the deviation risk
- Correction: Per hard limit rules, predicted total cannot deviate more than 4 pts. Revised predicted total: 231.0 (3.9 pts under Vegas)
- massive injuries on both sides suppressing scoring depth. This meets ALL HIGH criteria: B2B required (dual B2B present), pace doesn't conflict (both teams depleted), within 4 pts of Vegas (3.9 pts at 231.0).
- Two slowest-pace teams meeting — Houston is a slow-pace team (<97 poss/game per guidelines). OKC is listed as fast pace, BUT with Jalen Williams OUT (strain), OKC loses a key offensive engine. The 211.4 total is already the lowest on the board — Vegas sees this as a low-scoring game
- Houston 75% prediction accuracy (3/4) — one of our best-predicted teams
- Houston 25% OVER rate (UNDER trend) — HOU goes under 75% of the time in our tracked games
- Jalen Williams OUT for OKC — key scorer and playmaker (~21 PPG). This is a significant scoring loss announced on today's injury report
- Fred VanVleet OUT for HOU — season-ending (ACL), already priced in
- No B2B for either team — this means we cannot go HIGH per guidelines (B2B required for HIGH UNDER)
- OKC 67% OVER trend (2/3) — slight conflict, but OKC's pace will be depressed without Jalen Williams
- OKC 100% prediction accuracy (1/1) — small sample but positive
- Vegas deviation: 2.9 pts — within the 2-4 pt range requiring strong factors
- Sacramento home B2B — Kings played yesterday (@ POR on Feb 6), now hosting Cleveland. Home B2B = -3 to -4 pts per guidelines
- Cleveland is a slow-pace team (<97 poss/game per guidelines) — CLE's defensive identity should suppress pace
- Cleveland away forces slower tempo — CLE controls pace, especially against a fatigued SAC team
- Evan Mobley OUT for CLE (left calf strain) — key defender and secondary scorer (~18 PPG). His absence could increase SAC scoring (defensive anchor OUT = +1 to +2 pts), partially offsetting the B2B effect
- Max Strus OUT for CLE (Jones fracture) — rotation shooter missing
- James Harden QUESTIONABLE (trade pending) — may not play. If he sits, that's ~22 PPG missing for CLE which could significantly reduce total
- SAC 50% O/U trend (neutral) — no strong directional lean
- SAC prediction accuracy: 100% (1/1) — small but positive sample
- CLE prediction accuracy: 0% (0/1) — negative signal, but small sample
- Vegas deviation: 3.1 pts — within 2-4 pt range
- No B2B for either team — primary edge finder absent
- Trae Young OUT for Washington (sprain + quad contusion) — major scorer (~26 PPG). But per guidelines, star absence without B2B is unreliable for UNDER. Replacement player effect could increase pace
- D'Angelo Russell OUT (trade pending), Jaden Hardy OUT (trade pending), Dante Exum OUT (trade pending) — WAS has massive trade deadline roster turnover
- Auto-SKIP trigger consideration: WAS missing potentially 30+ PPG combined across Trae Young + trade pending players, creating unpredictable lineup dynamics
- Neither pace nor O/U trends provide a clear directional signal
- The 219.9 total is already low, reflecting WAS's depleted state
- No B2B for either team
- Kyrie Irving OUT (left knee surgery) for Dallas — star scorer (~24 PPG), but this has been priced in for extended absence
- Dereck Lively OUT (right foot surgery) — also long-term, priced in
- De'Aaron Fox QUESTIONABLE (soreness) — newly acquired by SAS. If he sits, SAS loses their new star acquisition
- Both teams trend UNDER (33% OVER rate each) — directional alignment
- However, no B2B means we can't reach HIGH, and star absences without B2B are unreliable per system rules
- The -10.1 spread suggests a blowout, which can lead to unpredictable garbage time scoring
- Dallas prediction accuracy is decent (67%), SAS is 50%
- Without B2B, only 2 factors align (both UNDER trends) — borderline for MEDIUM, but injuries are long-term and priced in, not fresh news
- No B2B for either team
- Franz Wagner OUT (injury management) — ORL's leading scorer (~24 PPG). Major loss, but per rules star absence without B2B unreliable for UNDER. Replacement player effect could increase pace
- Walker Kessler OUT (recovery) — UTA's rim protector. His absence could increase ORL's interior scoring (+1 to +2 pts as defensive anchor OUT)
- Orlando is a slow-pace team — slight UNDER lean from pace
- Both teams neutral on O/U trends
- The 237.3 total is very high — Vegas may be overestimating. But without B2B, no strong anchor for UNDER
- Wagner OUT without B2B = unreliable UNDER signal per system rules
- No B2B for either team
- Atlanta is a fast-pace team (100+ poss/game) with 100% OVER rate (2/2) — strong OVER lean
- Charlotte trends UNDER (0/1) — directly conflicts with ATL's OVER trend
- Coby White OUT (left calf strain) — Charlotte's key scorer (~19 PPG). Fresh injury, could reduce CHA scoring
- Jonathan Kuminga OUT (trade pending/bruise) — newly acquired by ATL, won't play
- Without B2B, conflicting team trends (ATL OVER vs CHA UNDER), and no clear directional consensus
- Charlotte prediction accuracy is good (100%, 1/1) but ATL is only 50% (1/2)
- No B2B for either team
- Nikola Jokic QUESTIONABLE (left ankle sprain) — if he sits, Denver loses their ~26 PPG superstar. However, per rules: star absence without B2B is unreliable for UNDER prediction
- Aaron Gordon OUT (strain), Peyton Watson OUT (strain) — additional DEN absences
- Cameron Johnson QUESTIONABLE (bruise) — key DEN scorer
- Josh Giddey OUT (CHI, left hamstring) — CHI's primary playmaker
- Both teams lean OVER — DEN 75% OVER rate, CHI 67% OVER rate
- Denver prediction accuracy is good (75%, 3/4), but Chicago is poor (33%, 1/3)
- OVER picks are 75% accurate in our system — the setup leans OVER but: - If Jokic sits, massive scoring reduction (replacement player effect unclear) - CHI's 33% prediction accuracy is a red flag - Without B2B, no strong anchor for any direction
- DEN fast pace + CHI average = slight OVER lean, but not Fast vs Fast
- No B2B for either team
- Golden State is devastated: Stephen Curry OUT (pain syndrome), Jimmy Butler OUT (ACL tear), Kristaps Porzingis OUT (injury management), Seth Curry OUT. GSW is missing their top 3 scorers
- Luka Doncic OUT for Lakers (left hamstring strain) — LAL's new star acquisition, significant scoring loss
- Combined missing PPG across both teams easily exceeds 30+ → **auto-SKIP trigger**
- Both teams have neutral O/U trends (50%) — no directional signal
- Pace is neutral (both average)
- The 221.6 total is already low, reflecting the massive injury situation
- Per rules: star absences without B2B unreliable, and 30+ combined PPG missing = auto-SKIP
- Replacement player dynamics with this many stars out are completely unpredictable
- No B2B for either team
- Phoenix has 0% prediction accuracy (0/3) — worst in the system along with LAC. Per rules: never assign HIGH confidence on 0% accuracy teams
- PHI also poor at 33% (1/3) — both teams are poorly predicted
- Paul George OUT (league suspension) for PHI — key scorer (~23 PPG)
- Joel Embiid QUESTIONABLE (management) — if he sits, PHI loses their best player (~33 PPG when playing)
- Devin Booker QUESTIONABLE (right ankle sprain) — PHX's star scorer (~27 PPG)
- If both Embiid and Booker sit, combined missing PPG could exceed 60+ which would trigger auto-SKIP for massive absences
- Both teams lean OVER (67% each) but prediction accuracy is terrible
- OVER picks are 75% accurate overall, but not on these two teams specifically
- Dual B2B is the strongest signal — MEM@POR dual B2B is an auto-UNDER (1/1 in regulation). This is our ONLY HIGH confidence pick
- Away B2B + slow pace is the next strongest UNDER pattern (2/2) — doesn't apply today but informs our B2B confidence
- Home B2B alone is unreliable (0/1) — CLE@SAC gets MEDIUM not HIGH because SAC is home B2B, not away B2B
- HOU is a system darling — 75% prediction accuracy, 75% UNDER rate, slow pace identity. HOU UNDER picks have been our most reliable non-B2B play
- 0% accuracy teams get no confidence — applied to PHX, and used cautiously on MEM/POR (overridden by dual B2B)
- Star absences without B2B = SKIP — applied to WAS@BKN (Trae OUT), UTA@ORL (Franz OUT), GSW@LAL (Curry/Butler/Porzingis/Doncic OUT)
- Stay close to Vegas (0-2 pts = 75% accuracy) — our deviations: 2.9 (HOU), 3.1 (CLE), 3.9 (MEM) — all in 2-4 pt range requiring strong factors
- Quality over quantity — 3 supported picks with clear edges beats forcing
Why HIGH: Dual B2B (1/1, strongest UNDER signal) + away B2B component (2/2)
Risk: Both teams trend OVER, and POR prediction accuracy is 0% (0/1). MEM is also 0% (0/1). However, dual B2B has never been wrong in regulation in our system, and the fatigue factor with depleted rosters makes UNDER compelling. OT risk remains (DEN@NYK dual B2B went to 2OT, turning a regulation UNDER win into a book loss).
Predicted Total: 231.0 (3.9 pts under Vegas)
Pick: UNDER 234.9 | Confidence: HIGH | Factors Used: Dual B2B (1/1), away B2B (2/2), massive injuries both sides, fatigue with depleted rosters
Second Best Bet
HOU @ OKC UNDER 211.4
Confidence: MEDIUM
Key Factors:
Why MEDIUM (not HIGH): No B2B situation present. Per guidelines, HIGH confidence UNDER requires B2B as primary factor. Despite the strong pace matchup and Houston's excellent prediction accuracy, the absence of B2B caps this at MEDIUM.
Why not SKIP: 3+ factors aligned: (1) slow pace matchup with HOU, (2) Houston's strong UNDER trend (75%), (3) Jalen Williams OUT reducing OKC scoring, (4) Houston's 75% prediction accuracy. The 211.4 line is already low, suggesting Vegas agrees this is a grind-it-out game.
Predicted Total: 208.5 (2.9 pts under Vegas)
Pick: UNDER 211.4 | Confidence: MEDIUM | Factors Used: HOU slow pace, HOU 75% UNDER trend, Jalen Williams OUT (OKC ~21 PPG), HOU 75% prediction accuracy, lowest total on the board
Third Pick
CLE @ SAC UNDER 234.1
Confidence: MEDIUM
Key Factors:
Why MEDIUM: Home B2B present (SAC) + slow pace opponent (CLE) + potential Harden absence. However, home B2B is 0/1 in our system (NOP@MIL failed), and Mobley's absence as a defensive anchor could boost scoring. B2B + slow pace opponent is the setup, but home B2B (not away B2B) is the weaker version.
Risk: Home B2B is 0/1 historically. CLE prediction accuracy is 0% (0/1). Mobley OUT as defensive anchor could increase SAC scoring. However, CLE's slow pace + SAC fatigue is a reasonable UNDER setup, and away B2B + slow pace (the stronger cousin of this pattern) is 2/2.
Predicted Total: 231.0 (3.1 pts under Vegas)
Pick: UNDER 234.1 | Confidence: MEDIUM | Factors Used: SAC home B2B, CLE slow pace, potential Harden absence (trade pending), CLE defensive identity
Game-by-Game Analysis
Game 1: Washington Wizards @ Brooklyn Nets
Vegas Total: 219.9
#### Factor Analysis:
| Factor | Finding | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| B2B Status | Neither team on B2B | Neutral |
| Pace | WAS average / BKN average | Neutral |
| Team O/U Trend | WAS: 100% over (1/1), BKN: 50% neutral (1/2) | Mixed |
| Historical Accuracy | BKN: 100% correct (1/1), WAS: no data | Thin |
| Key Injuries | Trae Young OUT (WAS), D'Angelo Russell OUT (trade), Sarr Q (WAS) | Significant |
#### Analysis:
Pick: SKIP | Reason: No B2B, Trae Young OUT without B2B anchor (unreliable for UNDER per system rules), massive WAS roster flux from trade deadline, unpredictable replacement player dynamics.
Game 2: Houston Rockets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 211.4
_(See Second Best Bet section above for full analysis)_
Pick: UNDER 211.4
Confidence: MEDIUMGame 3: Dallas Mavericks @ San Antonio SpursVegas Total: 230.1 #### Factor Analysis: | Factor | Finding | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| B2B Status | Neither team on B2B | Neutral | |
| Pace | DAL average / SAS average | Neutral | |
| Team O/U Trend | DAL: 33% over (UNDER trend), SAS: 33% over (UNDER trend) | UNDER | |
| Historical Accuracy | DAL: 67% correct (2/3), SAS: 50% correct (1/2) | Decent | |
| Key Injuries | Kyrie OUT, Lively OUT (DAL); De'Aaron Fox Q, Sochan Q (SAS) | Major |
#### Analysis:
Pick: SKIP | Reason: No B2B, injuries are long-term and priced into the line. Only team UNDER trends align (2 factors), but without B2B or pace mismatch, insufficient for a confident pick. Large spread creates blowout/garbage time risk.
Game 4: Utah Jazz @ Orlando Magic
Vegas Total: 237.3
#### Factor Analysis:
| Factor | Finding | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| B2B Status | Neither team on B2B | Neutral |
| Pace | UTA average / ORL slow (<97 poss/game) | Slight UNDER |
| Team O/U Trend | UTA: 50% neutral (1/2), ORL: 50% neutral (1/2) | Neutral |
| Historical Accuracy | UTA: 100% correct (1/1), ORL: 100% correct (1/1) | Positive |
| Key Injuries | Walker Kessler OUT (UTA), Franz Wagner OUT (ORL) | Significant |
#### Analysis:
Pick: SKIP | Reason: No B2B, Franz Wagner OUT without B2B anchor (unreliable for UNDER per system rules). Kessler OUT as defensive anchor could boost scoring. Only 1-2 factors aligned. The high 237.3 line is tempting to fade but no systematic edge exists.
Game 5: Charlotte Hornets @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: 231.4
#### Factor Analysis:
| Factor | Finding | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| B2B Status | Neither team on B2B | Neutral |
| Pace | CHA average / ATL fast (100+ poss/game) | Slight OVER |
| Team O/U Trend | CHA: 0% over (UNDER trend, 0/1), ATL: 100% over (2/2) | Conflicting |
| Historical Accuracy | CHA: 100% correct (1/1), ATL: 50% correct (1/2) | Mixed |
| Key Injuries | Coby White OUT (CHA, calf), Kuminga OUT (ATL, trade), Hield Q (ATL) | Moderate |
#### Analysis:
Pick: SKIP | Reason: No B2B, conflicting O/U trends (ATL 100% OVER vs CHA 100% UNDER). Coby White OUT reduces CHA scoring but without B2B anchor, insufficient for confident UNDER. Mixed signals without clear resolution.
Game 6: Denver Nuggets @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 232.7
#### Factor Analysis:
| Factor | Finding | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| B2B Status | Neither team on B2B | Neutral |
| Pace | DEN fast (100+ poss/game) / CHI average | Slight OVER |
| Team O/U Trend | DEN: 75% over (3/4), CHI: 67% over (2/3) | OVER lean |
| Historical Accuracy | DEN: 75% correct (3/4), CHI: 33% correct (1/3) | Mixed |
| Key Injuries | Jokic Q (ankle), Aaron Gordon OUT, Watson OUT (DEN); Giddey OUT (CHI) | Major |
#### Analysis:
Pick: SKIP | Reason: Despite both teams leaning OVER (DEN 75%, CHI 67%), Jokic is QUESTIONABLE creating huge uncertainty. If he plays, this could be an OVER candidate, but if he sits, the total drops significantly. CHI prediction accuracy is poor (33%, 1/3). No B2B. Too much uncertainty around Jokic's status to make a confident pick. Revisit if Jokic status confirmed before tip-off.
Game 7: Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Total: 221.6
#### Factor Analysis:
| Factor | Finding | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| B2B Status | Neither team on B2B | Neutral |
| Pace | GSW average / LAL average | Neutral |
| Team O/U Trend | GSW: 50% neutral (1/2), LAL: 50% neutral (1/2) | Neutral |
| Historical Accuracy | GSW: 50% correct (1/2), LAL: 100% correct (1/1) | Mixed |
| Key Injuries | Steph Curry OUT, Jimmy Butler OUT, Porzingis OUT (GSW); Luka Doncic OUT (LAL) | Massive |
#### Analysis:
Pick: SKIP | Reason: No B2B, both teams missing 30+ PPG combined (auto-SKIP trigger). GSW missing Curry + Butler + Porzingis, LAL missing Doncic. Replacement player effect at this scale is unmodelable. Vegas has already adjusted the 221.6 line for these absences.
Game 8: Philadelphia 76ers @ Phoenix Suns
Vegas Total: 223.6
#### Factor Analysis:
| Factor | Finding | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| B2B Status | Neither team on B2B | Neutral |
| Pace | PHI average / PHX average | Neutral |
| Team O/U Trend | PHI: 67% over (2/3), PHX: 67% over (2/3) | OVER lean |
| Historical Accuracy | PHI: 33% correct (1/3), PHX: 0% correct (0/3) | Very poor |
| Key Injuries | Paul George OUT (suspension), Embiid Q (PHI); Booker Q, Grayson Allen OUT (PHX) | Major |
#### Analysis:
Pick: SKIP | Reason: PHX 0% prediction accuracy (0/3), PHI 33% (1/3) — both teams are poorly predicted. Paul George OUT + Embiid Q + Booker Q creates massive injury uncertainty. No B2B. Cannot assign confidence on teams we consistently mispredict.
Game 9: Cleveland Cavaliers @ Sacramento Kings
Vegas Total: 234.1
_(See Third Pick section above for full analysis)_
Pick: UNDER 234.1 | Confidence: MEDIUM
Game 10: Memphis Grizzlies @ Portland Trail Blazers
Vegas Total: 234.9
_(See Best Bet section above for full analysis)_
Pick: UNDER 234.9 | Confidence: HIGH
Summary
Total Picks: 3 (0 OVER, 3 UNDER, 7 SKIP)
Best Bets
1. MEM @ POR UNDER 234.9 (HIGH) — Dual B2B is the strongest UNDER signal in our system (1/1 in regulation). Both teams played each other last night and run it back today. Massive injuries on both sides compound the fatigue factor. Predicted total: 231.0.
2. HOU @ OKC UNDER 211.4 (MEDIUM) — Houston's slow pace + 75% UNDER trend + Jalen Williams OUT for OKC. The 211.4 line is already the lowest on the board. Houston is one of our best-predicted teams (75%, 3/4). Predicted total: 208.5.
3. CLE @ SAC UNDER 234.1 (MEDIUM) — Sacramento on home B2B + Cleveland's slow pace identity. Potential Harden absence (trade pending) could further reduce scoring. Predicted total: 231.0.
Why So Many SKIPs (7 of 10)
Today's slate is dominated by trade deadline aftermath and injury chaos:
1. Only 3 B2B situations — MEM away B2B, POR home B2B (dual), SAC home B2B. All 3 factored into our picks 2. Multiple 0% accuracy teams — PHX (0/3), POR (0/1), MEM (0/1) appear in games. Only MEM@POR gets a pick due to dual B2B override 3. Massive injury loads — GSW@LAL and PHI@PHX both have 30+ PPG missing combined (auto-SKIP). Trade deadline has decimated several rosters 4. Trade deadline flux — WAS, ATL, DAL, CLE all have players with "Trade Pending" status creating unpredictable lineups 5. No reliable OVER setups — Despite OVER picks being 75% accurate, no game today has clean OVER factors (Fast vs Fast without injuries/0% accuracy)
Learnings Applied
Factors Used Today
| Factor | Times Used | Direction | |
|---|---|---|---|
| B2B (Dual) | 1 | UNDER (HIGH) | |
| B2B (Home) | 1 | UNDER (MEDIUM) | |
| Pace (Slow) | 2 | UNDER (HOU@OKC, CLE@SAC) | |
| Major Injury | 2 | UNDER (J.Williams, injuries both sides MEM@POR) | |
| Team O/U Trend | 10 | Filter | |
| Historical Accuracy | 10 | Filter | _Generated: 2026-02-07_ |