NBA Over/Under Predictions - February 8, 2026

Today's Picks Summary

Best Bet of the Day

IND @ TOR OVER 209.1

Confidence: MEDIUM

Key Factors:

• Indiana 100% OVER trend (3/3) — the strongest OVER signal in our tracked
data. Every IND game we've tracked has gone OVER the total. Pacers are a fast-pace team (100+ poss/game) that creates high-scoring environments
• Toronto 100% OVER trend (1/1) — small sample but directional. TOR's only
tracked game went OVER
• Both teams >60% OVER rate — per updated guidelines, "Both teams with >60%
OVER rate + no B2B → OVER lean." This is an auto-OVER trigger
• Indiana fast pace (100+ poss/game) — IND is one of the fastest teams in
the league. Fast pace pushes possessions and scoring opportunities up even against average-pace opponents
• OVER picks are 75% accurate (3/4) — our system significantly outperforms
on OVER picks vs UNDER (45%). This is exactly the type of pick we should prioritize per the Feb 7 rule adjustments
• Injuries are priced in — Haliburton (IND, Achilles tear) is season-ending,
fully reflected in the line. Zubac OUT (not with team, likely traded). Chris Paul OUT (TOR, not with team). Poeltl OUT (reconditioning). All long-term absences, not fresh news
• Vegas deviation: 1.9 pts — within the optimal 0-2 pt range (75% accuracy
at this deviation)

Why MEDIUM (not HIGH): No B2B situation present. Per guidelines, HIGH requires B2B as primary factor for UNDER picks. For OVER picks, HIGH would require Fast vs Fast pace matchup — TOR is average pace, not fast. Also TOR has only 1 tracked game (small sample). IND prediction accuracy is 50% (1/2) — not strong enough for HIGH.

Why not SKIP: 3+ factors align for OVER: (1) IND 100% OVER trend (3/3), (2) TOR 100% OVER trend (1/1), (3) IND fast pace. OVER picks outperform UNDER by 30% in our system. The 209.1 total is low, and both teams' OVER tendencies suggest the market may be slightly conservative.

Risk: The 209.1 total is the lowest on the board. TOR sample size is only 1 game. Trade deadline roster turnover (Zubac, Chris Paul, Poeltl departures) creates some unpredictability with new lineups. IND prediction accuracy is only 50% (1/2).

Predicted Total: 211.0 (1.9 pts over Vegas)

Pick: OVER 209.1 | Confidence: MEDIUM | Factors Used: IND 100% OVER trend (3/3), TOR 100% OVER trend (1/1), IND fast pace, both teams >60% OVER rate trigger, OVER picks 75% system accuracy

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Game-by-Game Analysis

Game 1: Miami Heat @ Washington Wizards

Vegas Total: 230.3

Spread: MIA -30.2 #### Factor Analysis:	Factor	Finding	Impact
B2B Status	WAS home B2B (played at BKN yesterday)	AUTO-SKIP
Pace	MIA slow (<97 poss/game) / WAS average	Slight UNDER
Team O/U Trend	MIA: 50% neutral (2/2), WAS: 100% over (1/1)	Mixed
Historical Accuracy	MIA: 50% correct (2/4), WAS: no data	Thin
Key Injuries	Herro OUT, Rozier OUT (MIA); Trae Young OUT, A. Davis OUT (WAS)	Massive

#### Analysis:

• WAS is on HOME B2B (played at Brooklyn yesterday, home today) →
AUTO-SKIP per v1.3 guidelines. Home B2B is 0/2 in our system with an average miss of +28.7 pts. This is our strongest auto-skip trigger
• Combined missing PPG exceeds 30+ — Tyler Herro OUT (~24 PPG, rib injury),
Terry Rozier OUT (~16 PPG, not with team) for MIA. Trae Young OUT (~26 PPG, MCL sprain + quad contusion), Anthony Davis OUT (~25 PPG, finger sprain), D'Angelo Russell OUT (not with team), Jaden Hardy OUT (rest) for WAS. This triggers the second auto-SKIP rule for 30+ combined PPG missing
• The 30.2 point spread is historically massive — indicates a complete talent
mismatch. WAS is fielding a depleted roster
• MIA still has Adebayo (Available), Powell (Available), Wiggins (Available),
Jaquez Jr. (Available) — enough talent to dominate
• Two separate AUTO-SKIP triggers activated: (1) Home B2B, (2) 30+ PPG missing

Pick: SKIP | Reason: WAS home B2B (AUTO-SKIP, 0/2 avg miss +28.7 pts) AND 30+ combined PPG missing (AUTO-SKIP). Two auto-skip triggers. WAS roster is decimated (Young, Davis, Russell, Hardy all OUT). Replacement player dynamics at this scale are completely unmodelable. Vegas has set the 230.3 line but massive spread indicates extreme uncertainty.

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Game 2: Indiana Pacers @ Toronto Raptors

Vegas Total: 209.1

Spread: TOR -6 _(See Best Bet section above for full analysis)_ Pick: OVER 209.1	Confidence: MEDIUM Game 3: Los Angeles Clippers @ Minnesota Timberwolves Vegas Total: 213.8	Spread: LAC -3.3 #### Factor Analysis:	Factor	Finding	Impact
B2B Status	Neither team on B2B	Neutral
Pace	LAC average / MIN average	Neutral
Team O/U Trend	LAC: 50% neutral (2/4), MIN: 100% over (2/2)	Mixed
Historical Accuracy	LAC: 0% correct (0/3), MIN: 0% correct (0/1)	Very poor
Key Injuries	Beal OUT, Garland OUT, Jackson OUT, Mathurin OUT (LAC)	Massive

#### Analysis:

• No B2B for either team — primary edge finder absent
• LA Clippers have 0% prediction accuracy (0/3) — worst in the system. Per
rules: "Never assign HIGH confidence on teams with 0% prediction accuracy." This is a massive red flag for ANY pick involving LAC
• Minnesota also 0% accuracy (0/1) — tiny sample but negative
• LAC is devastated by injuries/trades: Bradley Beal OUT (hip fracture),
Darius Garland OUT (toe sprain), Isaiah Jackson OUT (trade pending), Bennedict Mathurin OUT (trade pending). LAC is missing ~45+ PPG across their top players
• MIN OVER trend (100%, 2/2) leans OVER, but LAC neutral (50%) provides no
directional signal
• Average vs Average pace — no pace mismatch to exploit
• The 213.8 total is already low, reflecting LAC's depleted state
• Only 1 factor (MIN OVER trend) supports a direction. Per guidelines, <2
factors aligned = SKIP
• LAC 0% accuracy makes any pick unreliable

Pick: SKIP | Reason: LAC 0% prediction accuracy (0/3) — worst in system. MIN also 0% (0/1). LAC missing ~45+ PPG (Beal + Garland + trade pending players). No B2B, neutral pace matchup. Only 1 factor (MIN OVER trend) supports a direction — insufficient for confident pick. Cannot pick games involving 0% accuracy teams with confidence.

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Summary

Total Picks: 1 (1 OVER, 0 UNDER, 2 SKIP)

Best Bet

1. IND @ TOR OVER 209.1 (MEDIUM) — Both teams have 100% OVER trends (IND 3/3, TOR 1/1). Indiana is a fast-pace team. OVER picks are 75% accurate in our system vs UNDER at 45%. Staying within 1.9 pts of Vegas (optimal 0-2 pt range). Predicted total: 211.0.

Why So Many SKIPs (2 of 3)

Today is a light 3-game Sunday slate with limited edges:

1. MIA@WAS has double auto-SKIP — WAS home B2B (0/2 in system) AND 30+ combined PPG missing. The most clear-cut SKIP possible 2. LAC@MIN involves two 0% accuracy teams — LAC (0/3) and MIN (0/1) are teams we consistently mispredict. No B2B, neutral pace, only 1 factor 3. Only IND@TOR has clean factors — Both teams OVER trends + IND fast pace creates a rare OVER setup that aligns with our system's strength (75% OVER accuracy)

Learnings Applied

• Home B2B = AUTO-SKIP — Applied to MIA@WAS (WAS home B2B). Our 0/2 record
with +28.7 avg miss makes this the clearest SKIP rule in the system
• Prioritize OVER picks — Our first prediction prioritizing OVER setups
after the Feb 7 rule overhaul. OVER picks at 75% (3/4) vs UNDER at 45% (13/29). IND@TOR is exactly the type of OVER setup we should be targeting
• 0% accuracy teams = no confidence — Applied to LAC@MIN (LAC 0/3, MIN 0/1)
• Stay close to Vegas — IND@TOR deviation is 1.9 pts (0-2 pt range = 75%
accuracy). Not trying to be heroes
• Quality over quantity — 1 supported pick with clean edge beats forcing