NBA Over/Under Analysis - 2026-02-09
Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total Picks | 0 |
| Correct | 0 |
| Accuracy | N/A (all SKIPs) |
| Skipped | 10 |
| Slate | 5 OVER / 5 UNDER (50/50 split) |
All 10 games were SKIPPED. This is the first all-SKIP day in system history. No picks = no accuracy to grade, but we can still evaluate whether the SKIPs were justified by analyzing actual outcomes.
Actual Results vs Vegas
| Game | Vegas | Actual | O/U | Margin | Skip Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET @ CHA | 223.1 | 214 | UNDER | -9.1 | Conflicting trends |
| CHI @ BKN | 221.8 | 238 | OVER | +16.2 | <2 factors |
| UTA @ MIA | 240.9 | 226 | UNDER | -14.9 | MIA home B2B (AUTO-SKIP) |
| MIL @ ORL | 218.4 | 217 | UNDER | -1.4 | Star OUT no B2B |
| ATL @ MIN | 238.3 | 254 | OVER | +15.7 | MIN home B2B (AUTO-SKIP) |
| SAC @ NOP | 231.3 | 214 | UNDER | -17.3 | 30+ PPG missing |
| CLE @ DEN | 237.7 | 236 | UNDER | -1.7 | 30+ PPG missing |
| MEM @ GSW | 223.3 | 227 | OVER | +3.7 | 30+ PPG missing |
| OKC @ LAL | 222.9 | 229 | OVER | +6.1 | Only 2 factors |
| PHI @ POR | 230.3 | 253 | OVER | +22.7 | 30+ PPG missing |
Average absolute margin from Vegas: 10.9 pts — extremely volatile slate.
Were the SKIPs Justified?
Verdict: YES - SKIPs were correct
The 5/5 OVER/UNDER split with an average absolute margin of 10.9 pts confirms this was a highly unpredictable slate. Key validation points:
Home B2B AUTO-SKIP (2 games)
- UTA @ MIA (MIA home B2B): UNDER -14.9. First home B2B to go UNDER in system history. Breaks the all-OVER pattern
- ATL @ MIN (MIN home B2B): OVER +15.7. Continues the OVER pattern
- SAC@NOP: UNDER -17.3 (would have been WRONG if we picked OVER)
- CLE@DEN: UNDER -1.7 (would have been WRONG if we picked OVER)
- PHI@POR: OVER +22.7 (would have been RIGHT)
- DET @ CHA (UNDER -9.1): Conflicting trends. DET's 100% OVER trend BROKE — further confirms small-sample trends (2 games) are unreliable
- MIL @ ORL (UNDER -1.4): Near push. Giannis OUT + low total. Essentially a coin flip
- OKC @ LAL (OVER +6.1): Only 2 factors (OKC OVER trend + fast pace). Went OVER. OKC's OVER trend is now 4/5 (80%) — becoming a reliable OVER team. Near-miss for a potential pick, but the system correctly identified insufficient conviction
- DET was 100% OVER (2/2) → went UNDER at CHA (-9.1)
- NOP was 100% OVER (2/2) → went UNDER vs SAC (-17.3)
- Overall Accuracy: 50% (17/34) — unchanged (no picks today)
- OVER: 80% (4/5) — unchanged
- UNDER: 45% (13/29) — unchanged
- Last 5 Days: 50%, 100%, 0%, 100%, N/A
- OKC OVER strength: Now 4/5 (80%). If this continues, OKC alone having > 75% OVER rate + fast pace could be sufficient for OVER picks without needing > both teams >60% OVER rate. Need 2+ more data points.
- MEM OVER strength: Now 4/4 (100%). Matching IND as system's most reliable
Home B2B is now 4 OVER / 1 UNDER out of 5 tracked (80% OVER). But the margins are wild: +33.4, +23.9, +2.7, -14.9, +15.7. Average absolute margin = 18.1 pts. AUTO-SKIP remains 100% correct — cannot reliably predict direction.
30+ PPG Missing AUTO-SKIP (4 games)
| Game | PPG Missing | Result | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAC @ NOP | 53+ (SAC) | UNDER -17.3 | SAC scored only 94. Collapse. |
| CLE @ DEN | 44+ | UNDER -1.7 | Near push. Barely UNDER. |
| MEM @ GSW | 60+ | OVER +3.7 | Replacement player effect. |
| PHI @ POR | 60+ | OVER +22.7 | Massive replacement effect. |
Results: 2 OVER, 2 UNDER — perfectly split, confirms unmodelable. Average absolute margin = 11.4 pts. AUTO-SKIP validated.
Auto-OVER Trigger Overridden by Injuries (3 games)
SAC@NOP, CLE@DEN, and PHI@POR all had both teams >60% OVER rate, triggering the auto-OVER. But 30+ PPG missing AUTO-SKIP overrode each:
1 right / 2 wrong = 33% — the override was correct. Picking OVER on all 3 would have been a losing strategy.
Other SKIPs
Key Takeaways & Learnings
1. Home B2B Pattern Updated
Home B2B is no longer 100% OVER — UTA@MIA went UNDER. Updated record:
| Game | Date | Result | Margin | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOP @ MIL | Feb 3 | OVER | +33.4 | |||||
| CLE @ SAC | Feb 7 | OVER | +23.9 | |||||
| MIA @ WAS | Feb 8 | OVER | +2.7 | |||||
| UTA @ MIA | Feb 9 | UNDER | -14.9 | |||||
| ATL @ MIN | Feb 9 | OVER | +15.7 | Record: 4/5 OVER (80%). AUTO-SKIP still correct — volatility is extreme. 2. Emerging Reliable OVER Teams (4+ games) | Team | Games | OVER Rate | Trend |
| ---- | ----- | --------- | ----- | |||||
| IND | 4 | 100% | OVER | |||||
| MEM | 4 | 100% | OVER | |||||
| OKC | 5 | 80% | OVER | |||||
| CHI | 4 | 75% | OVER | |||||
| PHI | 4 | 75% | OVER |
MEM joins IND as 100% OVER with 4+ games. OKC at 80% (4/5) is also very strong. These are the most reliable OVER teams for future picks.
3. Small-Sample Trend Failures Continue
Per Feb 8 lesson: trends with <3 games are unreliable. Today adds 2 more confirming examples.
4. 30+ PPG Missing Is Truly Unmodelable
4 games with 30+ PPG missing went 2 OVER / 2 UNDER, with margins ranging from -17.3 to +22.7. The replacement player effect works both ways and cannot be predicted. AUTO-SKIP is the only correct approach.
5. Potential Rule Update: OKC OVER Strength
OKC is now 4/5 OVER (80%) with 5 games tracked. When OKC's OVER trend aligns with other factors (fast pace), this could support a future OVER pick even without both teams having >60% OVER rate. Monitor.
Team O/U Rate Changes (Feb 9)
| Team | Before | After | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 100% (2/2) | 67% (2/3) | OVER trend broke |
| CHA | 0% (0/1) | 0% (0/2) | UNDER confirmed |
| CHI | 67% (2/3) | 75% (3/4) | Strengthened |
| BKN | 50% (1/2) | 67% (2/3) | Now OVER lean |
| MIA | 50% (2/4) | 40% (2/5) | Now UNDER lean |
| UTA | 50% (1/2) | 33% (1/3) | Now UNDER lean |
| MIL | 67% (2/3) | 50% (2/4) | Neutralized |
| ORL | 50% (1/2) | 33% (1/3) | Now UNDER lean |
| ATL | 100% (2/2) | 100% (3/3) | OVER strong |
| MIN | 100% (2/2) | 100% (3/3) | OVER strong |
| SAC | 67% (2/3) | 50% (2/4) | Neutralized |
| NOP | 100% (2/2) | 67% (2/3) | OVER trend broke |
| CLE | 67% (2/3) | 50% (2/4) | Neutralized |
| DEN | 75% (3/4) | 60% (3/5) | Weakened |
| MEM | 100% (3/3) | 100% (4/4) | OVER very strong |
| GSW | 50% (1/2) | 67% (2/3) | Now OVER lean |
| OKC | 75% (3/4) | 80% (4/5) | OVER very strong |
| LAL | 50% (1/2) | 67% (2/3) | Now OVER lean |
| PHI | 67% (2/3) | 75% (3/4) | Strengthened |
| POR | 100% (2/2) | 100% (3/3) | OVER strong |
Cumulative Stats
Rule Adjustments
No rule changes needed. All AUTO-SKIP triggers validated:
1. Home B2B AUTO-SKIP: Confirmed. 4/5 OVER but UTA@MIA broke the streak. Cannot predict direction. 2. 30+ PPG missing AUTO-SKIP: Confirmed. 2/4 OVER, 2/4 UNDER. Unmodelable. 3. Auto-OVER override by injury AUTO-SKIP: Confirmed. Would have gone 1/3 (33%) picking OVER. 4. Small-sample trend unreliability: Confirmed. 2 more failures (DET, NOP) with 2-game samples.
Potential Future Adjustment
_Generated: 2026-02-10_ | _System Version: O/U Predictor v1.4_