NBA Over/Under Predictions - February 9, 2026

Today's Picks Summary

Best Bet of the Day

No picks today. Despite a 10-game Sunday slate, every game has at least one AUTO-SKIP trigger or insufficient factors for a confident pick. Quality over quantity — 0 supported picks beats forcing action on uncertain games.

Game-by-Game Analysis

Game 1: Detroit Pistons @ Charlotte Hornets

Vegas Total: 223.1

#### Analysis:

• Conflicting team O/U trends — DET is 100% OVER (2/2) but CHA is 0% OVER
(0/1). These trends directly conflict
• Both samples are small (DET 2 games, CHA 1 game). Per Feb 8 lesson:
small-sample trends (1-2 games) are less reliable than 4+ game samples
• No B2B, neutral pace — no primary edge factors present
• Coby White OUT (~18 PPG) for CHA is a key scorer absence but long-term and
fully priced into the 223.1 line
• Only 1 factor leans any direction (DET OVER trend), offset by CHA UNDER trend
→ conflicting signals = SKIP

Pick: SKIP | Reason: Conflicting O/U trends (DET 100% OVER vs CHA 0% OVER). Both are small samples. No B2B, neutral pace. Insufficient edge.

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Game 2: Chicago Bulls @ Brooklyn Nets

Vegas Total: 221.8

Spread: CHI -3.6 #### Factor Analysis:	Factor	Finding	Impact
B2B Status	Neither team on B2B	Neutral
Pace	CHI average / BKN average	Neutral
Team O/U Trend	CHI: 67% OVER (2/3), BKN: 50% neutral (1/2)	Weak
Historical Accuracy	CHI: 33% (1/3), BKN: 100% (1/1)	Mixed
Key Injuries	Giddey DOUBTFUL (CHI, ~13 PPG), MPJ OUT (BKN, ~16 PPG)	Moderate

#### Analysis:

• No B2B, neutral pace — no primary edge factors
• CHI 67% OVER rate leans OVER, but BKN is neutral (50%). Only 1 directional
factor
• CHI 33% prediction accuracy (1/3) — poor. System consistently mispredicts
CHI games
• Both Giddey (DOUBTFUL, ~13 PPG) and Michael Porter Jr. (OUT, ~16 PPG) combine
for ~29 PPG missing, but both are well-known absences → priced in
• Per guidelines: <2 factors aligned = SKIP

Pick: SKIP | Reason: No B2B, neutral pace. CHI 33% prediction accuracy. Only 1 factor (CHI 67% OVER trend) leans a direction — insufficient for a confident pick.

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Game 3: Utah Jazz @ Miami Heat

Vegas Total: 240.9

Spread: MIA -7.7 #### Factor Analysis:	Factor	Finding	Impact
B2B Status	MIA HOME B2B (played at WAS yesterday)	AUTO-SKIP
Pace	UTA average / MIA slow (<97)	Slight UNDER
Team O/U Trend	UTA: 50% neutral (1/2), MIA: 50% neutral (2/4)	Neutral
Historical Accuracy	UTA: 100% (1/1), MIA: 50% (2/4)	Mixed
Key Injuries	Keyonte George OUT (UTA, ~17 PPG), Kessler OUT (UTA)	Moderate

#### Analysis:

• MIA is on HOME B2B (played at Washington yesterday, home today) →
AUTO-SKIP per v1.4 guidelines. Home B2B is 0/2 in our pick system with an average miss of +28.7 pts. All 3 home B2B games in our tracking went OVER. This is our strongest auto-skip trigger
• MIA played a blowout yesterday (132-101 at WAS) — potential rest for starters,
but fatigue still a factor on B2B
• 240.9 is the highest total on the board today — suggests Vegas expects a
high-scoring game regardless of B2B
• Keyonte George OUT (~17 PPG) and Walker Kessler OUT for UTA, both long-term
absences → priced in

Pick: SKIP | Reason: MIA home B2B (AUTO-SKIP, 0/2 avg miss +28.7 pts). Home B2B is our strongest auto-skip trigger. All 3 home B2B games in the system went OVER, but the pattern is too volatile to pick (+28.7 avg miss = massive unpredictability).

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Game 4: Milwaukee Bucks @ Orlando Magic

Vegas Total: 218.4

Spread: ORL -10.6 #### Factor Analysis:	Factor	Finding	Impact
B2B Status	Neither team on B2B	Neutral
Pace	MIL average / ORL slow (<97)	Slight UNDER
Team O/U Trend	MIL: 67% OVER (2/3), ORL: 50% neutral (1/2)	Weak OVER
Historical Accuracy	MIL: 33% (1/3), ORL: 100% (1/1)	Mixed
Key Injuries	Giannis OUT (MIL, ~31 PPG, calf strain)	Massive

#### Analysis:

• Giannis OUT (~31 PPG) — season-defining absence, but long-term injury
(calf strain) fully priced into the 218.4 line. The 10.6 spread reflects MIL as heavy underdogs without him
• 218.4 is among the lowest totals on the board — per guidelines, "Vegas
already set the lowest total on the board = factors already priced in" (AUTO-SKIP trigger from Feb 7 lesson, HOU@OKC 211.4 still went OVER)
• ORL slow pace + Giannis OUT suggests UNDER, but replacement player effect is
real (MIL scored 131 without Giannis on Feb 3). Star absence without B2B is unreliable for UNDER picks (0/2 on Feb 3)
• MIL 33% prediction accuracy (1/3) — poor
• No B2B anchor → cannot reliably predict direction
• AUTO-SKIP: star absence without B2B per guidelines

Pick: SKIP | Reason: Giannis OUT (~31 PPG) but no B2B anchor. Star absence without B2B is AUTO-SKIP (0/2 on Feb 3). 218.4 is lowest-tier total (priced in). MIL 33% prediction accuracy. Replacement player effect unpredictable.

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Game 5: Atlanta Hawks @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Vegas Total: 238.3

Spread: MIN -6.5 #### Factor Analysis:	Factor	Finding	Impact
B2B Status	MIN HOME B2B (played LAC yesterday)	AUTO-SKIP
Pace	ATL fast (100+) / MIN average	Mixed
Team O/U Trend	ATL: 100% OVER (2/2), MIN: 100% OVER (2/2)	Strong OVER
Historical Accuracy	ATL: 50% (1/2), MIN: 0% (0/1)	Poor for MIN
Key Injuries	Kuminga OUT (ATL, ~16 PPG, bone bruise)	Moderate

#### Analysis:

• MIN is on HOME B2B (played LAC yesterday, home today) → **AUTO-SKIP per
v1.4 guidelines.** Home B2B is 0/2 with +28.7 avg miss, all 3 tracked home B2B games went OVER
• This is a tempting game: ATL 100% OVER (2/2) + MIN 100% OVER (2/2) + ATL fast
pace — multiple OVER factors aligned. The auto-OVER trigger (both teams >60% OVER rate) fires here
• However, MIN home B2B AUTO-SKIP overrides. The home B2B pattern has been
catastrophic (NOP@MIL +33.4, CLE@SAC +23.9, MIA@WAS +2.7). While these all went OVER, the volatility makes any directional pick unreliable
• MIN 0% prediction accuracy (0/1) is a small but negative data point
• MIN's 100% OVER trend is only 2 games — per Feb 8 lesson, small-sample trends
are less reliable (MIN's OVER trend broke vs LAC on Feb 8)

Pick: SKIP | Reason: MIN home B2B (AUTO-SKIP, 0/2 avg miss +28.7 pts). Despite both teams having 100% OVER trends and ATL fast pace (strong OVER setup), home B2B AUTO-SKIP overrides. MIN's OVER trend also broke on Feb 8 (LAC@MIN went UNDER). Cannot override AUTO-SKIP.

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Game 6: Sacramento Kings @ New Orleans Pelicans

Vegas Total: 231.3

Spread: NOP -7.7 #### Factor Analysis:	Factor	Finding	Impact
B2B Status	Neither team on B2B	Neutral
Pace	SAC fast (100+) / NOP average	Mixed
Team O/U Trend	SAC: 67% OVER (2/3), NOP: 100% OVER (2/2)	OVER
Historical Accuracy	SAC: 50% (1/2), NOP: 0% (0/2)	Poor for NOP
Key Injuries	SAC: LaVine OUT (~24), Murray OUT (~14), Monk OUT (~15), Sabonis Q	Massive

#### Analysis:

• Sacramento is decimated by injuries: Zach LaVine OUT (~24 PPG, soreness),
Keegan Murray OUT (~14 PPG, ankle), Malik Monk OUT (~15 PPG, illness), Domantas Sabonis QUESTIONABLE (inflammation), De'Andre Hunter OUT. Combined confirmed OUT PPG: ~53+ from LaVine + Murray + Monk alone
• AUTO-SKIP: 30+ combined PPG missing — SAC alone has 53+ PPG out.
Replacement player dynamics at this scale are completely unmodelable
• NOP 0% prediction accuracy (0/2) — system consistently mispredicts NOP games
• NOP also missing Dejounte Murray (Achilles rupture, season-ending) → priced in
• Both teams >60% OVER rate would normally trigger auto-OVER, but the 30+ PPG
AUTO-SKIP overrides
• The 7.7 spread reflects SAC's depleted state

Pick: SKIP | Reason: SAC missing 53+ combined PPG (LaVine, Murray, Monk all OUT, Sabonis QUESTIONABLE) — AUTO-SKIP for 30+ PPG missing. NOP 0% prediction accuracy (0/2). Replacement player dynamics unmodelable at this scale.

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Game 7: Cleveland Cavaliers @ Denver Nuggets

Vegas Total: 237.7

Spread: CLE -0.2 #### Factor Analysis:	Factor	Finding	Impact
B2B Status	Neither team on B2B	Neutral
Pace	CLE slow (<97) / DEN fast (100+)	Mixed
Team O/U Trend	CLE: 67% OVER (2/3), DEN: 75% OVER (3/4)	OVER
Historical Accuracy	CLE: 0% (0/2), DEN: 75% (3/4)	Split
Key Injuries	CLE: Mobley OUT (~18), Strus OUT (~12). DEN: Gordon OUT (~14), Murray Q (~21)	Massive

#### Analysis:

• Both teams >60% OVER rate (CLE 67%, DEN 75%) + no B2B → **auto-OVER trigger
fires**
• BUT: 30+ combined PPG missing AUTO-SKIP overrides. CLE has Mobley OUT (~18
PPG) + Strus OUT (~12 PPG). DEN has Gordon OUT (~14 PPG) + Murray QUESTIONABLE (~21 PPG). Confirmed OUTs alone = ~44 PPG. If Murray sits, it's ~65 PPG combined
• CLE 0% prediction accuracy (0/2) — system has never correctly predicted a
CLE game. Per rules: "Never assign HIGH confidence on teams with 0% prediction accuracy"
• CLE slow pace vs DEN fast pace = mixed (pace typically splits)
• DEN 75% accuracy (3/4) is strong, but CLE's 0% drags this down
• Near pick-em game (0.2 spread) suggests tight matchup

Pick: SKIP | Reason: 30+ combined PPG missing (Mobley + Strus + Gordon = ~44 PPG confirmed OUT, Murray QUESTIONABLE). AUTO-SKIP overrides the auto-OVER trigger (both teams >60% OVER rate). CLE 0% prediction accuracy (0/2) adds another red flag.

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Game 8: Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors

Vegas Total: 223.3

Spread: GSW -6.7 #### Factor Analysis:	Factor	Finding	Impact
B2B Status	Neither team on B2B	Neutral
Pace	MEM average / GSW average	Neutral
Team O/U Trend	MEM: 100% OVER (3/3), GSW: 50% neutral (1/2)	Mixed
Historical Accuracy	MEM: 0% (0/2), GSW: 50% (1/2)	Poor for MEM
Key Injuries	MEM: Ja Morant OUT (~25), Edey OUT, Aldama OUT, Clarke OUT. GSW: Steph Curry OUT (~26), Butler OUT (ACL), Porzingis OUT	Catastrophic

#### Analysis:

• Catastrophic injury situation for both teams. MEM is missing Ja Morant
(~25 PPG, UCL sprain), Zach Edey, Santi Aldama, Brandon Clarke. GSW is missing Stephen Curry (~26 PPG, pain syndrome), Jimmy Butler (ACL tear), Kristaps Porzingis, Seth Curry. Combined missing PPG easily exceeds 60+
• AUTO-SKIP: 30+ combined PPG missing — this is the most depleted game on
the board. Both rosters are shells of themselves
• MEM 0% prediction accuracy (0/2) — worst in system for games tracked
• MEM's 100% OVER trend (3/3) is interesting but 0% prediction accuracy means we
consistently get MEM games wrong
• 223.3 is also a lower total on the board → priced in

Pick: SKIP | Reason: Catastrophic injuries both sides — 60+ combined PPG missing (Morant, Curry, Butler, Porzingis, Edey, etc.). AUTO-SKIP for 30+ PPG. MEM 0% prediction accuracy (0/2). Completely unmodelable replacement player dynamics.

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Game 9: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers

Vegas Total: 222.9

Spread: OKC -6.7 #### Factor Analysis:	Factor	Finding	Impact
B2B Status	Neither team on B2B	Neutral
Pace	OKC fast (100+) / LAL average	Mixed
Team O/U Trend	OKC: 75% OVER (3/4), LAL: 50% neutral (1/2)	Weak OVER
Historical Accuracy	OKC: 50% (1/2), LAL: 100% (1/1)	Limited
Key Injuries	LAL: Luka Doncic OUT (~28 PPG, hamstring)	Massive but priced in

#### Analysis:

• OKC 75% OVER rate (3/4) + OKC fast pace → 2 factors lean OVER
• But LAL is neutral (50%, 1/2) — no directional support from LAL side.
Auto-OVER trigger requires BOTH teams >60% OVER rate; LAL at 50% does not qualify
• Luka Doncic OUT (~28 PPG) is a massive scoring absence but long-term
(hamstring strain) → fully priced into the 222.9 line. The 6.7 spread reflects LAL as significant underdogs without him
• OKC 50% prediction accuracy (1/2) is a coin flip — limited data
• Only 2 factors aligned (OKC OVER trend + OKC fast pace). Per guidelines: 2
factors = LOW confidence at best, with some conflicting signals
• LAL's 1-game sample (100%, 1/1) is too small to be meaningful
• Not enough conviction for a pick. The OVER setup isn't strong enough without
both teams leaning OVER

Pick: SKIP | Reason: Only 2 factors aligned (OKC 75% OVER trend + OKC fast pace). LAL neutral at 50% — auto-OVER trigger does not fire. Luka OUT (~28 PPG) priced in. OKC 50% prediction accuracy. Insufficient edge for a confident pick.

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Game 10: Philadelphia 76ers @ Portland Trail Blazers

Vegas Total: 230.3

Spread: PHI -3.9 #### Factor Analysis:	Factor	Finding	Impact
B2B Status	Neither team on B2B	Neutral
Pace	PHI average / POR average	Neutral
Team O/U Trend	PHI: 67% OVER (2/3), POR: 100% OVER (2/2)	OVER
Historical Accuracy	PHI: 33% (1/3), POR: 0% (0/2)	Very poor
Key Injuries	POR: Lillard OUT (~27), Sharpe OUT (~16), K. Murray OUT. PHI: Paul George OUT (suspension), Embiid Q	Massive

#### Analysis:

• Both teams >60% OVER rate (PHI 67%, POR 100%) + no B2B → auto-OVER trigger
fires
• BUT: 30+ combined PPG missing AUTO-SKIP overrides. POR is missing Damian
Lillard (~27 PPG, injury management), Shaedon Sharpe (~16 PPG, calf), Kris Murray (lumbar). PHI has Paul George OUT (league suspension) and Embiid QUESTIONABLE. Combined confirmed OUT PPG: ~60+ easily
• POR 0% prediction accuracy (0/2) — system has never correctly predicted a
POR game
• PHI 33% accuracy (1/3) also poor
• POR's 100% OVER trend (2/2) is only 2 games — small sample per Feb 8 lesson
• PHX@POR scored 255 previously with depleted rosters, but that's the
replacement player effect — unpredictable in both directions

Pick: SKIP | Reason: 30+ combined PPG missing (Lillard ~27, Sharpe ~16, Paul George OUT, Embiid Q) — AUTO-SKIP. POR 0% prediction accuracy (0/2). PHI 33% (1/3). Auto-OVER trigger overridden by massive injury AUTO-SKIP.

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Summary

Total Picks: 0 (0 OVER, 0 UNDER, 10 SKIP)

Why All SKIPs (10 of 10)

Today's 10-game slate is the most SKIP-heavy day in system history. Every game has at least one AUTO-SKIP trigger:

Game	Primary Skip Reason
DET @ CHA	Conflicting O/U trends, <2 factors
CHI @ BKN	<2 factors, CHI 33% accuracy
UTA @ MIA	MIA home B2B (AUTO-SKIP)
MIL @ ORL	Star OUT no B2B + lowest total priced in
ATL @ MIN	MIN home B2B (AUTO-SKIP)
SAC @ NOP	30+ PPG missing (53+ from SAC alone)
CLE @ DEN	30+ PPG missing (44+ confirmed)
MEM @ GSW	30+ PPG missing (60+ catastrophic)
OKC @ LAL	Only 2 factors, auto-OVER trigger fails
PHI @ POR	30+ PPG missing (60+), POR 0% accuracy

Key Observations

1. Injury-ravaged slate — 6 of 10 games have 30+ combined PPG missing. Mid-season injuries, trades, and rest decisions have decimated rosters across the league 2. Two home B2Bs — MIA and MIN both on home B2B, triggering our strongest AUTO-SKIP rule (0/2, +28.7 avg miss historically) 3. Auto-OVER triggers fire but get overridden — CLE@DEN, PHI@POR, and SAC@NOP all have both teams >60% OVER rate, but 30+ PPG missing AUTO-SKIP overrides in each case 4. Discipline preserved — After yesterday's 1/1 (100%) day, it would be tempting to force picks. But the system says no edge = no bet. The OVER-prioritization strategy works when there ARE clean OVER setups; today there are none

Learnings Applied

• Home B2B = AUTO-SKIP — Applied to UTA@MIA and ATL@MIN. 0/2 in pick system
with +28.7 avg miss
• 30+ PPG missing = AUTO-SKIP — Applied to SAC@NOP, CLE@DEN, MEM@GSW,
PHI@POR. Replacement player effect is unmodelable
• Star OUT no B2B = AUTO-SKIP — Applied to MIL@ORL (Giannis ~31 PPG)
• Quality over quantity — 0 picks is better than 3-4 forced picks in a
hostile environment
• OVER-prioritization strategy — Still the right approach, but today has no