NBA Over/Under Analysis - 2026-02-10

Summary

Game Totals

Metric	Value
Total Picks	0
Correct	0
Accuracy	N/A
Skipped	4	Team Totals	Metric	Value
-----------	-----
Total Picks	1
Correct	1
Accuracy	100%	Actual Game Results	Game	Vegas Total	Actual Total	Result	Margin
---------	-----------	------------	------	------
IND @ NYK	224.6	271	OVER	+46.4
LAC @ HOU	210.2	197	UNDER	-13.2
DAL @ PHX	228.5	231	OVER	+2.5
SAS @ LAL	228.3	244	OVER	+15.7	Slate: 3 OVER, 1 UNDER. Average absolute margin: 19.5 pts. Team Total Results	Team	Opponent	Implied	Actual	Pick	Result	Diff
----	--------	-------	------	----	-----------	----
DAL	@ PHX	110.2	111	OVER	OVER (+0.8)	+0.8	Correct Team Total Picks (1) DAL OVER 110.2 -> Scored 111 (+0.8)

MEDIUM confidence - Razor-thin margin (+0.8 pts) but the pick was correct - DAL team total OVER rate now 4/5 (80%), avg diff +4.2 - Irving absence continues to be baked into the line correctly - Klay Thompson status was uncertain but DAL still exceeded implied

SKIP Decision Analysis

IND @ NYK: SKIP (30+ PPG missing) -> OVER +46.4

Result: 271 total (IND 137, NYK 134). Went OVER by a massive +46.4 pts

Auto-SKIP reason: Haliburton (~22 PPG) + Toppin (~10 PPG) = ~32 PPG

missing

Assessment: SKIP CORRECT - While the game went OVER, the +46.4 margin is

completely unmodelable. No system could predict this magnitude.

IND trend: Now 6/6 OVER (100%) in game O/U. The strongest OVER team in the

system. Haliburton has been out for all tracked games, so IND's OVER trend is established WITHOUT him. The 30+ PPG auto-SKIP may be overly conservative for IND specifically (priced-in long-term absence).

Question for future: Should IND get an exception to the 30+ PPG auto-SKIP

since their OVER trend was built during Haliburton's absence?

LAC @ HOU: SKIP (lowest total + LAC 0% accuracy) -> UNDER -13.2

Result: 197 total (LAC 95, HOU 102). Went UNDER by -13.2 pts

Auto-SKIP reasons: Lowest total on board (210.2), LAC 0% system accuracy

Assessment: SKIP CORRECT - Defense/pace was indeed fully priced in. Both

UNDER-leaning teams (LAC now 40%, HOU now 33%). Correctly avoided this trap.

DAL @ PHX: SKIP (conflicting trends + PHX 0% accuracy) -> OVER +2.5

Result: 231 total (DAL 111, PHX 120). Barely went OVER by +2.5 pts

SKIP reasons: Conflicting O/U trends, PHX 0% prediction accuracy, no B2B

Assessment: SKIP CORRECT - Game was essentially on the line (+2.5). No

meaningful edge existed. PHX's 0% accuracy made this untouchable.

PHX trend update: Now 3/4 OVER (75%) in game O/U. Emerging OVER team.

SAS @ LAL: SKIP (HOME B2B auto-skip) -> OVER +15.7

Result: 244 total (SAS 136, LAL 108). Went OVER by +15.7 pts

Auto-SKIP reason: LAL on home B2B (played OKC Feb 9)

Assessment: SKIP CORRECT - Home B2B continues to go OVER (now 5/6, 83%)

but the pattern is too variable to bet on. LAL actually scored UNDER their implied (108 vs 110.0) while SAS exploded for 136 vs 118.4 implied.

Key insight: On home B2B, the HOME team often underperforms (fatigue), but

the AWAY team overperforms enough to push the game OVER. It's the away team exploiting the tired home defense, not the home team scoring more.

Team O/U Rate Updates (after Feb 10)

Team	Games	OVER	UNDER	Rate	Change
IND	6	6	0	100%	5/5 -> 6/6
NYK	4	2	2	50%	33% -> 50%
LAC	5	2	3	40%	50% -> 40%
HOU	6	2	4	33%	40% -> 33%
DAL	4	2	2	50%	33% -> 50%
PHX	4	3	1	75%	67% -> 75%
SAS	4	2	2	50%	33% -> 50%
LAL	4	3	1	75%	67% -> 75%

Notable shifts:

HOU solidifies as UNDER team (33%, 6 games)

PHX and LAL both move to 75% OVER

IND remains the system's most dominant OVER team at 6/6

Cumulative Stats

Game Total Accuracy: 50% (17/34)

Team Total Accuracy: 1/1 (100%) - first tracked team total pick

Last 5 Days (game totals): 100%, 0%, 100%, 0%, N/A

HIGH Confidence: 63% (5/8)

MEDIUM Confidence: 46% (11/24)

OVER picks: 80% (4/5)

UNDER picks: 45% (13/29)

Lessons Learned

2026-02-10: IND@NYK +46.4 OVER confirms IND as system's most reliable OVER

team (6/6, 100%). Auto-SKIP for 30+ PPG was correct due to unmodelable margin.

2026-02-10: Home B2B now 5/6 OVER (83%). The away team exploits tired home

defense - SAS scored 136 at LAL. AUTO-SKIP remains correct.

2026-02-10: DAL team total OVER (1/1) - team totals provide actionable picks

even on low-edge days when game totals are all SKIP.

2026-02-10: Lowest-total auto-SKIP validated again (LAC@HOU 197, -13.2 UNDER).

2026-02-10: PHX emerging as OVER team (75%, 3/4). Monitor for future picks.

Version Notes

v1.5 (2026-02-10): Second consecutive low-action day. 0 game total picks

(all 4 SKIP), 1 team total pick (DAL OVER, correct). IND extends to 6/6 OVER (100%) with +46.4 margin at NYK. Home B2B OVER trend at 5/6 (83%) - SAS@LAL confirms away team scoring explosion pattern. Team total system delivers first tracked win (DAL OVER 110.2 by +0.8). PHX and LAL both move to 75% OVER rate. No rule changes needed - SKIP triggers continue to work as designed.