NBA Over/Under Predictions — February 10, 2026
System Version: v1.5 Overall Record: 17/34 (50%) | HIGH: 5/8 (63%) | MEDIUM: 11/24 (46%)
| OVER: 4/5 (80%) | UNDER: 13/29 (45%)Game Total Picks | Game | Vegas Total | Pick | Predicted | Confidence | Key Factors | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND @ NYK | 224.6 | SKIP | — | — | 30+ PPG missing (Haliburton, Toppin OUT); IND 100% OVER but injuries unmodelable | |||||
| LAC @ HOU | 210.2 | SKIP | — | — | Lowest total on board; defense/pace priced in; no B2B | |||||
| DAL @ PHX | 228.5 | SKIP | — | — | No B2B; conflicting team O/U trends (DAL 33% vs PHX 67%); PHX 0% system accuracy | |||||
| SAS @ LAL | 228.3 | SKIP | — | — | HOME B2B (LAL played Feb 9 vs OKC) → AUTO-SKIP | Total Picks: 0 game totals (all SKIP) Game-by-Game AnalysisGame 1: Indiana Pacers @ New York KnicksVegas Total: 224.6 | Spread: NYK -12.1 | Factor | Analysis | Direction |
| --------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------- | ||||||||
| B2B | Neither team on B2B | Neutral | ||||||||
| Pace | IND fast (100+) vs NYK slow (<97) | Neutral (mixed) | ||||||||
| Injuries | IND: Haliburton OUT (~22 PPG), Toppin OUT (~10 PPG), Zubac Q; NYK: McBride OUT, Robinson OUT, Anunoby Q | UNDER lean but 30+ PPG = auto-SKIP | ||||||||
| Game O/U Rate | IND 100% OVER (5/5) vs NYK 33% OVER (1/3) | Conflicting | ||||||||
| System Accuracy | IND 67% (2/3), NYK 100% (2/2) | N/A |
Decision: SKIP
- IND has the strongest OVER trend in the system (100%, 5/5), but Haliburton (~22 PPG) + Toppin (~10 PPG) = ~32 PPG missing triggers the auto-SKIP for 30+ PPG combined absences
- NYK is an UNDER-leaning team (33% game OVER rate) which conflicts with IND's OVER trend
- Note: IND's 100% OVER rate may have been established WITH Haliburton already out (long-term tear injury) — worth monitoring if this auto-SKIP is overly conservative for priced-in injuries
- Lowest total on the board (210.2) — auto-SKIP trigger. Defense/pace factors already fully priced into this low number
- HOU's slow pace + UNDER game trend (40%) leans UNDER but Vegas already accounts for this
- LAC at 0% system accuracy (0/3 predictions correct) — we can't model LAC games
- No B2B or strong directional signal to justify a pick
- Conflicting team O/U trends: DAL leans UNDER (33%) while PHX leans OVER (67%)
- No B2B for either team — no fatigue anchor
- PHX at 0% system accuracy (0/3) — every PHX prediction has been wrong
- Irving OUT long-term already priced in; Klay Thompson QUESTIONABLE (rest) adds uncertainty
- No strong directional factors aligned
- HOME B2B = AUTO-SKIP — LAL played last night (lost to OKC 110-119)
- Home B2B record: 4/5 OVER (80%) historically but massive variance (+28.7 avg miss when wrong). System correctly auto-SKIPs these
- Conflicting O/U trends (SAS 33% UNDER vs LAL 67% OVER) also present
- DAL team total OVER rate: 75% (3/4 games), avg diff +5.2
- Last 2 games both vs SAS: scored 123 (+13.1) and 125 (+15.0) over implied totals
- Irving OUT long-term — all 4 tracked games were WITHOUT Irving, so the 75% rate already reflects the team without him
- No B2B for DAL (fresh legs)
- 4 games tracked meets minimum threshold
- Only 4 games tracked (minimum sample)
- Klay Thompson QUESTIONABLE (rest) — if he sits, DAL loses another ~15 PPG scorer
- PHX at home with different defensive profile than recent SAS matchups
- PHX team total is 40% OVER (UNDER leaning) — PHX defense may suppress DAL scoring
- Rate >= 70%: ✓ (75%)
- Games tracked >= 4: ✓ (4)
- Avg diff >= ±2.0: ✓ (+5.2)
- No B2B: ✓
- No strong conflicting signals: ⚠️ (Thompson Q, small sample)
- → MEDIUM confidence
Game 2: Los Angeles Clippers @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 210.2 Spread: HOU -7.7 Factor Analysis Direction B2B Neither team on B2B Neutral Pace HOU slow (<97) vs LAC average Slight UNDER Injuries LAC: Beal OUT (hip fracture), Garland OUT (management); HOU: VanVleet OUT (ACL), Adams OUT (surgery) Long-term, priced in Game O/U Rate LAC 50% (2/4) vs HOU 40% (2/5) Slight UNDER System Accuracy LAC 0% (0/3), HOU 60% (3/5) LAC untouchable
Decision: SKIP
Game 3: Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns
Vegas Total: 228.5 Spread: PHX -8.2 Factor Analysis Direction B2B Neither team on B2B Neutral Pace Both average pace Neutral Injuries DAL: Irving OUT (surgery, long-term ~24 PPG), Lively OUT, Klay Q (rest); PHX: Allen OUT, Anthony OUT, Livers OUT Priced in (long-term) Game O/U Rate DAL 33% (1/3) vs PHX 67% (2/3) Conflicting System Accuracy DAL 67% (2/3), PHX 0% (0/3) PHX untouchable
Decision: SKIP
Game 4: San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Total: 228.3 Spread: LAL +8.4 (SAS road favorite) Factor Analysis Direction B2B LAL on HOME B2B (played Feb 9 vs OKC) AUTO-SKIP Pace Both average pace Neutral Injuries SAS: G-League/Two-Way players OUT, Waters OUT (hyperextension); LAL: no injuries listed Minimal impact Game O/U Rate SAS 33% (1/3) vs LAL 67% (2/3) Conflicting System Accuracy SAS 50% (1/2), LAL 100% (1/1) Small samples
Decision: SKIP
Team Total Picks
Implied Team Totals:
| Game | Home Team | Home Implied | Away Team | Away Implied | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND @ NYK | NYK | 118.4 | IND | 106.3 | ||||||||
| LAC @ HOU | HOU | 109.0 | LAC | 101.3 | ||||||||
| DAL @ PHX | PHX | 118.4 | DAL | 110.2 | ||||||||
| SAS @ LAL | LAL | 110.0 | SAS | 118.4 | Qualifying Team Total Picks | Team | Opponent | Implied Total | Pick | Confidence | Trend | Rationale |
| ---- | -------- | ------------- | ---- | ---------- | ------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ||||||
| DAL | @ PHX | 110.2 | OVER | MEDIUM | 75% (3/4), +5.2 avg | Last 2 games +13.1 and +15.0 over implied; Irving absence already baked into rates | Teams Evaluated but Not Qualifying | Team | Rate | Why Skipped | ||
| ---- | ------------------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------- | ||||||||||
| IND | 80% (4/5), +2.3 avg | Haliburton OUT (~22 PPG) creates uncertainty on team scoring OVER | ||||||||||
| LAC | 83% (5/6), +0.1 avg | Avg diff only +0.1 (below ±2.0 minimum); Beal + Garland both OUT | ||||||||||
| NYK | 60% (3/5) | Below 70% threshold | ||||||||||
| HOU | 40% (2/5) | Above 35% threshold (neutral zone) | ||||||||||
| PHX | 40% (2/5) | Above 35% threshold | ||||||||||
| LAL | 67% (4/6) | Below 70% threshold; also on home B2B | ||||||||||
| SAS | 60% (3/5) | Below 70% threshold |
DAL Team Total OVER 110.2 — MEDIUM Confidence
Why OVER:
Risk Factors:
Confidence Check:
Summary
| Type | Picks | SKIPs |
|---|---|---|
| Game Totals | 0 | 4 |
| Team Totals | 1 (DAL OVER) | 6 |
Today's Edge: Slim 4-game slate with no B2B-driven game total setups. The only actionable edge is DAL's consistent team total OVER pattern (75%, +5.2 avg diff) which persists even without Irving. All game totals are SKIP due to auto-SKIP triggers (home B2B, lowest total, 30+ PPG missing) or conflicting/insufficient signals.
Key Monitor: If Klay Thompson is ruled OUT, downgrade DAL team total to LOW/SKIP.