NBA Over/Under Analysis - 2026-02-11

Summary

Game Totals

Metric	Value
Total Picks	1
Correct	0
Accuracy	0%
Skipped	13	Team Totals	Metric	Value
-----------	-----
Total Picks	4
Correct	1
Accuracy	25%

Combined: 1/5 (20%) — Worst day for the system. All 4 HIGH confidence team total picks failed except CLE.

Game Total Results

Game	Pick	Vegas	Actual	Result	Margin
Detroit Pistons @ Toronto Raptors	OVER 224	222.7	208	❌ UNDER	-14.7	Team Total Results	Team	Opponent	Implied	Actual	Pick	Result	Diff
---------------------	--------	-------	------	-----	--------	----
Denver Nuggets	vs MEM	125.8	122	OVER	❌ UNDER	-3.8
Boston Celtics	vs CHI	119.2	124	UNDER	❌ OVER	+4.8
Golden State Warriors	vs SAS	107.1	113	UNDER	❌ OVER	+5.9
Cleveland Cavaliers	vs WAS	128.4	138	OVER	✅ OVER	+9.6	Correct Team Total Picks (1) Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 128.4 → Scored 138 (+9.6)

HIGH — CLE's 100% OVER trend held. Now 4/6 OVER (still 100% excluding pushes).

Wrong Team Total Picks (3)

Denver Nuggets OVER 125.8 → Scored 122 (-3.8) | HIGH — Close miss. DEN's

"+10.5 avg diff" was inflated by a few big games. MEM limited scoring despite missing key players.

Boston Celtics UNDER 119.2 → Scored 124 (+4.8) | HIGH — BOS broke their

UNDER trend (was 0% OVER in 5 games). CHI at 67% team total OVER was classified "not strong opposite" (below 70% threshold) but was enough to push BOS over.

Golden State Warriors UNDER 107.1 → Scored 113 (+5.9) | HIGH — GSW broke

their UNDER trend. SAS scored 126 on away B2B — tanking teams give up easy points, inflating opponent scoring which lifts the depleted team's total too.

Full Slate O/U Results (All 14 Games)

Game	Vegas	Actual	Result	Margin	Pick
ATL @ CHA	232.4	217	UNDER	-15.4	SKIP
WAS @ CLE	238.9	251	OVER	+12.1	SKIP
MIL @ ORL	220.6	224	OVER	+3.4	SKIP
CHI @ BOS	224.8	229	OVER	+4.2	SKIP
IND @ BKN	214.6	225	OVER	+10.4	SKIP
NYK @ PHI	221.9	227	OVER	+5.1	SKIP
DET @ TOR	222.7	208	UNDER	-14.7	OVER ❌
LAC @ HOU	209.1	207	UNDER	-2.1	SKIP
POR @ MIN	238.3	242	OVER	+3.7	SKIP
MIA @ NOP	231.6	234	OVER	+2.4	SKIP
OKC @ PHX	217.2	245	OVER	+27.8	SKIP
SAC @ UTA	231.6	214	UNDER	-17.6	SKIP
MEM @ DEN	238.0	238	PUSH	0.0	SKIP
SAS @ GSW	221.3	239	OVER	+17.7	SKIP	Slate: 9 OVER / 4 UNDER / 1 PUSH (69% OVER) SKIP Validation 30+ PPG Missing SKIPs (8 games)	Game	Result	Margin	Direction
---------	------	------	------------------------------------
MIL @ ORL	OVER	+3.4	Giannis OUT
WAS @ CLE	OVER	+12.1	Young + Mobley OUT
MIA @ NOP	OVER	+2.4	Herro + Powell OUT
POR @ MIN	OVER	+3.7	Lillard + Sharpe OUT
MEM @ DEN	PUSH	0.0	Morant + Edey + Aldama OUT
SAC @ UTA	UNDER	-17.6	Sabonis + LaVine + Murray + Monk OUT
SAS @ GSW	OVER	+17.7	Curry + Porzingis + Butler OUT

Result: 5 OVER / 1 UNDER / 1 PUSH. 30+ PPG missing games went OVER 71% of the time. But SAC@UTA (-17.6 UNDER) shows massive variance persists. Auto-SKIP validated — outcomes are unpredictable despite OVER lean.

Home B2B SKIPs (2 games)

Game	Result	Margin
LAC @ HOU	UNDER	-2.1
OKC @ PHX	OVER	+27.8

Result: 1 OVER / 1 UNDER. HOME B2B continues to show extreme variance (avg absolute margin: 15.0). AUTO-SKIP correct. OKC@PHX was the biggest margin on the slate (+27.8).

Other SKIPs (3 games)

Game	Reason	Result	Margin
ATL @ CHA	Conflicting O/U rates	UNDER	-15.4
CHI @ BOS	Conflicting O/U rates (CHI 75% vs BOS 0%)	OVER	+4.2
IND @ BKN	Both >60% OVER but IND B2B conflict	OVER	+10.4

IND@BKN went OVER +10.4 — IND now 7/7 OVER (100%), system's most reliable

OVER team, hitting even on away B2B

CHI@BOS went OVER — CHI's OVER tendency beat BOS's UNDER tendency

Key Trend Updates

Team	Previous O/U Rate	After Feb 11
IND	100% OVER (6/6)	100% OVER (7/7) — even on B2B
TOR	100% OVER (3/3)	75% OVER (3/4) — regressed
DET	67% OVER (2/3)	50% OVER (2/4) — regressed
BOS	0% OVER (0/5)	17% OVER (1/6) — UNDER trend broke
MEM	100% OVER (4/4)	80% OVER (push doesn't count) — still strong
OKC	80% OVER (4/5)	83% OVER (5/6) — stronger

Wrong Game Total Picks (1)

Detroit Pistons @ Toronto Raptors

Pick: OVER 224

Vegas: 222.7 | Actual: 208

Confidence: MEDIUM

Factors: Both teams >60% OVER rate (DET 67%, TOR 100%)

Margin: -14.7 pts

Why wrong: TOR scored only 95 (implied was 110.6, -15.6 under). TOR's 100%

OVER rate was a 3-game sample that regressed. DET also scored below implied (113 vs 112.1 = roughly push). The blowout nature (DET won by 18) killed pace — losing team stopped competing.

Root cause: Small-sample OVER trends (<4 games) remain unreliable. The

"both teams >60% OVER" trigger needs minimum 4+ games per team.

Cumulative Stats

Game Total Accuracy: 49% (17/35)

Last 5 Days: 0%, 100%, 0%, 0%, 0%

Lessons Learned

2026-02-11: 0/1 game totals, 1/4 team totals = 1/5 combined (20%). Worst day.

2026-02-11: "Both teams >60% OVER" trigger failed on DET@TOR (UNDER -14.7).

TOR 100% OVER was only 3 games — small sample regressed. **Require 4+ games minimum for auto-OVER trigger.**

2026-02-11: HIGH confidence team totals went 1/4 (25%). Team total rate trends

are not as reliable as expected at HIGH confidence.

2026-02-11: Both UNDER team total picks (BOS, GSW) lost. UNDER trends broke

when opponent had 60%+ team total OVER rate (CHI 67%, SAS 67%). **Lower the "opponent not strong opposite" threshold from 70% to 60%.**

2026-02-11: GSW UNDER failed (+5.9) because tanking teams playing at home

against away-B2B opponents create inflated game pace — visitors score easily, inflating both totals.

2026-02-11: DEN OVER 125.8 missed by only -3.8. DEN's "+10.5 avg diff" was

skewed by outlier games. Regression to mean is real — high avg diffs will come down.

2026-02-11: CLE OVER 128.4 correct (+9.6) — CLE now 4 OVER / 0 UNDER / 2 push

out of 6. Most reliable team total OVER team remains CLE.

2026-02-11: IND 7/7 OVER (100%) — hit OVER even on away B2B (IND@BKN +10.4).

Only team with 7+ game OVER streak.

2026-02-11: Slate went 9 OVER / 4 UNDER / 1 PUSH (69% OVER). 30+ PPG missing

games went 5/7 OVER — injury-heavy slates lean OVER.

2026-02-11: MEDIUM confidence game total OVER now 0/2 lifetime (DET@TOR,

earlier miss). MEDIUM OVER picks are not working.