NBA Over/Under Predictions — February 11, 2026
System Version: v1.6 Overall Record: 17/34 (50%) | HIGH: 5/8 (63%) | MEDIUM: 11/24 (46%)
| OVER: 4/5 (80%) | UNDER: 13/29 (45%)Game Total Picks | Game | Vegas Total | Pick | Predicted | Confidence | Key Factors | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL @ ORL | 220.6 | SKIP | — | — | 30+ PPG missing (Giannis ~30); no B2B anchor | ||||||
| ATL @ CHA | 232.4 | SKIP | — | — | Conflicting game O/U (ATL 100% vs CHA 0%); no B2B; small samples | ||||||
| WAS @ CLE | 238.9 | SKIP | — | — | 30+ PPG missing (Young ~26, Mobley ~18 = ~44 combined) | ||||||
| DET @ TOR | 222.7 | OVER | 224 | MEDIUM | Both teams >60% OVER rate (DET 67%, TOR 100%); no B2B; no injuries | ||||||
| NYK @ PHI | 221.9 | SKIP | — | — | NYK away B2B but PHI 75% OVER conflicts; PG OUT + Embiid Q | ||||||
| CHI @ BOS | 224.8 | SKIP | — | — | Conflicting game O/U (CHI 75% vs BOS 0%); no B2B anchor | ||||||
| IND @ BKN | 214.6 | SKIP | — | — | IND away B2B conflicts with both teams >60% OVER; can't pick UNDER | ||||||
| LAC @ HOU | 209.1 | SKIP | — | — | HOME B2B (HOU) + both teams B2B + lowest total on board | ||||||
| MIA @ NOP | 231.6 | SKIP | — | — | 30+ PPG missing (MIA: Herro ~24, Powell ~15 = ~39) | ||||||
| POR @ MIN | 238.3 | SKIP | — | — | 30+ PPG missing (POR: Lillard ~26, Sharpe ~20 = ~46) | ||||||
| OKC @ PHX | 217.2 | SKIP | — | — | HOME B2B (PHX) = AUTO-SKIP | ||||||
| MEM @ DEN | 238 | SKIP | — | — | 30+ PPG missing (MEM: Morant ~25, Edey ~12, Aldama ~10 = ~47) | ||||||
| SAC @ UTA | 231.6 | SKIP | — | — | 30+ PPG missing (SAC: Sabonis ~20, LaVine ~20, Murray ~15 = ~70) | ||||||
| SAS @ GSW | 221.3 | SKIP | — | — | 30+ PPG missing (GSW: Curry ~25, Porzingis ~20 = ~45+) | Total Picks: 1 game total (DET @ TOR OVER) | 13 SKIPsGame-by-Game AnalysisGame 1: Milwaukee Bucks @ Orlando MagicVegas Total: 220.6 | Spread: ORL -10.2 | Factor | Analysis | Direction |
| --------------- | ------------------------------------------------ | ----------------- | |||||||||
| B2B | Neither team on B2B | Neutral | |||||||||
| Pace | ORL slow (<97) vs MIL average | Slight UNDER | |||||||||
| Injuries | MIL: Giannis OUT (~30 PPG), Prince OUT (surgery) | 30+ PPG AUTO-SKIP | |||||||||
| Game O/U Rate | MIL 50% (2/4) vs ORL 33% (1/3) | Slight UNDER | |||||||||
| System Accuracy | MIL 33% (1/3), ORL 100% (1/1) | Small samples |
Decision: SKIP — Giannis OUT (~30 PPG) triggers 30+ PPG missing auto-SKIP. No B2B anchor to support UNDER direction. ORL slow pace leans UNDER but star absence without B2B is unreliable (0/2 on 2026-02-03).
Game 2: Atlanta Hawks @ Charlotte Hornets
Vegas Total: 232.4 Spread: CHA -5.3 Factor Analysis Direction B2B Neither team on B2B Neutral Pace ATL fast (100+) vs CHA average Slight OVER Injuries ATL: Kuminga OUT; Daniels, Johnson, Risacher all Q Uncertainty Game O/U Rate ATL 100% (3/3) vs CHA 0% (0/2) Conflicting System Accuracy ATL 50% (1/2), CHA 100% (1/1) Small samples
Decision: SKIP — Directly conflicting game O/U rates (ATL 100% OVER vs CHA 0% OVER). ATL has 3 QUESTIONABLE starters adding major uncertainty. No B2B anchor. CHA also missing Coby White (~18 PPG). Small sample sizes on both sides.
Game 3: Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 238.9 Spread: CLE -17.8 Factor Analysis Direction B2B Neither team on B2B Neutral Pace CLE slow (<97) vs WAS average Slight UNDER Injuries WAS: Trae Young OUT (~26), Russell OUT; CLE: Mobley OUT (~18), Strus OUT, Wade OUT 30+ PPG AUTO-SKIP Game O/U Rate CLE 50% (2/4) vs WAS 100% (1/1) Neutral/small System Accuracy CLE 0% (0/2), WAS N/A CLE untouchable
Decision: SKIP — Combined 30+ PPG missing (Young ~26 + Mobley ~18 = ~44 PPG). CLE at 0% system accuracy on game totals (0/2 predictions correct). No B2B anchor.
Game 4: Detroit Pistons @ Toronto Raptors
Vegas Total: 222.7 Spread: TOR +1.5 Factor Analysis Direction B2B Neither team on B2B Neutral Pace Both average pace Neutral Injuries DET: clean; TOR: CP3 OUT (~10 PPG), Poeltl Q Minimal Game O/U Rate DET 67% (2/3) vs TOR 100% (3/3) Both OVER System Accuracy DET 50% (1/2), TOR 100% (1/1) Decent
Decision: OVER 224 — Both teams >60% OVER rate triggers auto-OVER lean. DET 67% (2/3) and TOR 100% (3/3) both consistently go OVER. No B2B for either team. No significant injuries (CP3 ~10 PPG, not a star scorer). TOR team total 80% OVER (4/5, +6.0 avg) reinforces direction.
Confidence: MEDIUM
- Both teams >60% OVER rate: ✓
- No B2B: ✓
- No conflicting injuries: ✓
- Within 2 pts of Vegas: ✓ (deviation 1.3 pts)
- Precedent: IND@TOR OVER hit by +16.9 on Feb 8 using same trigger
- DEN team total OVER rate: 83% (5/6), avg diff +10.5 (largest in system)
- Only UNDER was -1.8 vs CLE on Feb 9 (narrow miss)
- Jokic, Murray, and Braun all PROBABLE — core intact
- Gordon OUT (~14 PPG) but not a 20+ PPG star
- No B2B for DEN
- Opponent MEM has 86% OVER on their own team total (same direction, not conflicting)
- Rate >= 80%: ✓ (83%)
- Games tracked >= 5: ✓ (6)
- Avg diff >= ±4.0: ✓ (+10.5)
- No B2B: ✓
- Opponent not strong opposite: ✓ (MEM 86% OVER, same direction)
- → HIGH confidence
- BOS team total OVER rate: 20% (1/5), avg diff -5.7 (strongest UNDER signal)
- BOS has gone UNDER in 4/5 games — only OVER was +9.1 vs HOU on Feb 4
- Tatum OUT (Achilles repair) is long-term and fully priced into lines
- No B2B for BOS
- BOS has 100% system accuracy on game O/U predictions (5/5)
- Opponent CHI is 67% OVER on team totals (moderate opposite tendency)
- CHI at 75% game OVER rate — could push faster pace
- But BOS's UNDER tendency persists regardless of opponent
- Rate <= 25%: ✓ (20%)
- Games tracked >= 5: ✓ (5)
- Avg diff >= ±4.0: ✓ (-5.7)
- No B2B: ✓
- Opponent not strong opposite: ✓ (CHI 67% is below 70% threshold)
- → HIGH confidence
- GSW team total OVER rate: 20% (1/5), avg diff -4.5
- Only OVER was +11.0 vs DET on Jan 30 — 4 straight UNDERs since
- Curry OUT (pain syndrome), Porzingis OUT (management), Butler OUT (ACL) — all long-term, fully priced into the 107.1 implied
- No B2B for GSW
- GSW's depleted roster consistently underperforms scoring expectations
- Opponent SAS is 67% OVER on team totals (moderate opposite)
- SAS on away B2B may play slower but could also mean GSW faces weaker effort
- Rate <= 25%: ✓ (20%)
- Games tracked >= 5: ✓ (5)
- Avg diff >= ±4.0: ✓ (-4.5)
- No B2B: ✓
- Opponent not strong opposite: ✓ (SAS 67% below 70% threshold)
- → HIGH confidence
- CLE team total OVER rate: 100% (3 OVER, 0 UNDER, 2 pushes out of 5 games)
- Zero actual UNDERs — worst outcomes were pushes (+/- 0.1 pts)
- 3 true OVER games averaged +11.2 pts over implied
- No B2B for CLE
- Opponent WAS is 83% OVER on team totals (same direction, not conflicting)
- WAS missing Trae Young, D'Angelo Russell — weak defense tonight
- Implied total 128.4 is highest CLE has faced (previous max was 123.1)
- CLE missing Mobley (~18 PPG), Strus, Wade — but spread already reflects this
- Small effective sample (3 actual OVER games)
- Rate >= 80%: ✓ (100%)
- Games tracked >= 5: ✓ (5)
- Avg diff >= ±4.0: ✓ (+6.7)
- No B2B: ✓
- Opponent not strong opposite: ✓ (WAS 83% OVER, same direction)
- → HIGH confidence (caveat: unprecedented implied total)
- Embiid status for NYK@PHI — if OUT, game becomes more predictable UNDER
- ATL QUESTIONABLE trio (Daniels, Johnson, Risacher) — if all OUT, CHA game becomes more UNDER-leaning
- TOR Poeltl status — if OUT, TOR scoring may still hold per 80% team OVER rate
Predicted Final Score: Detroit Pistons 113 - Toronto Raptors 111
Over/Under Pick: OVER 222.7
Confidence: MEDIUMGame 5: New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ersVegas Total: 221.9 | Spread: PHI -2.4 | Factor | Analysis | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B2B | NYK on AWAY B2B (played Feb 10 vs IND) | UNDER lean | ||
| Pace | NYK slow (<97) vs PHI average | Slight UNDER | ||
| Injuries | PHI: Paul George OUT (suspension, ~23 PPG), Embiid Q (management) | UNDER lean | ||
| Game O/U Rate | NYK 50% (2/4) vs PHI 75% (3/4) | Conflicting | ||
| System Accuracy | NYK 100% (2/2), PHI 33% (1/3) | PHI unreliable |
Decision: SKIP — NYK away B2B leans UNDER but PHI's 75% game OVER rate conflicts. PG OUT (~23 PPG) reduces PHI scoring, but star absence without B2B on PHI's side is unreliable. Embiid QUESTIONABLE (management) adds major uncertainty. PHI at 33% system accuracy.
Game 6: Chicago Bulls @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: 224.8 Spread: BOS -13.5 Factor Analysis Direction B2B Neither team on B2B Neutral Pace Both average Neutral Injuries BOS: Tatum OUT (Achilles, long-term); CHI: Giddey D, Smith D, Jones D Priced in / minor Game O/U Rate CHI 75% (3/4) vs BOS 0% (0/5) Conflicting System Accuracy BOS 100% (5/5), CHI 33% (1/3) BOS dominant
Decision: SKIP — Directly conflicting game O/U rates: CHI 75% OVER vs BOS 0% OVER (strongest UNDER team). No B2B to break the tie. BOS has 100% system accuracy (5/5) but picking UNDER without B2B has been unreliable. CHI has 3 DOUBTFUL players which may reduce scoring. Deadlock = SKIP.
Game 7: Indiana Pacers @ Brooklyn Nets
Vegas Total: 214.6 Spread: BKN -5.1 Factor Analysis Direction B2B IND on AWAY B2B (played Feb 10 @ NYK, scored 137) UNDER lean Pace IND fast (100+) vs BKN average Mixed Injuries BKN: Porter Jr. OUT (knee), Claxton Q; IND: Haliburton OUT (long-term) Priced in Game O/U Rate IND 100% (6/6) vs BKN 67% (2/3) Both OVER System Accuracy IND 67% (2/3), BKN 100% (1/1) Decent
Decision: SKIP — Both teams >60% OVER rate but IND on away B2B creates conflict. Rule: "If both teams have >60% OVER rate, do NOT pick UNDER regardless of B2B." Can't pick UNDER. But B2B fatigue (IND scored 137 last night) makes OVER uncertain. IND is the system's strongest OVER team (100%, 6/6) but yesterday's 137-point explosion increases fatigue risk.
Game 8: Los Angeles Clippers @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 209.1 Spread: HOU -9.3 Factor Analysis Direction B2B BOTH teams on B2B (same matchup yesterday) UNDER lean B2B Detail HOU HOME B2B + LAC AWAY B2B AUTO-SKIP (home B2B) Pace HOU slow (<97) vs LAC average Slight UNDER Injuries Both teams decimated (long-term injuries priced in) Neutral Game O/U Rate HOU 33% (2/6) vs LAC 40% (2/5) Both UNDER
Decision: SKIP — Triple auto-SKIP trigger: (1) HOME B2B for HOU, (2) lowest total on the board at 209.1, (3) both teams B2B. Same two teams played yesterday (HOU won 102-95, which went UNDER -13.2). Both teams lean UNDER (HOU 33%, LAC 40%) but these factors are already fully priced into the 209.1 total.
Game 9: Miami Heat @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total: 231.6 Spread: NOP -0.8 Factor Analysis Direction B2B Neither team on B2B Neutral Pace MIA slow (<97) vs NOP average Slight UNDER Injuries MIA: Herro OUT (~24 PPG), Powell OUT (~15), Rozier OUT (~12); NOP: Murray OUT (Achilles, long-term) 30+ PPG AUTO-SKIP Game O/U Rate MIA 40% (2/5) vs NOP 67% (2/3) Mixed System Accuracy MIA 50% (2/4), NOP 0% (0/2) NOP untouchable
Decision: SKIP — MIA missing Herro (~24 PPG) + Powell (~15 PPG) = ~39 PPG from one team, triggering 30+ PPG auto-SKIP. MIA is decimated (also missing Rozier, Larsson). NOP at 0% system accuracy. No B2B anchor.
Game 10: Portland Trail Blazers @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: 238.3 Spread: MIN -7.4 Factor Analysis Direction B2B Neither team on B2B Neutral Pace Both average Neutral Injuries POR: Lillard OUT (~26 PPG), Sharpe OUT (~20), K. Murray OUT 30+ PPG AUTO-SKIP Game O/U Rate POR 100% (3/3) vs MIN 100% (3/3) Both OVER System Accuracy POR 0% (0/2), MIN 0% (0/1) Both untouchable
Decision: SKIP — POR missing Lillard (~26 PPG) + Sharpe (~20 PPG) = ~46 PPG triggers 30+ PPG auto-SKIP. Both teams at 100% OVER rate (3/3 each) would normally trigger auto-OVER, but 30+ PPG missing overrides. Both teams at 0% system accuracy reinforces SKIP.
Game 11: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Phoenix Suns
Vegas Total: 217.2 Spread: PHX +7.6 Factor Analysis Direction B2B PHX on HOME B2B (played Feb 10 vs DAL) AUTO-SKIP Pace OKC fast (100+) vs PHX average Mixed Game O/U Rate OKC 80% (4/5) vs PHX 75% (3/4) Both OVER System Accuracy OKC 50% (1/2), PHX 0% (0/3) PHX untouchable
Decision: SKIP — HOME B2B = AUTO-SKIP. PHX played at home last night vs DAL. Home B2B now 5/6 OVER (83%) but with massive variance. PHX at 0% system accuracy (0/3). AUTO-SKIP remains the correct call.
Game 12: Memphis Grizzlies @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 238 Spread: DEN -13.6 Factor Analysis Direction B2B Neither team on B2B Neutral Pace DEN fast (100+) vs MEM average Mixed Injuries MEM: Morant OUT (~25 PPG), Edey OUT (~12), Aldama OUT (~10); DEN: Gordon OUT (~14), Jokic/Murray/Braun PROBABLE 30+ PPG AUTO-SKIP Game O/U Rate MEM 100% (4/4) vs DEN 60% (3/5) Both OVER System Accuracy MEM 0% (0/2), DEN 75% (3/4) MEM untouchable
Decision: SKIP — MEM missing Morant (~25) + Edey (~12) + Aldama (~10) = ~47 PPG triggers 30+ PPG auto-SKIP. DEN: Gordon OUT (~14 PPG) but Jokic, Murray, Braun all PROBABLE. Both teams lean OVER but MEM's massive injury load makes game total unpredictable. MEM at 0% system accuracy.
Game 13: Sacramento Kings @ Utah Jazz
Vegas Total: 231.6 Spread: UTA -6.9 Factor Analysis Direction B2B Neither team on B2B Neutral Injuries SAC: Sabonis OUT (~20), LaVine OUT (~20), Murray OUT (~15), Monk OUT (~15), Westbrook OUT 30+ PPG AUTO-SKIP Game O/U Rate SAC 50% (2/4) vs UTA 33% (1/3) Slight UNDER System Accuracy SAC 50% (1/2), UTA 100% (1/1) Small samples
Decision: SKIP — SAC is the most injured team on the slate with ~70 PPG missing (Sabonis, LaVine, Murray, Monk, Westbrook all OUT). Massively exceeds 30+ PPG auto-SKIP threshold. UTA also missing Keyonte George and Walker Kessler. Combined ~95 PPG missing makes this completely unmodelable.
Game 14: San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 221.3 Spread: GSW +7.1 Factor Analysis Direction B2B SAS on AWAY B2B (played Feb 10 @ LAL, scored 136) UNDER lean Pace Both average Neutral Injuries GSW: S. Curry OUT (~25 PPG), Porzingis OUT (~20), Butler OUT (ACL) 30+ PPG AUTO-SKIP Game O/U Rate SAS 50% (2/4) vs GSW 67% (2/3) Mixed System Accuracy SAS 50% (1/2), GSW 50% (1/2) Neutral
Decision: SKIP — GSW missing Curry (~25 PPG) + Porzingis (~20 PPG) + Butler (ACL) = ~65+ PPG triggers 30+ PPG auto-SKIP. SAS on away B2B adds UNDER lean but star absences without B2B on GSW side is unreliable. All injuries are long-term and priced in.
Team Total Picks
Implied Team Totals:
| Game | Home Team | Home Implied | Away Team | Away Implied | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL @ ORL | ORL | 115.4 | MIL | 105.2 | ||||||||
| ATL @ CHA | CHA | 118.9 | ATL | 113.6 | ||||||||
| WAS @ CLE | CLE | 128.4 | WAS | 110.6 | ||||||||
| DET @ TOR | TOR | 110.6 | DET | 112.1 | ||||||||
| NYK @ PHI | PHI | 112.2 | NYK | 109.8 | ||||||||
| CHI @ BOS | BOS | 119.2 | CHI | 105.7 | ||||||||
| IND @ BKN | BKN | 109.9 | IND | 104.8 | ||||||||
| LAC @ HOU | HOU | 109.2 | LAC | 99.9 | ||||||||
| MIA @ NOP | NOP | 116.2 | MIA | 115.4 | ||||||||
| POR @ MIN | MIN | 122.9 | POR | 115.5 | ||||||||
| OKC @ PHX | PHX | 104.8 | OKC | 112.4 | ||||||||
| MEM @ DEN | DEN | 125.8 | MEM | 112.2 | ||||||||
| SAC @ UTA | UTA | 119.3 | SAC | 112.4 | ||||||||
| SAS @ GSW | GSW | 107.1 | SAS | 114.2 | Qualifying Team Total Picks | Team | Opponent | Implied Total | Pick | Confidence | Trend | Rationale |
| ---- | -------- | ------------- | ----- | ---------- | -------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------- | ||||||
| DEN | vs MEM | 125.8 | OVER | HIGH | 83% (5/6), +10.5 avg | Dominant OVER signal; Jokic/Murray PROBABLE; no B2B | ||||||
| BOS | vs CHI | 119.2 | UNDER | HIGH | 20% (1/5), -5.7 avg | Most consistent UNDER team; Tatum OUT priced in; no B2B | ||||||
| GSW | vs SAS | 107.1 | UNDER | HIGH | 20% (1/5), -4.5 avg | Strong UNDER; Curry/KP/Butler all OUT priced in; no B2B | ||||||
| CLE | vs WAS | 128.4 | OVER | HIGH | 100% (3/5), +6.7 avg | Zero actual UNDERs (2 pushes); no B2B; WAS weak defense | Teams Evaluated but Not Qualifying | Team | Rate | Why Skipped | ||
| ---- | ------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ||||||||||
| TOR | 80% (4/5), +6.0 avg | Qualifies on rates but already captured in DET@TOR game total OVER pick | ||||||||||
| MEM | 86% (6/7), +6.2 avg | Qualifies but Edey + Aldama OUT in addition to Morant — too many absences | ||||||||||
| IND | 83% (5/6), +7.0 avg | Qualifies but on away B2B (downgrade) + scored 137 last night (fatigue) | ||||||||||
| PHI | 80% (4/6), +4.3 avg | PG OUT (suspension) + Embiid Q — too much uncertainty | ||||||||||
| WAS | 83% (5/6), +3.9 avg | Avg diff +3.9 below ±4.0 HIGH threshold; multiple starters OUT | ||||||||||
| ATL | 75% (3/5), +2.8 avg | 3 key players QUESTIONABLE; lineup uncertainty too high | ||||||||||
| MIA | 33% (2/6), -3.7 avg | Qualifies UNDER but Herro + Powell + Rozier all OUT; replacement effect | ||||||||||
| HOU | 33% (2/6), -4.8 avg | On home B2B — confidence downgraded to LOW/SKIP |
DEN Team Total OVER 125.8 — HIGH Confidence
Why OVER:
Confidence Check:
BOS Team Total UNDER 119.2 — HIGH Confidence
Why UNDER:
Risk Factors:
Confidence Check:
GSW Team Total UNDER 107.1 — HIGH Confidence
Why UNDER:
Risk Factors:
Confidence Check:
CLE Team Total OVER 128.4 — HIGH Confidence
Why OVER:
Risk Factors:
Confidence Check:
B2B Tracker
| Team | B2B Type | Game Yesterday | Impact on Today's Pick | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYK | Away B2B | vs IND (L 134-137) | SKIP (PHI OVER conflicts) | ||||
| IND | Away B2B | @ NYK (W 137-134) | SKIP (can't pick UNDER vs OVER team) | ||||
| HOU | Home B2B | vs LAC (W 102-95) | AUTO-SKIP | ||||
| LAC | Away B2B | @ HOU (L 95-102) | AUTO-SKIP (home B2B overrides) | ||||
| PHX | Home B2B | vs DAL (W 120-111) | AUTO-SKIP | ||||
| SAS | Away B2B | @ LAL (W 136-108) | AUTO-SKIP (30+ PPG GSW injuries) | Summary | Type | Picks | SKIPs |
| ----------- | -------------------------------------------- | ----- | |||||
| Game Totals | 1 (DET@TOR OVER) | 13 | |||||
| Team Totals | 4 (DEN OVER, BOS UNDER, GSW UNDER, CLE OVER) | — |
Today's Edge: Massive 14-game slate but injury-ravaged. 8 of 14 games trigger the 30+ PPG missing auto-SKIP. 2 more are HOME B2B auto-SKIPs. The only game total pick is DET@TOR OVER — both teams >60% OVER rate with no B2B or significant injuries.
Team totals provide more action: 4 HIGH confidence picks led by DEN's dominant +10.5 avg diff and BOS/GSW's consistent UNDER patterns. CLE's 100% rate (zero actual UNDERs) is compelling despite an elevated implied total.
Key Monitors: