NBA Over/Under Predictions — February 12, 2026
System Version: v1.7 Overall Record: 17/35 (49%) | HIGH: 5/8 (63%) | MEDIUM: 11/25 (44%)
| OVER: 4/6 (67%) | UNDER: 13/29 (45%)Game Total Picks | Game | Vegas Total | Pick | Predicted | Confidence | Key Factors | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL @ OKC | 215.6 | SKIP | — | — | Both B2B; OKC HOME B2B; Giannis likely OUT (~30 PPG); lowest total | ||||||
| POR @ UTA | 239.3 | SKIP | — | — | Both B2B; UTA HOME B2B; POR 30+ PPG missing (Lillard+Sharpe) | ||||||
| DAL @ LAL | 234.3 | SKIP | — | — | 30+ PPG missing: Doncic OUT (~33), Irving OUT (~25), Flagg OUT | Total Picks: 0 game totals | 3 SKIPsGame-by-Game AnalysisGame 1: Milwaukee Bucks @ Oklahoma City ThunderVegas Total: 215.6 | Spread: OKC -12.8 | Factor | Analysis | Direction |
| --------------- | ----------------------------------------------------- | ----------------- | |||||||||
| B2B | BOTH teams on B2B (MIL away B2B, OKC home B2B) | AUTO-SKIP | |||||||||
| Pace | OKC fast (100+) vs MIL average | Mixed | |||||||||
| Injuries | Giannis likely still OUT (~30 PPG, Right Calf Strain) | 30+ PPG AUTO-SKIP | |||||||||
| Game O/U Rate | MIL 50% (2/4) vs OKC 80% (4/5) | OKC leans OVER | |||||||||
| System Accuracy | MIL 33% (1/3), OKC 50% (1/2) | Low samples |
Decision: SKIP — Triple AUTO-SKIP trigger: (1) OKC HOME B2B = AUTO-SKIP, (2) both teams on B2B, (3) Giannis likely still OUT (~30 PPG, was OUT yesterday with Right Calf Strain — not on today's 7 AM report but likely persists). OKC scored 136 last night at PHX and now plays at home — fatigue risk despite home court. Lowest total on the board at 215.6 — factors already priced in.
Game 2: Portland Trail Blazers @ Utah Jazz
Vegas Total: 239.3 Spread: POR -7.4 Factor Analysis Direction B2B BOTH teams on B2B (POR away B2B, UTA home B2B) AUTO-SKIP Pace Both average Neutral Injuries POR: Lillard OUT (~26), Sharpe OUT (~20), Murray OUT, Thybulle OUT 30+ PPG AUTO-SKIP Game O/U Rate POR 100% (3/3) vs UTA 33% (1/3) Conflicting System Accuracy POR 0% (0/2), UTA 100% (1/1) POR untouchable
Decision: SKIP — Triple AUTO-SKIP trigger: (1) UTA HOME B2B = AUTO-SKIP, (2) both teams on B2B, (3) POR missing Lillard (~26 PPG) + Sharpe (~20 PPG) = ~46 PPG triggers 30+ PPG auto-SKIP. Conflicting game O/U rates (POR 100% vs UTA 33%) add uncertainty. POR at 0% system accuracy (0/2 predictions correct). Despite high 239.3 total, too many conflicting signals.
Game 3: Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Total: 234.3 Spread: LAL -7.4 Factor Analysis Direction B2B Neither team on B2B Neutral Pace Both average Neutral Injuries DAL: Irving OUT (~25 PPG, knee surgery), Flagg OUT, Lively OUT, Marshall Q, Martin Q 30+ PPG AUTO-SKIP LAL: Doncic OUT (~33 PPG, hamstring), Ayton Q (knee) 30+ PPG AUTO-SKIP Game O/U Rate DAL 50% (2/4) vs LAL 75% (3/4) LAL leans OVER System Accuracy DAL 67% (2/3), LAL 100% (1/1) Small samples
Decision: SKIP — Combined 30+ PPG missing from BOTH teams. DAL missing Irving (~25 PPG, knee surgery) + Flagg (midfoot sprain) + Lively (foot surgery) with Marshall and Martin QUESTIONABLE. LAL missing Doncic (~33 PPG, hamstring strain) with Ayton QUESTIONABLE. Combined ~58+ PPG missing makes this completely unmodelable. No B2B anchor.
Team Total Picks
Implied Team Totals:
| Game | Home Team | Home Implied | Away Team | Away Implied | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL @ OKC | OKC | 114.2 | MIL | 101.4 | ||||
| POR @ UTA | UTA | 123.4 | POR | 116.0 | ||||
| DAL @ LAL | LAL | 120.9 | DAL | 113.5 | Qualifying Team Total Picks_No qualifying team total picks today._ Teams Evaluated but Not Qualifying | Team | Rate | Why Skipped |
| ---- | ------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ||||||
| DAL | 80% (4/5), +4.3 avg | Qualifies on rates but Irving + Doncic + Flagg + Lively all OUT; roster gutted | ||||||
| OKC | 67% (4/6), +6.9 avg | Below 70% threshold; on home B2B | ||||||
| LAL | 57% (4/7), +1.9 avg | Neutral rate; Doncic OUT; Ayton Q | ||||||
| MIL | 50% (3/6), +4.9 avg | Neutral rate; on away B2B; Giannis likely OUT | ||||||
| UTA | 57% (4/7), -1.2 avg | Neutral rate; on home B2B | ||||||
| POR | 50% (3/7), +4.7 avg | Neutral rate; on away B2B; Lillard + Sharpe OUT | B2B Tracker | Team | B2B Type | Game Yesterday | Impact on Today's Pick | |
| ---- | -------- | ----------------- | ------------------------ | |||||
| MIL | Away B2B | @ ORL (W 116-108) | AUTO-SKIP (OKC home B2B) | |||||
| OKC | Home B2B | @ PHX (W 136-109) | AUTO-SKIP | |||||
| POR | Away B2B | @ MIN (L 109-133) | AUTO-SKIP (UTA home B2B) | |||||
| UTA | Home B2B | vs SAC (W 121-93) | AUTO-SKIP | Summary | Type | Picks | SKIPs | |
| ----------- | ----- | ----- | ||||||
| Game Totals | 0 | 3 | ||||||
| Team Totals | 0 | — |
Today's Edge: None. All 3 games have multiple AUTO-SKIP triggers. Two games feature both teams on B2B with home B2B auto-SKIPs (MIL@OKC, POR@UTA). The third game (DAL@LAL) has ~58+ PPG missing across both teams with no B2B anchor.
This is the second all-SKIP day in the last 4 days (Feb 9 was the first). Small 3-game slates with heavy B2B and injury loads offer zero edge.
Key Monitors:
- Giannis status for MIL@OKC — if returns, MIL@OKC becomes more interesting but OKC home B2B still forces SKIP
- Marshall and Martin status for DAL — if both OUT, DAL has ~70+ PPG missing from usual rotation
- Ayton status for LAL — if OUT, LAL scoring may be impacted