NBA Over/Under Analysis - 2026-02-19
Summary
Game Totals
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Total Picks | 1 |
| Correct | 0 |
| Accuracy | 0% |
| Skipped | 9 | Team Totals | Metric | Value |
| ----------- | ----- |
| Total Picks | 3 |
| Correct | 2 |
| Accuracy | 67% | Game Total Results | Game | Pick | Vegas | Actual | Result | Margin |
| ------------------------------- | -------- | ----- | ------ | -------- | ------ |
| Toronto Raptors @ Chicago Bulls | OVER 233 | 231.5 | 211 | ❌ UNDER | -20.5 | Team Total Results | Team | Opponent | Implied | Actual | Pick | Result | Diff |
| ------------------- | -------- | ------- | ------ | ----- | -------- | ----- |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | vs BKN | 123.3 | 112 | OVER | ❌ UNDER | -11.3 |
| Houston Rockets | @ CHA | 110.5 | 105 | UNDER | ✅ UNDER | -5.5 |
| San Antonio Spurs | vs PHX | 118.1 | 121 | OVER | ✅ OVER | +2.9 | Correct Team Total Picks (2)- Houston Rockets UNDER 110.5 → Scored 105 (-5.5)
|
MEDIUM
San Antonio Spurs OVER 118.1 → Scored 121 (+2.9) | MEDIUMWrong Team Total Picks (1)
Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 123.3 → Scored 112 (-11.3) | HIGHCorrect Game Total Picks (0)
_No correct picks_
Wrong Game Total Picks (1)
Toronto Raptors @ Chicago Bulls
Pick: OVER 233
Vegas: 231.5 | Actual: 211
Confidence: LOW
Factors: b2b_both, pace_mixed
Margin: -20.5 pts
Why wrong: Game went UNDER - scoring lower than expectedCumulative Stats
Game Total Accuracy: 47% (17/36)
Last 5 Days: 100%, 0%, 0%, 0%, 0%Lessons Learned
2026-02-11: Slate 9 OVER / 4 UNDER / 1 PUSH (69% OVER). 30+ PPG missing games
went 5/7 OVER — injury slates lean OVER
⚠️ Factor "major_injury" underperforming at 42% - consider reducing weight
🚨 Predictions >4 pts from Vegas are failing at 33% - ENFORCE ±4 LIMIT
🔴 MEDIUM confidence below 50% - review criteria
2026-02-19: Wrong picks missed by avg 20.5 pts - totals were volatile