NBA Over/Under Predictions — February 19, 2026

System Version: v1.7 Overall Record: 17/35 (49%) | HIGH: 5/8 (63%) | MEDIUM: 11/25 (44%)

Decision: SKIP — Combined ~72 PPG missing across both teams massively exceeds the 30+ PPG auto-SKIP threshold. WAS is missing their entire core (Trae Young, AD, Sarr, Russell). IND missing Haliburton (~22 PPG). Both teams' IND 100% game OVER streak is compelling but the sheer volume of absences makes this unmodelable.

Game 2: Atlanta Hawks @ Philadelphia 76ers

Vegas Total: 237.6

Decision: SKIP — PHI missing Embiid (~33 PPG) + Paul George (~23 PPG) = ~56 PPG from one team, massively exceeding 30+ PPG auto-SKIP. ATL only has 3 games tracked in game O/U (below 4-game threshold for auto-triggers). Vegas total of 237.6 is high, suggesting replacement scoring is priced in. No B2B anchor.

Game 3: Brooklyn Nets @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Vegas Total: 230.2

Decision: SKIP — No B2B. CLE slow pace leans UNDER but only 1 factor. CLE at 0% system accuracy on game O/U predictions (0/2). BKN only has 3 games tracked (below 4-game minimum). Neutral game O/U signals with no clear edge. CLE's team total OVER tendency is better captured in the team total pick below.

Game 4: Houston Rockets @ Charlotte Hornets

Vegas Total: 216.5

Decision: SKIP — CHA missing White (~18 PPG) + Bridges (~16 PPG) = ~34 PPG triggers 30+ PPG missing consideration. HOU's long-term absences (VanVleet, Adams) are fully priced in. Both teams lean UNDER (HOU 33%, CHA 0%) but CHA has only 2 games tracked. No B2B anchor for UNDER confidence. HOU team total handled separately below.

Game 5: Detroit Pistons @ New York Knicks

Vegas Total: 222.2

Decision: SKIP — Both teams at 50% neutral game O/U rate. No B2B. NYK slow pace leans UNDER but only 1 factor. DET missing Duren and Stewart (suspension) affects interior but unlikely to shift total significantly. Insufficient factors aligned.

Game 6: Toronto Raptors @ Chicago Bulls

Vegas Total: 231.5

Decision: OVER 233 — Both teams >60% OVER rate triggers auto-OVER lean. TOR 75% (3/4) and CHI 75% (3/4) both consistently go OVER. No B2B for either team. Both have 4+ games tracked (meeting minimum). Post All-Star break rest should not hurt scoring. CHI has Giddey and Jones both QUESTIONABLE which adds uncertainty.

Confidence: LOW

• Both teams >60% OVER rate: ✓
• No B2B: ✓ (neutral, not supporting)
• Pace alignment: ✗ (both neutral, no boost)
• Only 2 MEDIUM factors (team O/U history + within Vegas)
• CHI QUESTIONABLE players add downside risk
• TOR broke OVER trend on Feb 11 (scored 95 vs DET)
• Auto-OVER trigger supports direction but factors are thin

Predicted Final Score: Toronto Raptors 119 - Chicago Bulls 114

Over/Under Pick: OVER 231.5

Confidence: LOW Game 7: Phoenix Suns @ San Antonio Spurs Vegas Total: 228.6	Spread: SAS -7.5	Factor	Analysis	Direction
B2B	Neither team on B2B	Neutral
Pace	Both average	Neutral
Injuries	PHX: Brooks OUT (susp), Anthony OUT; SAS: clean	Minor
Game O/U Rate	PHX 75% (3/4) vs SAS 50% (2/4)	Mixed
System Accuracy	PHX 0% (0/3), SAS 50% (1/2)	PHX 0%

Decision: SKIP — PHX at 75% OVER but SAS at 50% neutral creates insufficient alignment. Only PHX leans OVER but PHX has 0% system accuracy on game O/U (0/3 — worst team in system). No B2B anchor. No pace alignment. SAS team total handled separately below.

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Game 8: Boston Celtics @ Golden State Warriors

Vegas Total: 212.2

Spread: GSW +5.6	Factor	Analysis	Direction
B2B	Neither team on B2B	Neutral
Pace	Both average	Neutral
Injuries	BOS: Tatum OUT (~26 PPG, season); GSW: Curry OUT (~27), Butler OUT (~20 ACL)	30+ PPG + lowest total
Game O/U Rate	BOS 0% (0/5) vs GSW 67% (2/3)	Conflicting
System Accuracy	BOS 100% (5/5), GSW 50% (1/2)	BOS dominant

Decision: SKIP — Double auto-SKIP: (1) Combined ~73 PPG missing (Tatum ~26, Curry ~27, Butler ~20) massively exceeds 30+ PPG threshold, (2) lowest total on the board at 212.2 — all factors already priced in. BOS 0% game OVER rate (strongest UNDER team) vs GSW 67% creates conflict. BOS/GSW UNDER team total trends both flagged as "weakening" after Feb 11 failures.

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Game 9: Orlando Magic @ Sacramento Kings

Vegas Total: 223.5

Spread: SAC +8.7	Factor	Analysis	Direction
B2B	Neither team on B2B	Neutral
Pace	ORL slow (<97) vs SAC fast (100+)	Neutral (pace splits)
Injuries	ORL: Wagner OUT (~22 PPG); SAC: Sabonis OUT (~20), LaVine OUT (~20), Hunter OUT	30+ PPG AUTO-SKIP
Game O/U Rate	ORL 33% (1/3) vs SAC 50% (2/4)	Mixed
System Accuracy	ORL 100% (1/1), SAC 50% (1/2)	Small samples

Decision: SKIP — Combined ~62 PPG missing (Wagner ~22, Sabonis ~20, LaVine ~20) massively exceeds 30+ PPG auto-SKIP. SAC is decimated with 3 starters out. ORL slow pace vs SAC fast pace creates pace split (neutral). No B2B. Completely unmodelable.

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Game 10: Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Clippers

Vegas Total: 225.9

Spread: LAC +4.2	Factor	Analysis	Direction
B2B	Neither team on B2B	Neutral
Pace	DEN fast (100+) vs LAC average	Slight OVER
Injuries	DEN: Gordon OUT (~14); LAC: Beal OUT (~18, season), Garland OUT (~21, mgmt)	30+ PPG AUTO-SKIP
Game O/U Rate	DEN 60% (3/5) vs LAC 40% (2/5)	Opposing
System Accuracy	DEN 75% (3/4), LAC 0% (0/3)	LAC untouchable

Decision: SKIP — Combined ~53 PPG missing (Gordon ~14, Beal ~18, Garland ~21) exceeds 30+ PPG auto-SKIP. Opposing game O/U tendencies (DEN 60% OVER vs LAC 40% UNDER). LAC at 0% system accuracy (0/3). LAC absences are long-term/priced in but volume still creates unpredictability.

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Team Total Picks

Implied Team Totals:

Game	Home Team	Home Implied	Away Team	Away Implied
IND @ WAS	WAS	115.1	IND	117.8
ATL @ PHI	PHI	119.5	ATL	118.2
BKN @ CLE	CLE	123.3	BKN	107.0
HOU @ CHA	CHA	106.0	HOU	110.5
DET @ NYK	NYK	113.3	DET	109.0
TOR @ CHI	CHI	113.0	TOR	118.5
PHX @ SAS	SAS	118.1	PHX	110.6
BOS @ GSW	GSW	103.3	BOS	108.9
ORL @ SAC	SAC	107.4	ORL	116.1
DEN @ LAC	LAC	110.9	DEN	115.1	Qualifying Team Total Picks	Team	Opponent	Implied Total	Pick	Confidence	Trend	Rationale
----	--------	-------------	-----	----------	--------------------	--------------------------------------------------------
CLE	vs BKN	123.3	OVER	HIGH	100% (4/6), +7.2 avg	Most reliable OVER team; zero actual UNDERs; no B2B
HOU	@ CHA	110.5	UNDER	MEDIUM	29% (2/7), -5.2 avg	Most reliable UNDER team; HOU slow pace; CHA 40% neutral
SAS	vs PHX	118.1	OVER	MEDIUM	71% (5/7), +9.0 avg	Highest avg diff in system; 5 of last 5 hits OVER	Teams Evaluated but Not Qualifying	Team	Rate	Why Skipped
----	-------------------	------------------------------------------------------------------------
IND	86% (6/7), +7.5 avg	Qualifies on rates but Haliburton OUT (~22 PPG); WAS missing everyone
WAS	86% (6/7), +3.7 avg	Avg diff +3.7 below ±4.0 HIGH threshold; Trae/AD/Sarr/Russell all OUT
NYK	71% (5/7), +6.7 avg	Qualifies for MEDIUM but capped at 3 picks; DET@NYK already SKIP on game
DET	71% (5/7), +6.4 avg	Qualifies for MEDIUM but capped at 3 picks; 33% system accuracy
DEN	71% (5/7), +8.4 avg	Qualifies but flagged as "Regressing" — missed by -3.8 on Feb 11
BOS	33% (2/6), -3.9 avg	UNDER trend "Weakening" (was 20%); broke on Feb 11 (+4.8); fragile
GSW	33% (2/6), -2.8 avg	UNDER trend "Weakening" (was 20%); broke on Feb 11 (+5.9); fragile
CHA	40% (2/6), -3.3 avg	Rate 40% above 35% MEDIUM threshold; only 2 UNDER games
LAC	75% (6/8), -0.1 avg	Rate qualifies but avg diff -0.1 is essentially zero — no real edge

CLE Team Total OVER 123.3 — HIGH Confidence

Why OVER:

• CLE team total OVER rate: 100% (4 OVER, 0 UNDER, 2 pushes out of 6 games)
• Zero actual UNDERs — worst outcomes were pushes (±0.1 pts)
• 4 true OVER games averaged +10.9 pts over implied
• Most recent: +9.7 vs WAS on Feb 11 (scored 138 vs 128.3 implied)
• No B2B (post All-Star break, fully rested)
• Opponent BKN team total rate is 50% (neutral, not opposing)
• BKN missing Claxton but no major scorers out — shouldn't suppress CLE offense

Risk Factors:

• CLE implied 123.3 is high but not unprecedented (faced 128.3 on Feb 11 and
went OVER by +9.7)
• Massive 16.3-point spread means possible garbage time/starters resting in 4th
• CLE 0% game O/U system accuracy (0/2) — but team totals tracked separately

Confidence Check:

• Rate >= 80%: ✓ (100%)
• Games tracked >= 5: ✓ (6)
• Avg diff >= ±4.0: ✓ (+7.2)
• No B2B: ✓
• Opponent not strong opposite: ✓ (BKN 50% neutral)
• → HIGH confidence

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HOU Team Total UNDER 110.5 — MEDIUM Confidence

Why UNDER:

• HOU team total OVER rate: 29% (2/7), avg diff -5.2 (strongest UNDER signal)
• 5 of 7 games went UNDER implied total
• Only OVERs: +5.2 vs IND (Feb 2) and +7.6 vs OKC (Feb 7)
• Last 3 games: -11.5, -6.9, -7.2 — accelerating UNDER trend
• HOU is slow pace (<97 poss) — naturally suppresses their own scoring
• No B2B (post All-Star break, fully rested)
• VanVleet OUT (season) and Adams OUT (season) are long-term and fully priced in
• Opponent CHA team total rate is 40% — not a strong opposite direction (below
60%)

Risk Factors:

• UNDER team total trends are "fragile and regress faster than OVER trends" per
Feb 11 lessons (BOS and GSW both broke that day)
• CHA missing White (~18 PPG) and Bridges — depleted defense could allow HOU to
score more
• HOU's OVERs both came against fast-pace teams; CHA is average pace

Confidence Check:

• Rate <= 35%: ✓ (29%)
• Games tracked >= 4: ✓ (7)
• Avg diff >= ±2.0: ✓ (-5.2)
• No B2B: ✓
• Opponent not strong opposite: ✓ (CHA 40%, below 60% threshold)
• Rate > 25% so does not qualify for HIGH (need <= 25%)
• → MEDIUM confidence

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SAS Team Total OVER 118.1 — MEDIUM Confidence

Why OVER:

• SAS team total OVER rate: 71% (5/7), avg diff +9.0 (highest avg diff in
system)
• Last 5 games ALL hit OVER: +5.2, +17.7, +17.9, +17.6, +11.8
• Recent surge: 4 consecutive games with +11.8 to +17.9 margin over implied
• No B2B (post All-Star break, fully rested)
• SAS is healthy — only Plumlee (reconditioning) and Waters (knee) OUT, both
minor
• Opponent PHX team total rate is 57% (neutral, not opposing direction)
• SAS home as 7.5-point favorites — should control pace and scoring

Risk Factors:

• SAS early-season games were UNDER (-4.4 vs CHA, -3.0 vs ORL) — recent surge
may regress
• Average diff of +9.0 is inflated by recent high-margin games
• PHX missing Brooks (defense) could increase SAS scoring further (supports
OVER)
• 71% rate is exactly at the MEDIUM threshold — borderline

Confidence Check:

• Rate >= 70%: ✓ (71%)
• Games tracked >= 4: ✓ (7)
• Avg diff >= ±2.0: ✓ (+9.0)
• No B2B: ✓
• Opponent not strong opposite: ✓ (PHX 57% OVER = 43% UNDER, below 60%)
• → MEDIUM confidence

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B2B Tracker

Team	B2B Type	Notes
—	—	Post All-Star break. No teams played on Feb 18

Zero B2B situations tonight. All teams are rested after the All-Star break. This eliminates our most reliable O/U signal (B2B fatigue) and limits actionable picks.

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Summary

Type	Picks	SKIPs
Game Totals	1 (TOR@CHI OVER LOW)	9
Team Totals	3 (CLE OVER, HOU UNDER, SAS OVER)	—

Today's Edge: Post All-Star break 10-game slate with zero B2B situations. Our most reliable signal is absent. 5 of 10 games trigger the 30+ PPG missing auto-SKIP due to widespread injuries across the league. The remaining games lack sufficient factor alignment without B2B.

The only game total pick is TOR@CHI OVER at LOW confidence — both teams at 75% OVER rate triggers the auto-OVER lean, but thin supporting factors cap it at LOW.

Team totals provide the best action tonight: CLE's dominant 100% OVER rate (zero actual UNDERs) earns HIGH confidence against a neutral BKN opponent. HOU's consistent UNDER pattern (29%, -5.2 avg diff, 3 straight UNDER games) is the safest UNDER play. SAS's recent scoring surge (5 straight OVERs, +9.0 avg diff) rounds out the card.

Key Monitors:

• CHI Giddey + Jones status — if both OUT (~25 PPG combined), TOR@CHI downgrade
to SKIP
• CLE starters usage in blowout — 16.3-point spread means possible early
benching
• NYK OG Anunoby status — if OUT, DET@NYK game dynamic shifts
• GSW Porzingis status — if OUT (joining Curry + Butler), GSW at historic