NBA Over/Under Predictions - 2026-02-23 (v2.0)

System Record: 17/36 (47%) | HIGH: 5/8 (63%) | MEDIUM: 11/25 (44%) | LOW: 1/3 (33%)

Game Total Picks

GameVegas TotalPickPredictedConfidenceKey Factors
SAS @ DET232.3SKIP——No B2B, neutral pace (diff 2.4), both 50% O/U rate, both blowout regression
SAC @ MEM233.4SKIP——30+ PPG missing both sides (Morant+Edey+Clarke+Aldama / LaVine+Sabonis)
UTA @ HOU228.7SKIP——No B2B, both slow pace (UTA 20th, HOU 26th) but no B2B trigger for UNDER

Game Total Picks: 0

SKIPs: 3

Game Analysis

San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Vegas Total: 232.3

Spread: DET -1.2

FactorDetailDirection
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
B2BNeither teamNeutral
PaceSAS 100.3 (rank 9) vs DET 97.9 (rank 21), diff 2.4Neutral
InjuriesSAS: Plumlee OUT. DET: Stewart OUT (suspension). No major scorers missingNeutral
Game O/U RateSAS 50% (4g), DET 50% (4g)Neutral
Blowout RegressionSAS won by 17 on 2/21, DET won by 16 on 2/21 — both flaggedUNDER lean
Public Betting61% OVER / 39% UNDER, no RLMNeutral
PythagoreanSAS: -0.2 luck diff (normal), DET: -0.3 luck diff (normal)Neutral
Four FactorsNo extreme matchup differentialsNeutral

Pick: SKIP — Zero primary signals. Both teams neutral on game O/U. No B2B. Blowout regression flags on both teams provide a weak UNDER lean, but insufficient without B2B or pace alignment to anchor a pick.

Sacramento Kings @ Memphis Grizzlies

Vegas Total: 233.4

Spread: MEM -3.6

FactorDetailDirection
B2BNeither teamNeutral
PaceSAC 102.6 (rank 2) vs MEM 100.8 (rank 7), both top-10OVER lean
InjuriesSAC: LaVine OUT (~24 PPG), Sabonis OUT (~19 PPG), Hunter OUT. MEM: Morant OUT (~25 PPG), Edey OUT, Clarke OUT, Aldama OUT, Anderson DOUBTFULAUTO-SKIP
Game O/U RateSAC 50% (4g), MEM 100% (4g)OVER lean
Bounce-BackSAC lost by 17 on 2/21 (bounce-back candidate), MEM lost by 16 on 2/21 (bounce-back candidate)Neutral (cancels)
Public Betting57% OVER / 43% UNDER, no RLMNeutral
PythagoreanMEM: -2.2 luck diff (normal), SAC: +2.1 luck diff (normal)Neutral

Pick: SKIP — AUTO-SKIP triggered: Both teams missing 30+ PPG combined. SAC missing ~43 PPG (LaVine + Sabonis + Hunter). MEM missing Morant (~25 PPG) + Edey + Clarke + Aldama. Replacement player effects are unmodelable at this injury scale.

Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets

Vegas Total: 228.7

Spread: HOU -13.2

FactorDetailDirection
B2BNeither teamNeutral
PaceUTA 98.0 (rank 20) vs HOU 96.5 (rank 26), both slow, diff 1.5UNDER lean
InjuriesUTA: Kessler OUT, Nurkic OUT, JJJ OUT, George QUESTIONABLE, Markkanen PROBABLE. HOU: VanVleet OUT (season), Adams OUT, Tate OUTAlready priced in
Game O/U RateUTA 33% (3g), HOU 33% (6g)UNDER lean
Bounce-BackHOU lost by 2 on 2/21 — no flag. UTA lost by 9 on 2/20 — no flagNeutral
Public Betting53% OVER / 47% UNDER — nearly split, no RLMNeutral
PythagoreanHOU: -3.0 luck diff (underperforming, normal), UTA: +3.1 luck diff (overperforming flag)Slight UNDER lean

Pick: SKIP — Both teams lean UNDER (33% game O/U each) and both are slow pace. UTA overperforming Pythagorean (+3.1) suggests regression which could suppress scoring further. However, the ONLY proven UNDER pattern is "away B2B + slow pace" (2/2). Without B2B = no trigger. HOU's UNDER signal is captured better via team total below.

Team Total Picks

TeamOpponentImplied TotalPickConfidenceRateAvg DiffKey Reason
MEMvs SAC118.5OVERMEDIUM88% (7/8)+5.9Strongest OVER team in system. Capped from HIGH: 0% system accuracy
SAS@ DET115.5OVERMEDIUM71% (5/7)+9.0Highest avg diff in system. Blowout regression is minor vs +9.0
HOUvs UTA121.0UNDERMEDIUM29% (2/7)-5.2Most reliable UNDER team. Slow pace (rank 26) confirms

**Team Total Picks: 3

Skipped Teams: DET (71% OVER but blowout regression + 4th priority), SAC (43% — neutral), UTA (57% — neutral)**

Team Total Analysis

Memphis Grizzlies OVER 118.5

  • Rate: 88% OVER (7/8 games), avg diff +5.9
  • Qualifies for HIGH but capped at MEDIUM: MEM meets all HIGH criteria
    • (>=80% rate, 5+ games, avg diff >=4.0, no B2B). Capped because MEM has 0% system prediction accuracy (0/2 correct)
  • Injury caveat: MEM missing Morant + Edey + Clarke + Aldama + Anderson
    • (doubtful). Massive absences but Vegas implied total (118.5) already accounts for this. MEM has consistently exceeded implied totals even in depleted games
  • Bounce-back: MEM lost by 16 on 2/21 — bounce-back candidate could boost
    • scoring
  • Pythagorean: -2.2 luck diff (normal) — no adjustment needed
  • Risk: Rotation uncertainty with this many missing players

    • San Antonio Spurs OVER 115.5

  • Rate: 71% OVER (5/7 games), avg diff +9.0 (highest in system)
  • MEDIUM criteria met: >=70% OVER rate, 4+ games, avg diff well above +2.0
  • Blowout regression: SAS won 139-122 on 2/21 — flag raised. However, +9.0
    • avg diff is so extreme that a single regression game is a minor concern vs the overwhelming baseline. SAS has exceeded by 17+ points in 3 of their last 4 OVER games
  • No opponent conflicts: DET at 71% OVER — same direction, no suppression
    • risk
  • Pythagorean: -0.2 luck diff — perfectly calibrated, no adjustment
  • System accuracy: SAS 1/2 (50%) in system predictions. Small sample

    • Houston Rockets UNDER 121.0

  • Rate: 29% OVER (2/7 games), avg diff -5.2 (strongest UNDER signal)
  • MEDIUM criteria met: <=35% OVER rate, 4+ games, avg diff |-5.2| well above
    • 2.0
  • Pace confirmation: HOU rank 26 (96.5 pace) — 4th slowest in NBA. Defensive
    • identity team. Slow pace + UNDER rate alignment is strong
  • Opponent check: UTA at 57% OVER — below 60% threshold for conflict. No
    • issue
  • Pythagorean: HOU -3.0 luck diff (underperforming, normal range). UTA +3.1
    • (overperforming) — suggests UTA may score less than usual, further helping UNDER
  • System accuracy: 3/5 (60%) on HOU picks — best accuracy for any
    • frequently-picked team

    New Factor Summary (v2.0)

    Referee Crews

    Assignment data unavailable for tonight's games (scraping returned garbled results). No referee edge applied. Baseline crew avg totals range from 214.6 to 228.3 — a 13+ point spread that could provide edge when data is available.

    Pythagorean Win Expectation

    TeamRecordExpectedLuck DiffFlag
    SAS40-1640.2-15.8-0.2Normal
    DET42-1342.3-12.7-0.3Normal
    SAC12-469.9-48.1+2.1Normal
    MEM21-3423.2-31.8-2.2Normal
    UTA18-3914.9-42.1+3.1Overperforming
    HOU34-2137.0-18.0-3.0Normal

    Bounce-Back / Blowout Regression

    		TeamLast GameMarginFlag
    -----------------------------------------
    SASW vs SAC 2/21+17Blowout regression
    DETW vs CHI 2/21+16Blowout regression
    SACL vs SAS 2/21-17Bounce-back
    MEML vs MIA 2/21-16Bounce-back
    HOUL vs NYK 2/21-2None
    UTAL vs MEM 2/20-9None

    Public Betting %

    		GameOver %Under %RLM
    --------------------------
    SAS @ DET61%39%None
    SAC @ MEM57%43%None
    UTA @ HOU53%47%None

    No Reverse Line Movement detected on any game today. Public action is moderate and aligned with current lines.

    Overall Summary

    Thin 3-game slate with no back-to-backs. Two games significantly impacted by injuries. The system correctly identifies this as a low-opportunity day for game totals.

  • Total picks: 3 (all team totals, all MEDIUM confidence)
  • Game total picks: 0 (all 3 SKIPs — no B2B to anchor)
  • Best bet: HOU UNDER 121.0 — elite 71% UNDER rate with slow pace
    • confirmation and Pythagorean edge (UTA overperforming)
  • Secondary: SAS OVER 115.5 — 71% OVER rate with system's best avg diff
    • (+9.0)
  • Tertiary: MEM OVER 118.5 — 88% OVER rate but heavy injury uncertainty

_Opening lines recorded for CLV tracking: SAS@DET 232.3, SAC@MEM 233.4, UTA@HOU 228.7_